Today offers a five-game slate beginning at 7:05 pm ET.
Point Guard
Studs
Damian Lillard is the most expensive guard on the menu. However, most of the value on this slate emanates from the cheaper plays. Lillard provides value as a tournament pivot, but he’s at least $1,200 more expensive than the next point guard. On a night with five games, salary may be better spent elsewhere.
Values
The DraftKings decision centers around Kemba Walker, Kyrie Irving, and Kyle Lowry. Irving is the only one with a positive Opponent Plus/Minus, and he leads the triumvirate with a 29.6 percent usage rate. He’s also the cheapest among the three, and the Raptors have allowed opposing point guards to average a +2.21 Plus/Minus on DK this season. If you can only afford one, Irving has the best peripherals to utilize in cash games.
Affording two out of three isn’t off the table. Because Lowry struggled against the Cavaliers earlier this season — a team that’s limited point guards to 35.3 percent Consistency — he harbors more tournament appeal. Walker, who was limited by the Cavaliers in his last game, will face the Timberwolves. They’ve allowed opposing teams to convert 64.4 percent of their attempts within five feet of the rim, and Walker leads the Hornets in attempts inside that area.
It’s not much of a choice on FanDuel: Irving costs at least $600 less than any of the four point guards already mentioned and he has already compiled 35.2 FD points per game against the Raptors in October. The Raptors were recently torched by Kemba and Russell Westbrook in consecutive games, elevating Irving to the pole position on FD.
Leverage Play
Lillard qualifies as a leverage play, and Dennis Schroder provides a cheap alternative with the news that Goran Dragic is doubtful to play. The Heat will play on the second night of a back-to-back, and that may turn people off Schroder if the conclusion is that this game won’t be competitive enough to field four full quarters of starters. He’s cleared his implied point total on FD in four of the past five games, and point guards are so cheap that he’s bound to get overlooked.
Shooting Guard
Stud
DeMar DeRozan will matchup against J.R. Smith, who missed the previous game with a tweaked ankle, and/or Mike Dunleavy. Neither stands much of a chance against the league-leader in scoring and third overall in usage rate. He’s a near-lock to provide value, and he should be considered in all cash game lineups.
Values
The Bulls haven’t played since Saturday and Rajon Rondo (ankle) is probable to play. Dwyane Wade has had three full days of rest, and when he’s been provided at least two full days between games Wade has responded with a +3.60 Plus/Minus on DK and a +3.34 Plus/Minus on FD. His ownership hasn’t risen above seven percent in FD guaranteed prize pools this season, but if Rondo can’t play expect Wade to have a bigger hand in the offense, potentially elevating his ceiling.
Lou Williams has thrived in the fourth quarter, averaging 8.1 of his 16.5 points point per game in the final stanza. In fact, he’s scored 10 total points in the first quarter this season. Williams has exceeded salary-based expectations in eight straight games despite averaging 23.0 minutes per game. The Lakers and Nets rank top-six in pace and bottom-two in opponent’s field goal percentage this season. The Nets-Lakers Over/Under of 221 is a slate best, and even though the seven-point spread suggests that the Nets might get blown out it shouldn’t be a hindrance: Brook Lopez is returning, and most of the rotation players should be fresh, as their minutes were capped at 25 in last night’s blowout.
Leverage Play
The Timberwolves don’t play until an hour after lineup lock. Zach LaVine missed the previous game due to a sore right knee, an announcement that occurred moments before the game started. There’s an advantage to be had in tournaments on a small slate by purposefully rostering players with opaque statuses. Shooting guards have averaged a +2.77 Plus/Minus on 66.7 percent Consistency against the Hornets this season, which seems counterintuitive, with Nicolas Batum as the Hornets starting shooting guard.
Small Forward
Studs
LeBron James is the most expensive option on both sites today. Earlier this season, he recorded a season-low 40.0 DraftKings points against the Raptors. He’s a difficult expenditure on DK at a season-high $10,300, a salary that requires him to score just 2.6 points below his yearly average in order to match expectations. Nonetheless, his Projected Plus/Minus of +5.6 makes him an easier target on FD. His stats this season are nearly identical to Russell Westbrook’s with the notable exception of points and shot attempts. James has been forced create more without a backup point guard on the team, and that’s led to a career-low 27.7 percent usage rate and a career-high 42.7 percent assist rate while nearly averaging a triple-double.
Values
Brandon Ingram is a minimum-salary rotation player on FD and available for $3,300 on DK for the fourth straight game. He’s battled knee and ankle injuries early in the season, but the injuries have reportedly subsided. He’s currently entrenched in the second unit as a secondary playmaker, and the Lakers are currently implied to score a slate-best 114 points. The 6.5-point spread combined with Luke Walton’s penchant for giving his starters and backups similar minutes strengthens the argument for Ingram.
