The Week 10 NFL Dashboard
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Packers at Titans
The Packers will travel to Nashville, Tennessee, this Sunday as 2.5-point favorites over the Titans. The game could turn into a shootout, as the current Vegas total of 49.5 points is the third-highest total of Week 10. The Packers are currently implied to score 26 points and the Titans are implied to score 23.5 points. Let’s take a look at who will be taking the field.
Green Bay Packers
Writer: Ian Hartitz
QB – Aaron Rodgers
Rodgers threw 40-plus passes four times in 2015. This season, he’s already matched that total in eight games. While this excess amount of pass attempts is great for Rodgers’ fantasy prospects, he’ll need to overcome his history of struggling on the road:
As our Trends tool shows, Rodgers has been significantly better at Lambeau Field over the past three seasons: He’s posted a +4.7 Plus/Minus and averaged 24.55 DraftKings points at home, but those marks have fallen to a +0.2 Plus/Minus and 20.12 DK points on the road. Rodgers is priced at $7,600 on DK with a 63 percent Bargain Rating and has a good matchup against a Titans defense that has allowed 3.7 points above salary-based expectations to quarterbacks over the past 12 months.
RB – James Starks
Starks returned to practice this week and reportedly looked back to normal. He’s officially listed as questionable and expected to play. Still, even if he’s active, he’s far from guaranteed to step into a featured role in the offense.
Starks had a brutal start to the season, as he averaged just 1.8 yards per carry and failed to find the end zone in his four games prior to injuring his knee. He’s a very risky play this week due to the uncertainty surrounding his touches and the fact that he has a tough matchup against a Titans defense that has allowed just four rushing touchdowns this season – tied for the third-fewest in the league.
RB/WR – Ty Montgomery
Montgomery was left off of the final injury report last week but still played a limited number of snaps due to his sickle cell disease. He’s expected to have closer to a full workload this week and is nearing a full-time switch to running back. Coach Mike McCarthy said Wednesday that Montgomery is capable of being a three-down back thanks to his ability and solid frame (he weighs 225 pounds!). The more carries for him the better, as he’s averaged an impressive 5.7 yards per carry on his 21 rushes this season. Montgomery is priced at $6,200 on FanDuel with a 99 percent Bargain Rating and has two to four percent FantasyLabs projected ownership.
WR – Jordy Nelson
Nelson has put together an excellent first half of the season and is now on pace for a 76-1,018-14 line. He’s been a featured part of the offense for all but one week:
Per the RotoViz Game Splits App, Nelson has averaged 18.43 PPR points in his seven games this season with five-plus targets. His one poor performance came when he was targeted just four times against the Bears at home. Still, Nelson has (like his quarterback) struggled to be quite as good away from Lambeau Field:
His difference isn’t as significant as Rodgers’, but Nelson has still historically underperformed on the road. He’s priced at $7,700 on FD with a 96 percent Bargain Rating and has 17-20 percent FantasyLabs projected ownership – tied for the third-highest mark among all wide receivers. Nelson is expected to see a lot of Jason McCourty, PFF’s 31st-highest graded cornerback this season.
WR – Randall Cobb
Cobb was limited during last week’s game, although he came off the bench in the second half and managed to score a touchdown. He reportedly didn’t suffer any setbacks and practiced fully on Friday. He finished the week not on the injury report, and McCarthy has said that Cobb is expected to be “a full-time player” this week.
Part of the reason for his recent turnaround has been his presence in the red zone. Cobb had fewer red-zone targets than Davante Adams as recently as Week 5, but he’s since been fed the ball inside the opponent’s 20-yard line. Cobb has 10 red-zone targets this season – tied for the 13th-highest mark among all wide receivers. He’s priced at $6,600 on FD with a 96 percent Bargain Rating and has a nice matchup against Brice McCain, PFF’s 69th-highest graded cornerback this season.
WR – Davante Adams
Adams’ targets this season deserve a closer look:
He’s been about as volatile as any receiver in the league on a week-by-week basis. His 16-target game came when the Packers basically didn’t have an active running back and his 14-target game came when both Montgomery and Cobb were sidelined. Adams has managed to receive seven-plus targets in four of his six other games and this should probably be about the amount of targets we expect for him the rest of the season. While the days of double-digit targets could be over, Adams is still capable of putting together a big fantasy performance on seven to eight targets, as his average of 1.93 fantasy points per target is the 19th-highest mark among all wide receivers this season. He’s priced at $7,200 on FD with an 83 percent Bargain Rating and has a 6.4-point projected floor.
TE – Richard Rodgers and Jared Cook
Cook returned to practice this week but is listed as doubtful. He theoretically has a chance to play in Week 10, but a Week 11 return is more realistic.
