The Week 11 NFL Dashboard
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Saints at Panthers
Week 11 kicks off with what Vegas projects as a potential shoot-out, with a high total of 51 points. When these two teams met in Week 6 in the Superdome, it was a high-scoring affair finishing in a 41-38 victory for the Saints. The Panthers are four-point home favorites and implied to score 27.5 points; the Saints are implied for 23.5 points.
New Orleans Saints
Writer: Tyler Buecher
QB – Drew Brees
In their Week 6 matchup, Brees went off, throwing for 465 passing yards and four touchdowns. The Panthers secondary hasn’t improved since then: Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Replacement (DVOA) currently ranks them 19th against the pass, and they’ve given up the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season on DraftKings. Brees has fared quite well on the road recently, averaging 23.4 fantasy points per game in his last three away games. Considering how well Brees fared last time he played Carolina — and the fact that he leads all quarterbacks this week with a 38.6-point projected ceiling on DK (per our Player Models) — Brees should be a terrific tournament option with perhaps lowered ownership because of his matchup with Cam Newton.
RB – Mark Ingram
Over the past two weeks, Ingram has averaged 15 touches per game. That’s a bit of a decline from the 18 touches he saw prior to his benching. Carolina ranks seventh in rush DVOA, and if Ingram continues to see fewer touches, he could find it difficult to hit value. The Panthers haven’t allowed a running back to eclipse 15.5 FanDuel points since Week 1. However, Ingram does have a 97 percent Bargain Rating on FanDuel, as well as a 19.4-point projected ceiling. He has some tournament appeal in this high-total game.
RB – Tim Hightower
Hightower saw just 10 total touches last week and was out-snapped by Ingram 22 to 14. While this backfield looks to be a committee, it’s trending into a split that favors Ingram over Hightower. Hightower has a dangerously-low 1.5-point projected floor on FD; he’s a risky play that should be used only in GPPs.
RB – Travaris Cadet and John Kuhn
Cadet has just four total touches in his last three games and Kuhn has just one touch inside the opponent’s 10-yard line since Week 5. Neither running back is seeing enough snaps to warrant much DFS consideration.
WR – Brandin Cooks
Cooks runs most of his routes from both the right side of the formation and in the slot. That should leave him running most of his routes against James Bradberry and Leonard Johnson. Bradberry ranks as Pro Football Focus’ 29th-ranked cornerback and has done well limiting opposing receivers this year. Johnson has taken over slot duties, and while he hasn’t played a ton there this season, he’s allowing a whopping 0.33 fantasy points per route defended. Cooks leads all Saints wide receivers in market share of receiving yards, receiving touchdowns, and Air Yards. Only A.J. Green has more Pro Trends than Cooks on FD.
WR – Willie Snead
Snead should also get the benefit of Johnson’s coverage: He runs 78 percent of his routes in that area. Snead is coming off of a two-touchdown performance and should see a bit of a spike in ownership. He has seen 8.3 targets per game over his last four outings but was held to just a 4-47-0 stat line in his earlier encounter with Carolina. He makes for a better play on DK, where he’s the cheapest of the three Saints wideouts at $5,000; Snead has a +4.53 Projected Plus/Minus and 73 percent Bargain Rating on DK.
WR – Michael Thomas
If Thomas’ disappointing Week 10 performance lowers his ownership by even a small margin, we should be pouncing on the opportunity to roster him. Daryl Worley has struggled in coverage, giving up 0.29 fantasy points per route defended and grades as PFF’s 87th-ranked cornerback. Thomas has been making big plays all season and Brees continues to look his way. Thomas leads all Saints receivers in target market share (22.0 percent) and has caught 73.9 percent of his targets. Once again, he leads all wide receivers in Upside this week on FD and owns a 98 percent Bargain Rating.
TE – Coby Fleener
Fleener’s inconsistency this season has made him difficult to trust, but he makes for an intriguing GPP dart throw this week in a high-scoring game. The Panthers have given up the third-most touchdowns, fifth-most fantasy points, and a +2.1 Plus/Minus to opposing tight ends on DK. While everyone chases the Saints wide receivers, it could pay off to go contrarian and roster Fleener instead. While Fleener does own an 18.8-point projected ceiling, he also possesses a 2.7-point floor, perfectly encapsulating his volatility.
Carolina Panthers
Writer: Tyler Buecher
QB – Cam Newton
Newton leads all quarterbacks in projected fantasy points on DK (25.8), which is a projection that falls right in line with how he’s performed historically against the Saints:
Newton surpassed that point total in Week 6, scoring 31 fantasy points and three total touchdowns. With Vegas projecting another shoot-out in this game, it makes sense that Newton could once again surpass that expected point total. He has seven DK Pro Trends in his favor, and New Orleans gives up a position-leading +4.8 Plus/Minus to opposing QBs. Newton’s rushing ability provides a reliable floor that makes him in play for both cash and tournaments this week.
RB – Jonathan Stewart
New Orleans is giving up the fourth-most fantasy points, fourth-most touchdowns, and a whopping +2.6 Plus/Minus on FD to opposing running backs this season. They have allowed six different running backs to eclipse 20-plus fantasy points against them. Stewart is averaging 18.3 touches after returning from injury, and at just $7,000, he makes for an appealing tournament play with his 23.4-point projected ceiling.
RB – Fozzy Whittaker
Whittaker’s 0.4-point projected floor on DK makes him a very risky play this week despite the positive matchup.
RB – Mike Tolbert
Tolbert has five total touches in his last three games. He has yet to score a touchdown this season.
WR – Kelvin Benjamin
While the touchdowns may have disappeared for Benjamin (four in his first four weeks, zero since), the volume certainly has not. Benjamin has averaged 9.5 targets per game over his last four; in a high-scoring matchup like this one, that’s a trend that has fared quite well for receivers:
Benjamin leads all Carolina receivers in market share of targets, yards, and touchdowns this season. He draws Delvin Breaux, who’s anticipated to shadow Benjamin this week. Breaux is returning from injury but had struggled in coverage to begin the season, allowing 0.29 fantasy points per route defended. Benjamin has a 25.1-point projected ceiling on DK and is certainly worth rostering in GPPs.
WR – Ted Ginn Jr.
Ginn has five receptions in each of his last four games, averaging 7.3 targets per game over that span. He hasn’t made the big plays we saw last season, but he’s shown a fairly safe floor recently. The Saints have allowed the eighth-most pass plays of 25-plus yards this season (20). Adding the safe floor with the potential for big plays, Ginn could be an intriguing GPP option.
WR – Philly Brown
Brown has moved to third in the pecking order as far as snaps go, but he hasn’t been particularly fantasy-relevant. He has just one game over 50-plus receiving yards and just one receiving touchdown this season.
WR – Devin Funchess
Don’t look now, but Funchess has scored in two of the last four games. He has seen at least four targets in four straight. With New Orleans allowing the third-most red-zone trips to opposing receivers, there’s certainly some touchdown upside to chase between Benjamin, Funchess, and Greg Olsen.
TE – Greg Olsen
The Saints rank 26th in DVOA against opposing tight ends and are allowing a +1.9 Plus/Minus to the position on DK. Earlier this season when these two teams played, Olsen finished with a 6-94-0 stat line. In his last four games against the Saints, Olsen has averaged a 8.3-107.3-.75 stat line. He owns a top-three median, ceiling, and floor projection among all tight ends this week on DK and makes for a terrific play in both cash and GPPs.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
