The Week 10 NFL Dashboard
For the rest of our positional breakdowns and team previews, visit our NFL dashboard.
Bears at Buccaneers
The Buccaneers will host the Bears as a one-point favorite this Sunday afternoon. The Buccaneers are currently implied to score 23.5 points, while the Bears are currently implied to score 22.5 points. Let’s take a look at who will be taking the field.
Chicago Bears
Writer: Ian Hartitz
QB – Jay Cutler
Cutler has now started 18 games with John Fox as his head coach. He’s managed to surpass 300 passing yards three times and has thrown for more than two touchdowns once in those games. Overall, Cutler has struggled to get much of anything going over the past two seasons:
As our Trends tool shows, he’s posted a +0.86 Plus/Minus and has averaged 15.71 DraftKings points over the past two years – a mark that would barely push him past Blaine Gabbert as the 20th-highest scoring fantasy quarterback of 2016. One of his biggest issues has been his lack of fantasy-friendly pass attempts, as he ranks 34th among all quarterbacks in both average red-zone and deep-ball pass attempts per game this season, per playerprofiler.com. Cutler will look to get back on track against a Buccaneers defense that is allowing 8.3 yards per pass attempt this season – tied for the second-worst mark in the league. He’s priced at $5,300 on DK with an 83 percent Bargain Rating and has a +4.89 Projected Plus/Minus.
RB – Jordan Howard
ESPN’s Jeff Dickerson reported last week that Howard has a “stranglehold” on the Bears’ featured back role. After consecutive mediocre performances, his 202 total yards and a touchdown against the Vikings in Week 8 seem to have secured his starting job for the time being. The best reason to believe Howard will continue to hog the Bears’ running back touches has been his ability to pick up yards after contact. His average of 3.4 yards after contact is the fifth-best mark among all running backs this season, per PFF. He has a great matchup this week against a Buccaneers defense that has allowed a 48.85 percent rush success rate over the past 12 months – the third-worst mark in the league. Howard is priced at $6,900 on FanDuel with a 96 percent Bargain Rating and has a +2.45 Projected Plus/Minus.
RB – Jeremy Langford and Ka’Deem Carey
The Bears were expected to ride the hot hand among their three running backs against the Vikings, but Howard never gave Langford or Carey a chance to even attempt to get hot. Overall, the two backs combined for just three touches and aren’t expected to be featured in the offense behind Howard.
WR – Alshon Jeffery
Jeffery finally scored a touchdown during the Bears’ Week 8 win over the Vikings, but he’s still on pace to finish the season with an underwhelming 72-1,166-2 line. He’s actually averaging more yards per target than he did last season, but his days of receiving monstrous workloads on a weekly basis seem to be over. Last season, Jeffery was targeted on 19.2 percent of his snaps – the third-best mark among all wide receivers. This season, he’s been targeted on just 13.7 percent of his snaps — a mark that ranks outside of the top-50 among all wide receivers. Jeffery will look to turn things around this week against a Buccaneers defense that has allowed a 52.3 percent pass success rate over the past 12 months – the fifth-best mark in the league. He’s priced at $7,200 on FD with a 90 percent Bargain Rating and has a 17.2-point projected ceiling.
WR – Cameron Meredith
The days of Meredith receiving double-digit targets per game appear to be over. He’s been targeted a total of four times during his last two games and isn’t expected to see an uptick as long as Cutler remains under center. Brian Hoyer attempted 43-plus passes in three of his four complete starts this season; Cutler hasn’t attempted more than 37 passes since Week 9 of the 2015 season. Meredith is priced at $5,300 on FD with an 83 percent Bargain Rating and has zero to one percent FantasyLabs projected ownership.
WR – Eddie Royal and Josh Bellamy
Royal hasn’t played since Week 6 and Bellamy has surpassed 50 receiving yards once in 36 career games. Both are tough sells as fantasy plays this week due to the uncertainty surrounding their snaps.
Royal (toe) was limited in practice this week but is officially questionable for the game and tentatively expected to ‘play’ (cough).
