The Week 10 NFL Dashboard
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49ers at Cardinals
In this second divisional matchup of the year, the Cardinals will host the 49ers as slate-high 13-point favorites. This game has a high Vegas total of 48 points. The Cardinals are implied for a slate-high 30.75 points; the 49ers, a slate-low 17.25 points.
San Francisco 49ers
Writer: Bryan Mears
QB – Colin Kaepernick
Cash-pernick came through last week for those bold enough to roster Kaep in cash games, putting up 27.2 DraftKings points at a low $5,600 salary against the miserable Saints defense. Unfortunately, this week he has a much tougher task, as he’ll face an Arizona defense that ranks third overall in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) and is also third in pass DVOA. Interestingly, Kaep did a lot of his damage through the air last week: He still rushed for 23 yards on five attempts, but he threw for 398 yards and two TDs on 39 attempts — there’s an Aaron Rodgers joke somewhere around here. Kaep has hit salary-based expectations in every game this year, but this is a miserable matchup. He is the lowest-rated DK QB in the Bales Model.
RB – Carlos Hyde
You’ll probably understand the theme here pretty quickly: At a slate-low 17.25 implied points and as 13-point dogs, the 49ers shouldn’t cause much excitement. Hyde is still nursing a shoulder injury and coach Chip Kelley said that the team won’t make any decisions about his availability until after practice Saturday. He’s officially listed as questionable right now.
Regardless, he has very low ratings and a poor -0.8 Opponent Plus/Minus on DK against an Arizona team that is also top-10 in rush DVOA. However, it is important to note that Hyde had a great game against the Cardinals earlier this year, putting up 23.4 DK points at home. In that game, he was inefficient running the ball, posting a 3.7 yards per carry, but he got into the end zone once and caught all six of his targets in the pass game for 36 yards. Arizona ranks third in the league in pass production allowed to RBs. That may have been an outlier game for Hyde.
RB – DuJuan Harris
Last week, Harris led the 49ers RBs in snaps (53), rushing market share (58.82 percent), and target market share (15.38 percent). If Hyde were unable to go in Week 10, Harris would likely keep his lead role for another week. Unfortunately, that’s not a particularly exciting role considering how stout the Cardinals are against the run. He had an incredible game last week, scoring 24.2 DK points thanks to 59 rushing yards, five receptions, 83 receiving yards, and a touchdown. However, that was against New Orleans’ 29th-ranked defense. Harris’ salary has increased from the minimum to $4,100 on DK and he holds a low 5.8-point projected floor.
WR – Quinton Patton
Ah, how delicious it is to feast against the Saints defense. After failing to hit double-digit DK points since Week 1 (11 points), Patton exploded for six catches on nine targets for 106 yards in Week 9 — a 19.6-point outing. This week will be tougher, although his individual matchup isn’t all that terrifying: Per our NFL Matchups tool, Patton is likely to run most of his routes against cornerback Marcus Cooper, who has a poor Pro Football Focus coverage grade of 50.0 and ranks 94th at the position. For that reason, Patton isn’t a total fade, but his up-and-down target totals certainly make him way too volatile to roster in cash games.
WR – Torrey Smith
Smith has been limited in practice this week and is questionable to play in Week 10. He’s expected to ‘play’ (cough).
He’s been terrible this season: He has scored more than 6.5 DK points in just one game since Week 2. However, that one game is contextually important: That 16.6-point outing — he had three catches on seven targets for 76 yards and a score — came in his only healthy game with Kaep as his QB. There’s a chance that Smith gets better in the second half of the season in this new offense. However, this is not the week to test that theory, as he’s expected to line up opposite CB Patrick Peterson, who is PFF’s 16th-ranked corner and has a stellar coverage grade of 81.6. Pass this week.
WR – Jeremy Kerley
Per the Market Share Report, Kerley leads the 49ers in target share over the last four games at 23.85 percent, and he’s been the leader just about all year. A couple weeks ago, he actually led the entire NFL in market share of his team’s targets over a four-game span. That makes the fact that he’s only $3,700 on DK — and hasn’t been above $4,000 all year — pretty darn impressive. This guy has been the WR1 all year for his team and even led the NFL in target share — and he has still put up only 5.2, 3.5, and 3.2 DK points over his past three games. Just how inefficient do you have to be to make that happen? Suffice it to say: Pass on him against this stout Cardinals defense.
TE – Vance McDonald
It’s always dangerous writing about a team the week after they play the Saints: Even McDonald ate at that feast, catching three of his six targets for 17.4 DK points. That is 7.1 more fantasy points than he had combined in all games since Week 2 of the season. Don’t be a victim of recency bias.