On 90.9 percent Consistency, small forwards are averaging a +5.33 Plus/Minus against the Timberwolves this season. Rudy Gay was the most expensive opponent at $6,200, and today’s opposing small forward, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, leads the team with 8.3 rebounds per game. He’ll likely be tasked with guarding Andrew Wiggins, but Kidd-Gilchrist costs $4,900 on DK, and he said the back issues are no longer a problem.
Leverage Play
It has to be Andrew Wiggins, especially if we don’t know LaVine’s status before lineups lock. With LaVine off the court, Wiggins leads the team with a 38.3 percent usage rate. Additionally, if LaVine doesn’t play, coach Tom Thibodeau could recycle the starting lineup from last game, when Nemanja Bjelica started at small forward and Wiggins shifted down to shooting guard. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist would be the lone foil in this dastardly plan, one that could pay off big based on the Hornets’ inability to restrain shooting guards this season.
Power Forward
Stud
Paul Millsap will face either Luke Babbitt or Derrick Williams. Before knowing Millsap’s price, I’m already invested. He’s dropped to a season-low $7,400 FD ($100 cheaper than Kevin Love) and a season-low $7,700 DK. The FD price point is more enticing for the extra cushion it provides, with the Hawks facing a Heat team playing on the second night of a back-to-back potentially without Goran Dragic, who sat the previous game with a sprained left ankle.
Value
Trail Blazer opponents average a league-high 48.6 rebounds per game, and their 46.5 percent rebounding rate is last in the league. The Bulls are third in rebounding percentage and led by Taj Gibson on a per possession basis. Nikola Mirotic is another choice, since he’s cheaper than Gibson, but he’s been erratic this season and profiles better as a tournament play. Gibson possesses an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.0 on DK, the best mark among starting power forwards.
Leverage Play
Kevin Love has recorded four straight double-doubles, and even though LeBron James was the only starter to play in the fourth quarter of Saturday’s game Love has exceeded salary-based expectations in six straight contests. As mentioned above, he’s $100 more expensive than Millsap on DK and FD, but in the Cavaliers first meeting with the Raptors Love recorded 39 FD points — a mark Millsap hasn’t reached in his last three games.
Center
Studs
Hassan Whiteside’s Plus/Minus of +5.02 on DK and + 6.21 on FD rivals the best marks among centers. He’ll face the team with the second best record against centers this season: The Hawks are holding opposing centers to an average of -2.12 Plus/Minus on FD and -3.05 Plus/Minus on DK. Despite recording double-digit rebounds in every game this season, Whiteside failed to match salary-based expectations when facing DeMarcus Cousins, Steven Adams, and Rudy Gobert. The matchup against Dwight Howard invites an Opponent Plus/Minus of -6.75 on DK, and the Hawks have allowed the fewest rebounds per game to the opposition.
Karl-Anthony Towns costs $100 less than Whiteside, but as you’ll read in the value section this is the type of slate to pay down at center. Towns faced the Hornets twice in the preseason with varying results. In the game Marvin Williams played, Towns recorded four points and six rebounds in 21 minutes. In the game Frank Kaminsky started in place of Williams, Towns scored 15 points and grabbed nine rebounds in 15 minutes. Williams will likely guard Towns, and that creates ambiguity on how Towns will perform. I’m not calling Williams the Towns Stopper, but he’s shown an ability to slow him down once already.
Values
Dwight Howard is cheaper than Towns and Whiteside on both sites, but the disparity is larger on DK. The Heat — and by extension, Whiteside — have allowed opposing centers to average a +2.37 Plus/Minus on 64.7 percent Consistency on FD. Howard’s Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.45 on DK is second among centers on the slate.
Robin Lopez was close to a no-show in the first four games of the season. Since then, he’s averaged 9.5 points and 7.8 rebounds in 30.9 minutes per game — second most in the last six games. The rebounds and minutes are key in his matchup against the Trail Blazers. As mentioned in the power forward segment with Gibson, the Trail Blazers yield rebounds to opponents at a league-high rate.
Mason Plumlee averaged 33.85 FD points per game against the Bulls last season. Today, he’s implied to score 20.15 points, a number he’s reached in all but one game this season — the blowout loss to the Clippers that limited him to 20 minutes. Plumlee’s Projected Plus/Minus of +4.6 on FD falls shy of Lopez’s, and since Plumlee costs $700 more he’s bound to be overlooked.
Leverage Play
I gather Whiteside classifies due to his position-high salary and terrible matchup. Brook Lopez also enters the leverage play fray. He’s a mid-tier center on a slate in which the value plays are plentiful. With Jeremy Lin (hamstring) out of the lineup, Lopez has averaged a team-high 31.3 percent usage rate and 30.9 DK points per game. The Lakers have allowed a league-high field goal percentage in the restricted area this season, and that’s where Lopez feasts.
News Updates
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