TE – Zach Miller
Miller just keeps on keeping on. He’s been targeted five-plus times in six of his eight games this season, and his average of 6.8 targets per game ranks sixth among all tight ends. The stars are aligning for another solid performance from Miller, as he finds himself in a matchup that he has historically thrived in:
As our Trends tool shows, Miller has posted a +5.45 Plus/Minus with 58.3 percent Consistency and has averaged 10.93 DK points in his 12 games as a road underdog over the past two seasons. He’s priced at $5,400 on FD with an 81 percent Bargain Rating and has zero to one percent FantasyLabs projected ownership. Miller has a good matchup against a Buccaneers secondary that doesn’t have a safety graded higher than 50th by PFF this season.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Writer: Tyler Buecher
QB – Jameis Winston
Winston has been a full participant in practices this week and looks like the knee scare from last Thursday night was only minor in nature. Winston is in a great spot this week against a secondary that has given up some big games: Three quarterbacks have posted 23-plus DraftKings points against them this season. The Bears are giving up a +3.4 Plus/Minus to opposing quarterbacks — the third-highest mark on the slate. Winston enters this matchup red-hot, averaging over 21 DK points per game with nine total touchdowns in his last three games. He is an intriguing target in tournaments with FantasyLabs projected ownership of just two to four percent.
RB – Peyton Barber
In the weekly carousel of Tampa Bay running backs, Week 10 looks to have all signs pointing towards Barber getting the lead gig. Barber has been serviceable when his number has been called, rushing 27 times for 122 yards and a score this season. He faces an interesting matchup against the Bears defense, which has been a bottom-10 unit defending the run, per Football Outsiders’ DVOA (Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average). However, the Bears’ run defense has improved dramatically as of late, allowing just one “running back,” Ty Montgomery, to eclipse 10.5 points on FD on them (17.6) since Week 3. Barber should be in line for a respectable number of touches this week and could pay off his low $3,900 DK price tag. Unfortunately, we aren’t getting Barber at much of a discount on FD, where he’s experienced a +$1,200 Salary Change on the year.
RB – Doug Martin & Jacquizz Rodgers
Rodgers (foot) has been ruled out for the week.
Martin (hamstring) is officially questionable and is expected to be a game-time decision. If he is active, he could be a potential value play. Martin has a 98 percent Bargain Rating on FanDuel but would likely be a tournament-only option with the uncertainty of snaps and touches for Week 10.
WR – Mike Evans
Evans is good to go (concussion) for Week 10 and will be in line for what could be another monster performance against the Bears. Per our Matchups tool, Evans will likely run most of his routes against Tracy Porter, PFF’s 70th-ranked cornerback on the year. Evans has had double-digit targets in every game since Week 1, and he has high ratings in several of our Pro Player Models. Evans has a top-three projection (21.6), ceiling (28.8), and floor (14.4) among all WRs this week on DK. He’s an elite play yet again.
WR – Adam Humphries
Humphries had his highest amount of targets last week since Week 3. As a result, he received a bump in price from $3,100 to $3,700 this week. Humphries’ targets have been inconsistent, but he may see a plus matchup this week running out of the slot. Slot receivers have done quite well against the Bears so far this season, as injuries have recently forced Cre’von LeBlanc into a starting role. LeBlanc grades barely higher than Porter, ranking as PFF’s 63rd-ranked cornerback. Despite the good matchup, Humphries’ lack of consistency makes him an extremely risky play.
WR – Cecil Shorts
Shorts has seen eight targets combined in his last two games but has just one catch. He’s a GPP dart throw at best.
TE – Cameron Brate
Brate has scored double-digit DK fantasy points over the past two games, but he’s been very touchdown-dependent: He’s received 11 targets but has only 65 receiving yards in that time frame. However, he still has a low price tag on DK ($3,500), where he boasts a +3.6 Projected Plus/Minus and six Pro Trends. He’s worth some GPP exposure against this mediocre Chicago defense.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
