Tonight brings a nine-game main slate starting at 7:00pm ET. Let’s jump in.
Point Guard
Studs
Chris Paul has not yet hit double-digit assists in his four games this year, but he’s still managed to exceed value in all but one contest thanks to a well-rounded game. Just last outing against the Thunder, Paul scored only 15 points and had nine assists but ended with 54.25 DraftKings points thanks to 11 rebounds and six steals. Those numbers won’t be there every night, but it does show that CP3 has a very safe floor because of his involvement everywhere on the court. This is shown in our Player Models, as his 28.7-point projected floor on DK is the highest among all PGs, even though he’s cheaper than both Stephen Curry and Damian Lillard. He’s currently the fifth-highest rated player among all positions in the DK Phan Model and owns a slate-high 12 Pro Trends.
Kemba Walker probably barely fits in the stud range with prices of $7,500 DK and $7,800 FD but his matchup tonight warrants inclusion in this tier. He faces the Brooklyn Nets, who have played at a top-10 pace and allowed opponents to score 105.3 points per 100 possessions this season. Further, Kemba’s +6.92 DK Opponent Plus/Minus is the second-best mark in the slate among starters behind Derrick Rose‘s +7.56. Per our NBA Matchups tool, he’ll start against ‘starter’ Isaiah Whitehead, who was drafted late in the second round this past summer. In his short time, Whitehead has allowed PGs to score 6.9 DK points above salary-based expectations. Sean Kilpatrick will also get quite a bit of run opposite Kemba: In his two seasons, Kilpatrick has posted poor Defensive Ratings (DRtg) of 115 and 114.
Value
Tony Parker has already been ruled out versus the Jazz tonight, and in his first game out this season Patty Mills received the start and exceeded expectations on his $3,800 DK price tag by 11.6 points. He’s the same price tonight and is projected to play 27.8 minutes and use 20.92 percent of the Spurs’ possessions while on the floor. Per our NBA On/Off tool, last season Mills scored 22.7 DK points and exceeded expectations by an average of 6.8 points in the games he started sans Parker. Tonight’s matchup is tough — he’ll face a top-10 Utah defense and a defender in George Hill who has held PGs to a -1.4 DK Plus/Minus — but his low price tag is incredibly appealing nonetheless. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on both DK and FD (+7.05, +6.82).
Rostering Tim Frazier Wednesday was incredibly tilting, as he put up only 7.2 FD points in 14.7 minutes against the Grizzlies after going for 44.1 in 36.8 minutes against the Bucks. He’s obviously a volatile player but should bounce back in terms of minutes and usage rate tonight against the Suns: He’s projected for 30.8 minutes and a 19.83 usage rate. His volatility, while frustrating if you rostered him in cash games, has at least kept his salary down this year. He is still only $5,500 on FD, where he has a +5.19 Projected Plus/Minus and 99 percent Bargain Rating. He’s currently the highest-rated PG in the FD Phan Model.
Leverage Play
Stephen Curry has scored at least 35.25 DK points in all five of his games this year. And yet . . .
Such is the life of an expensive DFS point guard. Tonight he is $8,900 DK and $8,800 FD, which are some of the lowest prices we’ve ever seen for Steph in DFS. The Warriors are playing on a back-to-back tonight, but 1) it’s against the Lakers and 2) Steph played only 30.1 and 29.5 minutes over the past two games. Tonight he is projected for 34.2 minutes and a 28.85 usage rate. This game has easily the highest Vegas total of the night — the 229 mark is 16.5 points higher than the Suns-Pelicans’ 212.5 mark — and these two teams have played at a top-four pace this year. There’s obviously risk here, both in Curry’s recent play and the fact that the Warriors are 11-point favorites — but that’s pretty much priced into Steph’s salary and projected ownership — five to eight percent on FD.
Shooting Guard
Stud
DeMar DeRozan has been on quite the heater to start the year: He has exceeded-salary based expectations on DK by an average of 10.73 points through his first four games. His box score stats are even more impressive: He hasn’t been below 32 real points yet this year (he leads the league in scoring, of course). He’s currently averaging 36.3 points, 5.3 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 1.5 steals, and he’s shooting 55.4 percent from the field. Those are MVP-like numbers in this small sample. DeRozan has never been a super-efficient player, so these numbers will certainly regress, but there’s certainly merit to targeting a guy with a ton of confidence right now. Further, he’s relatively cheap — compared to high-priced studs at other positions, at least — at $8,000 DK and $8,500 FD. His 54-point projected FD ceiling is more than 10 points higher than that of any other SG in the slate.