Arizona Cardinals
Writer: Bryan Mears
QB – Carson Palmer
Palmer has been quite a disappointment this season but had his best game of the year last week against the awful Panthers secondary: He completed 35 of his 45 attempts for 363 yards and three touchdowns — a 27.5-point DK outing. Palmer seems to be fairly matchup-dependent this year, as his only two games with 20-plus fantasy points have been against bottom-10 secondaries in Carolina and Tampa Bay. This week, he’ll face a 49ers defense that ranks 28th overall (per DVOA) but has fairly significant splits: They rank dead last against the run but ‘only’ 19th against the pass. Palmer missed the first matchup against the 49ers this year — a game in which David Johnson had 36.5 DK points on a 27-152-2 line — and it’s possible the team will just ride DJ again. The Cardinals have the highest-implied total of the slate, so Palmer’s viable in tournaments, but this might not be the dream spot it superficially seems to be.
RB – David Johnson
This is the dream spot: The 49ers are the absolute worst team in the league against the run and are facing the league’s best running back. As stated above, DJ had a ridiculous 27-152-2 line against the 49ers earlier this year and added in three catches for 28 yards for good measure. He has at least four targets in every game this year, with 22 in the last two games. He had a ‘down’ game last week, rushing for only 24 yards on 10 attempts against the Panthers (he had seven catches for 84 yards though) but those rushing numbers actually might be good news for this week. Those numbers could reflect how willing the Cardinals are to attack a defense’s weakest point, which was Carolina’s passing defense last week and is definitely the 49ers’ rushing defense this week. No need to belabor this: DJ has easily the slate’s highest projected ceiling (38.3 DK points) and FantasyLabs projected ownership (31-40 percent).
RB – Andre Ellington
Ellington saw six carries and zero targets in the Cardinals’ first matchup against the 49ers this year. It’s been going around the DFS community this week that this is such a beautiful spot for the Cardinals that even Ellington should get involved. I’m skeptical.
WR – Larry Fitzgerald
Despite what this looks like . . .
Fitz has actually had incredibly steady volume this season: He has seen at least seven targets in every game this year — 25 in the last two, by the way — and he’s caught at least five balls for double-digit fantasy points. I know, he hasn’t met salary-based expectations in every game — he’s been expensive and (rightfully) is this week at $7,600 DK and $7,200 FD — but the opportunities have been there regardless of matchup. He balled out in his first game against the 49ers, scoring 26.1 DK points thanks to a 6-81-2 line on eight targets. That said, he’s expected to draw coverage from slot corner Jimmie Ward, who has been a rare bright spot for the 49ers defense: He ranks as PFF’s 30th-best corner and has a solid 78.4 coverage grade. Fitz has low five to eight percent FantasyLabs projected ownership considering this high total. Most people will be on Johnson instead.
WR – John Brown
Brown has been dealing with complications due to his sickle cell trait this year, but he’s been very good when healthy and given opportunities in the offense. Brown (hamstring) finished the week not on the injury report, practicing fully on Friday. He should play this week.
He has a terrific matchup this week coming out of the bye, as he’ll line up outside against CB Keith Reaser, who is PFF’s 103rd-ranked corner and owns a poor 46.2 coverage grade. He struggled against the 49ers in his last game, but that was due to injuries, and he had 27 targets in the two games prior. This all comes down to Brown’s health and his role in the offense. Thankfully, this is a great spot to take the risk: He’s a potential WR1 at just $4,900 DK on a team implied for the most points in the slate.
WR – J.J. Nelson
I’m obviously intrigued by Nelson, as he was the featured image of this week’s Market Share Report. The reason: While he has owned 14.1 percent of the Cardinals’ targets over the past four games — good for third on the team behind Fitz and DJ — he has owned 27.62 percent of the Air Yards — good for first on the team:
He has 19 targets in his last two games (12 last game) and put up a nice 8-79-2 line in Week 8 against the Panthers at only $3,000 DK. And this isn’t variance: Check out his rising snap counts over the last two games. He’s essentially replaced Michael Floyd as the third starting wideout:
He’s $4,200 DK and $5,600 FD this week and could easily see eight to 10 targets again — and not just targets. Valuable targets. He has a nice +2.4 Projected Plus/Minus on FD this week and a nine to 12 percent FantasyLabs projected ownership.
Head coach Bruce Arians this Friday said that Nelson is now essentially the team’s No. 2 WR. He is a worthwhile tournament dart.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