Meanwhile, Rodgers’ 10 targets last week were more than he had in his previous four games. The Packers’ tight end situation is volatile enough considering Rodgers has thrown to his tight ends at a bottom-eight rate over the past 12 months; adding another tight end to the puzzle won’t make things easier. If both tight ends are active, they’re both very risky plays due to the uncertainty surrounding their snaps and the fact that neither managed to surpass 35 yards during their three games together.
Tennessee Titans
Writer: Ian Hartitz
QB – Marcus Mariota
Mariota is reportedly dealing with an ankle injury but isn’t expected to be in danger of missing any time. The injury comes at a bad time, as he’s been playing some of the best football of his career in recent weeks. Mariota has posted a +9.84 Plus/Minus with 100 percent Consistency and has averaged 25.76 DK points over his past five games. Despite his recent stretch of excellence, his ankle injury will need to be closely monitored, as he’s historically averaged fewer fantasy points when he hasn’t been a threat to run:
Per PFR, Mariota has averaged nearly three fewer fantasy points in his games with three or less rushing attempts. He hasn’t been terrible when forced to rely on his passing ability, but it makes sense that defenses have had more success defending him when he hasn’t utilized his unique running ability. Mariota is priced at $5,700 on DK with an 83 percent Bargain Rating, although he has a tough matchup against a Packers defense that has allowed one point below salary-based expectations to quarterbacks over the past 12 months.
RB – DeMarco Murray
Murray (toe) has had a lingering injury, but he finished the week practicing fully and not on the injury report. He should get his usual workload this weekend.
While he faces a tough Packers run defense that is allowing a league-low 3.3 yards per rush, a closer look at the Packers defense shows that they’ve been vulnerable to outside runs:
Per sharpfootballstats.com, the Packers have been incredibly stout in the middle of their defense but have had some trouble slowing down outside runs. Luckily for Murray, this is exactly where he has excelled all season:
Murray hasn’t been bad when running in any direction this season, but he’s regularly gashed defenses that have allowed him to get outside. He’s priced at $7,400 on FD with a 99 percent Bargain Rating and has a +5.99 Projected Plus/Minus – the fourth-highest mark among all running backs.
RB – Derrick Henry and Antonio Andrews
Henry (calf) suffered an injury last week, but he practiced fully on Friday and is expected to play this week. If Henry is unable to play, Andrews would serve as Murray’s backup. Andrews has averaged just 3.7 yards per carry during his three-year career. Neither are recommended fantasy options this week, as Murray is expected to dominate the running back touches.
WR – Tajae Sharpe
Sharpe’s eight targets last week were the most he had received in a game since Week 1. He converted his four receptions into 58 yards. It’s an improvement over recent weeks, but Sharpe is still yet to score a touchdown this season and has been targeted less than five times in three of his past five games. He’s minimum-priced on DK with a +2.12 Plus/Minus and is expected to see a lot of LaDarius Gunter, PFF’s 60th-highest graded cornerback this season.
WR – Rishard Matthews
Matthews received a season-high 10 targets last week and responded with 63 yards and two touchdowns. He’s now scored five touchdowns in his last five games and has regularly exceeded his salary-based expectations:
As our Trends tool shows, Matthews has posted a +7.83 Plus/Minus with 100 percent Consistency and has averaged 15 DK points over the past five weeks. His salary has risen $800 over the past four weeks to $4,200 on DK, but he still carries a strong +3.47 Projected Plus/Minus. The Titans’ passing offense is far too volatile to play Matthews in cash, but he’s earned GPP consideration, as he’s averaging 2.19 fantasy points per target – the sixth-highest mark among all wide receivers through nine weeks.
WR – Kendall Wright
The Titans seem to be set on not utilizing Wright more in the offense. It’s confusing, as he’s regularly balled out when given a featured role over the past three seasons:
Wright has averaged a 5.78-76.67-0.78 line in his nine games with eight-plus receptions over the past three seasons. He put up an 8-133-1 line in his only game with eight-plus targets this season and hasn’t been targeted more than five times in any other game. This inconsistency, combined with his $1,100 price increase on DK, makes Wright a risky play this week even in a good matchup against Packers slot cornerback Micah Hyde, PFF’s 64th-best cover corner this season.
TE – Delanie Walker
Walker has gone about his business as usual this season. Through nine weeks, his average of 13.13 DK points per game ranks seventh among all tight ends. While every wide receiver in the offense faces uncertainty surrounding their targets, Walker is locked in as Mariota’s No. 1 receiver. He’s been targeted on 15.6 percent of his snaps this season – the sixth-highest mark in the league, per playerprofiler.com. Walker is priced at $6,200 on FD with an 85 percent Bargain Rating, although he has a tough matchup against a Packers defense that is the sixth-best in the league in DVOA versus tight ends.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