Values
Value plays are pretty hard to come by at the SG spot, but Utah wing Rodney Hood currently leads all FD SGs with a +4.09 Projected Plus/Minus. He has hit value in each of his last two games and played 34.6 and 33.0 minutes. Tonight’s matchup is a tough one against the Spurs, but Hood just played them on Tuesday and scored 27.5 FD points in 33 minutes of action. Tonight he is projected for 32.5 minutes and a 22.74 usage rate. Per our NBA Matchups tool, he’ll start opposite Jonathan Simmons, who has allowed opponents to score 2.7 DK points above salary-based expectation in the past year. Hood is tied for the most Pro Trends on FD with 10 and is projected for nine to 12 percent ownership.
Leverage Plays
The top-two rated SGs in the FD Phan Model are Klay Thompson and Devin Booker, who have disappointed mostly this year but should regress back to their hot-shooting ways at some point. Both are relatively cheap at $5,900 and $5,600 and boast 93 and 90 percent Bargain Ratings. Booker has been dealing with a toe injury this year but played 38.5 minutes Wednesday against the Blazers, which is a good sign moving forward. Oddly enough, before Klay hit four 3-pointers last night against the Thunder, these two SGs — two of the best pure shooters in the league — had combined for 7-of-45 shooting from the 3-point line? Can you say “regression”? These guys are interesting leverage plays given their high upside and projected low ownership. Booker in particular is interesting, as he is projected for just five to eight percent ownership on FD and is an interesting leverage play off of Eric Bledsoe (who is currently the highest-rated player in the DK Phan Model, by the way) and red-hot TJ Warren.
Small Forward
Stud
Kevin Durant was certainly fired up last night facing his former team, scoring 48.9 FD points and 39 real points in only 31.1 minutes of action. He hit seven of his 11 3-pointers, including a ridiculous PU3IT. That last part has no fantasy relevance, but PU3ITs are one of the greatest things in basketball so here we are. Durant gets a cake matchup tonight facing a Lakers team that simultaneously ranks fourth in pace and bottom-five in defensive efficiency. The Warriors are implied for a slate-high 120 points and Durant is projected to play 33.8 minutes and use 29.37 percent of the possessions while on the floor. It’s understandable if you want to fade him in cash given the high 11-point spread, but his slate-high 59.3-point FD ceiling is hard to fade in tournaments.
Kawhi Leonard has now exceeded salary-based expectations in four of five games this year and hasn’t been below 33.3 FD points in any game. At just $8,300 DK, he is the highest-rated SF in the Phan Model despite having an awful -2.17 Opponent Plus/Minus mark facing the Jazz tonight. He has easily the highest Projected Plus/Minus mark there as well (+5.65) as a result of his price dipping: He was $9,000 two games ago and has scored 40-plus fantasy points in both games since then. He has been incredibly efficient, scoring 1.21 fantasy points per minute over the past year and has bumped his usage rate up to 31.9 percent with his new go-to role. Per our On/Off tool, Kawhi saw a +1.6 percentage point usage bump without Parker last season.
Value
Kawhi has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on both DK and FD, but right below him sits Miami sophomore wing Justise Winslow at +5.19 on FD. After using possessions at a ridiculously low 12.5 percent last season, Winslow has bumped up his usage rate to 22.0 percent in his four games to start this season. He’s also playing a heavy amount of minutes: He played 40.7 and 39.1 minutes in his last two games against the Kings and Spurs. He has taken at least 14 shots in all four games this year and has let it fly from behind the 3-point line as well — an encouraging sign moving forward, even if he’s not hitting many right now. He’ll face a Toronto team tonight that has been slightly worse on defense this year, ranking 12th overall through four games.
Leverage Play
Carmelo Anthony had the nuts matchup last game against the Houston Rockets and put up a stinker: 27.9 FD points in 31 minutes. He shot the ball fine, going 8-of-15 for 21 points, but he played a sloppy game and had five turnovers. That said, his FD price has now come down to $7,300 — a savings of $700 from his opening night salary and a far cry from the Melo we’ve seen in the past couple of years. We have him projected for his typical minutes (34.2) and usage rate (29.15), and he should be able to bounce back a bit against a Bulls team that ranks 12th on defense this year. The Knicks are implied for a low 101 points, but Melo is projected for a solid 48.3 FD ceiling and has much lower ownership (five to eight percent) than the other higher-priced SFs in the slate.
