The Week 10 NFL Dashboard
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Brown at Ravens
The Browns travel to Baltimore for a divisional matchup as 10-point road dogs. The Ravens are coming off an impressive defensive home performance against their Week 9 divisional opponent, the Steelers. Vegas currently projects a total of 45.5, giving the Ravens a very high implied total of 27.75 and the Browns a measly team total of 17.75.
Cleveland Browns
Writer: John Proctor
QB – Cody Kessler
Kessler looks to be Hue Jackson’s preferred quarterback and continues to get a trial run during this lost season. Kessler has played well above expectations this season but continues to struggle to post big fantasy numbers. He has a decent 96.1 Passer Rating but has thrown for multiple touchdowns only once this season.
However, this matchup is optimal for the passing game. The Ravens are far and away the top rushing defense according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA (Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average). This has resulted in Baltimore giving up 85 percent of their fantasy production through the air and only 15 percent on the ground. This would make Kessler an interesting low-owned GPP play perhaps in the smaller slates, but he is not a recommended quarterback in larger slates. Kessler is a bottom-five rated quarterback in Adam Levitan’s DraftKings and FanDuel Player Models.
RB – Isaiah Crowell
Crowell continues to struggle and now has five straight games under 75 rushing yards. The silver lining is that he remains the goal-line back and has seen 10 targets over his past three games. That being said, he draws a brutal matchup against DVOA’s top-ranked rushing defense. The Ravens have allowed the second-fewest rushing yards this season and the third-fewest yards per carry (3.4). Crowell has a 39 percent FanDuel Bargain Rating and only three Pro Trends. He is not a recommended play in this matchup.
RB – Duke Johnson Jr.
In a similar funnel matchup in Week 8, Duke saw eight targets, catching six of them for 87 yards. However, he managed only five targets against the Ravens in their Week 2 matchup. All of that being said, with the Ravens allowing 85 percent of their production through the air, Duke would be the preferred running back option on the Browns. However, neither is particularly interesting: Duke projects for a floor of only 8.1 DK points and boasts only four Pro Trends.
WR – Terrelle Pryor
Pryor continued to be the top wide receiver in Cleveland even in Corey Coleman’s return in terms of yardage. However, note that they received the same number of targets (seven). He is averaging nine targets per game over the last four and has three touchdowns in that span. This week, Pryor should mostly avoid CB Jimmy Smith, as he should run more than 50 percent of his routes on the opposite side of the field. However, due to the overall tough matchup, Pryor is in GPP-only territory this week.
WR – Corey Coleman
As expected, Coleman was a little rusty in his first week back from his injury, gathering only 41 receiving yards on three catches. He operated as the ‘second’ receiver behind Pryor but still drew the same number of targets, as noted above. Coleman has the tougher matchup on his side of the field, as he is expected to see more of Jimmy Smith, PFF’s 58th-ranked corner. Coleman has only two DraftKings Pro Trends and a mediocre +1.2 Projected Plus/Minus.
WR – Andrew Hawkins
With Coleman back in the lineup, Hawkins saw only four targets and played 66 percent of the snaps. That should be the expectation going forward, making Hawkins a very volatile play in any contest format.
TE – Gary Barnidge
With Kessler back under center, Barnidge saw only three targets in Week 9. He certainly has a better target projection with Josh McCown at quarterback, but it is noteworthy that this was his lowest target total while playing with Kessler this season. It is very possible that Coleman will become a major impediment to Barnidge’s target totals. He faces off against a Ravens defense that is DVOA’s top-ranked defense against tight ends. There are certainly safer TE options in Week 10.
Baltimore Ravens
Writer: John Proctor
QB – Joe Flacco
Flacco has been terrible this season: He is on pace to throw for a career-low 12 touchdowns and second-most interceptions at 14. While he is on pace for his highest career yardage total, he also has his second-worst career Adjusted Yards per Attempt mark. Flacco has scored more than 15 DraftKings points in only half of his games this season.
That said, he draws one of the best quarterback matchups of the season against the Browns. They are DVOA’s 32nd-ranked passing defense and are allowing the highest yards per attempt mark in the league. They have also allowed the second-most passing touchdowns this season and have only six interceptions. Flacco’s low 5.0-point projected FD floor makes him a risky cash-game play, but he certainly warrants GPP consideration given the matchup.
RB – Terrance West
West has a very nice matchup this week against a Browns run defense that has really struggled as of late. They rank 29th (per DVOA) and are allowing 4.6 yards per carry — the sixth-highest mark in the league. They have also allowed the second-most rushing touchdowns (12) on the year.
West looks to have a slight hold over his lead back role, as he handled 15 of the 25 running back carries in Week 9. He also played nine snaps more than Kenneth Dixon. Oddly, Kyle Juszczyk outsnapped them both and should continue to have a role. The Ravens are heavy home favorites tonight, and their defense should give West plenty of opportunities to put up fantasy points. He currently has a 16.5-point projected ceiling on FanDuel with six Pro Trends and a 97 percent Bargain Rating. He’s definitely in play for Thursday tournaments.
RB – Kenneth Dixon
Dixon has the opportunity to dethrone West this weekend, but he should still be expected to be playing second fiddle to start this game. He received the second-most carries and snaps in Week 9 and saw a major increase from the four snaps he played in Week 7. He could be given an opportunity to get volume should this game get out of hand. He has seven FanDuel Pro Trends and a 98 percent Bargain Rating.
WR – Steve Smith
Smith did not look like he missed a beat last week: He played on 58 of the Ravens’ 70 offensive snaps — 17 more than any other receiver. He also saw the most targets (seven) and caught a two-point conversion. He should spend the majority of his day in the slot and at the right wide receiver spot, which should allow him to avoid CB Joe Haden. Haden was able to help limit Dez Bryant to one catch on four targets in Week 9.
Per DVOA, the Browns rank 31st against opposing WR1s, allowing an average of eight catches for 81 yards. They have also been torched by slot receivers in recent weeks, allowing 8-133-1 to Kendall Wright and 4-93-1 to Quincy Enunwa. Smith is currently the highest-rated WR in the Levitan FD Player Model.
WR – Mike Wallace
Wallace projects to lose some of his target volume to Smith as the season goes on. More bad news: He should mostly line up in Haden’s coverage this weekend. Wallace is priced higher than Smith on both sites despite having a lower projected floor. That said, we have seen that Wallace needs only one target to make a big play. He is a volatile GPP option this week at $6,200 on DK and $6,900 on FD.
WR – Breshad Perriman
Perriman saw four targets in Week 9, which was 13.3 percent of Flacco’s attempts. That was in a game in which Wallace played on limited snaps (35) due to an illness. As long as Wallace and Smith are healthy, Perriman will be the third option at best.
TE – Dennis Pitta
Pitta continues to dominate the snaps in Baltimore but has not cleared 60 yards since his Week 2 explosion. With Smith back in the lineup, Pitta saw only three targets in Week 9. Now that Flacco has all of his options back at WR, Pitta is going to be a very volatile option going forward. That said, this matchup warrants strong GPP consideration, as the Browns have allowed TEs to score 1.9 FD fantasy points over salary-based expectations in the past year. He’s currently the second-highest rated TE in the FD Levitan Player Model.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