Power Forward
Studs
Anthony Davis is a top-three rated player at any position on both DK and FD in the Phan Model. His projected FD ceiling of 71.9 points is more than seven points higher than that of any other player. He is good. That said, he has missed value in two of his past three games against tough defenses in the Grizzlies and Spurs. Tonight should be a bit easier against a Suns team that sits 15th on defense and plays at the third-highest pace in the league. This game has the second-highest total in the slate (212.5) and the Pelicans have the fourth-highest implied total at 107.75 points. Brow is projected for 36.9 minutes and a slate-high 33.87 usage rate tonight. He boasts eight FD Pro Trends has a +6.17 Projected Plus/Minus despite his $11,200 salary.
The second-highest rated PF in the DK Phan Model is Blake Griffin, who faces the Memphis Grizzlies tonight. Griffin is the cheapest he’s been all year tonight at $8,200, which puts his implied salary total at 38.65 points — a number he’s easily exceeded or been near every game this season. He is projected for 33.4 minutes and a high 28.03 usage rate against a Memphis team that has averaged only 49.6 rebounds a game. Blake is pulling in rebounds at a 16.9 percent clip, which is easily the best mark of his career since his second year in the league when he played down low more often. He comes at only five to eight percent ownership on FD and could be a nice pivot down from Davis in tournaments.
Values
Again, Brow has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on FD despite the high price tag. The guys right below him are actually teammates: Marvin Williams (+4.07) and Frank Kaminsky (+3.98). Marvin has seen steady minutes this year — he’s projected for 30.2 tonight — and he’s been able to score fantasy points in a variety of ways: He’s averaging a block and steal per game and has brought down at least eight rebounds in three of his four games. At just $5,300 against a poor Brooklyn defense, he’s a fine play. Kaminsky has now played two games this season, scoring at least 19.3 FD points in 24 minutes in both. His $4,000 price tag puts his implied salary total at just 15.42 points, which again is something he’s easily hit this year. He comes off the bench but puts up solid usage (19.38) when he’s in the game and could be an interesting GPP punt play at projected five to eight percent FD ownership.
Leverage Play
Kristaps Porzingis, like his teammate Melo, put up a stinker against Houston last time out, scoring only 19.6 FD points in 27.9 minutes of action. At his $6,800 salary, he missed expectations by a whopping 8.11 points. However, that might be an outlier game, as he hasn’t been below 28 FD points or played fewer than 29 minutes in any of his other three contests. Tonight he’s projected for 31.4 minutes and a 21.78 usage rate against Taj Gibson, who is at least six inches shorter than Porzingis and doesn’t defend on the perimeter very often. Porzingis certainly brings risk, but he has nine FD Pro Trends and is the fourth-highest rated PF in the Phan Model at five to eight percent projected ownership.
Center
Stud
After destroying the tough Spurs defense earlier this week, putting up 55.5 FD points in 34.9 minutes of action, Hassan Whiteside struggled against DeMarcus Cousins on Tuesday, racking up only 28.2 FD points in 27.8 minutes. Tonight he’ll face Jonas Valanciunas, who per our Matchups page has allowed opponents to score 1.1 fantasy points per minute over the past year. Whiteside has a poor -3.68 FD Opponent Plus/Minus, but that number has a lot to do with Bismack Biyombo, who now is with the Orlando Magic. JV isn’t awful on defense, but he’s not Biyombo, and as a result the Raptors have allowed centers this year to score +0.9 points over salary-based expectations — a much better number than Whiteside’s Opp Plus/Minus. Whiteside has a projected ceiling of 69.4 points on DK, which is the second-highest mark of any player other than Davis.
Value
Marcin Gortat has played heavy minutes for the Wizards this season, with totals of 43.0, 37.8, and 32.3 in his first three games. Last game against the Raptors, he double-doubled — his second straight — and put up 35 FD points on only 10 shots. His salary hasn’t budged — he’s $6,000 FD — and as a result he boasts a position-high Projected Plus/Minus of +5.40. He faces a really tough Atlanta team that ranks second overall on defense so far this year and is tied for fourth with 53.3 rebounds per game. Gortat will certainly have to play well to hit value, but his $6,000 price tag is just too low for a guy playing so many minutes.
Leverage Play
The highest-rated center in the FD Phan Model is the guy starting opposite Whiteside: Jonas Valanciunas. He’s come back to earth after putting up a 45.7-point game in Game 1 against the Pistons in 35.2 minutes. However, he’s only $6,200 FD and is projected for 31.2 minutes and a 21.46 usage rate. This is a tough matchup against Whiteside, but that’s exactly why he’s an interesting leverage play for tournaments. He dominated Andre Drummond in that first game and Whiteside showed just last game that he’s at least somewhat vulnerable to big-bodied post players. JV comes with five to eight percent FantasyLabs projected ownership and could be a profitable contrarian pivot if people elect to go with Whiteside.
Good luck!
News Updates
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