The Week 9 NFL Dashboard
For the rest of our positional breakdowns and team previews, visit our NFL dashboard.
Week 9 Tight Ends
Let’s start the way we always do . . .
To Gronk or Not to Gronk?
This week Rob Gronkowski is the cheapest that he’s been in months. Still, he might not fit in your lineup. If that’s the case, at least you can pivot to Jordan Reed or Tyler Eifert. Maybe Zach Miller. Or maybe even C.J. Fiedorowicz if you really want to go cheap.
Congratulations, NFL. You finally made me give a f*ck about TEs.
The Dumpoff Pass
Turn around, I’m throwing the ball.
Greg Olsen ($6,200 DK, $7,500 FD): Olsen easily leads the Panthers in targets, receptions, and yards (63-40-621). Per Bryan Mears’ Market Share Report, he’s dominated the Panthers over the last month with 24.16 percent of the targets . . .
. . . and 30.17 percent of the Air Yards.
He’s easily the slate’s TE1 with 17.44 DK and 13.73 FD points per game (PPG) on the season. (Naturally, Reed, Gronk, and Eifert are TEs 2-4 in PPG for the season.)
There’s really nothing special about Olsen’s matchup with the Rams — and that’s reflected in his low FantasyLabs ownership projections (available within our Player Models) — but if you like the comfort of rostering the most productive TE in a slate then Olsen’s the guy.
Jimmy Graham ($5,700 DK, $6,700 FD): He still leads the Seahawks with 23.70 percent of the targets and 28.63 percent of the Air Yards, but over the last six games he has just one TD. What’s more problematic is that he has just one target inside the 10-yard line over the last four games. He hasn’t done poorly since his Week 1 warm-up . . .
. . . but his Plus/Minus values have declined in the last two weeks, and they will likely continue to decline if he doesn’t start to get some red-zone targets.
The Bills are 22nd in Football Outsiders’ pass Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) against TEs, so Graham has a decent matchup, but he also carries a lot of risk. Plus he’s playing on Monday.
Travis Kelce ($5,300 DK, 6,600 FD): The Chiefs are 7.5-point home favorites over the Jaguars with an implied Vegas total of 25.75 points. This might seem like a decent spot for Kelce, who’s first on the Chiefs with 34 receptions and 377 yards and second with 45 targets and three TDs, but the Jags are allowing only 8.4 DK and 6.5 FD PPG to TEs and are 12th in pass DVOA against TEs.
Kelce has the position’s second-highest ownership projections at 13-16 percent. Those figures aren’t exorbitant, especially in a slate missing many high-end options, but I’d rather pivot away from elevated ownership when there’s nothing notable about a matchup.
Of course, it’s not easy finding TEs who lead their teams with four targets inside the 10-yard line over the last four weeks.
Delanie Walker ($4,600 DK, $6,400 FD): He leads the Titans with his 28-405-3 stat line as well as his 20.91 percent share of targets and 24.12 percent share of Air Yards. The Titans are 4.5-point road underdogs implied to score 21.25 points against a Chargers team that is 21st in pass DVOA against TEs.
He has FantasyLabs ownership projections of nine to 12 percent.
Kyle Rudolph ($4,000 DK, 5,000 FD): As we mentioned on this week’s NFL Daily Fantasy Flex pod, this is the chalk. Rudy has slate-high ownership projections of 21-25 and 26-30 percent on DK and FD. He’s facing a Lions defense that has allowed literally 20 TDs to TEs over the last 24 games.
If you don’t mind the taste of chalk, chew away. I’m not even joking when I say this: He’s easily the highest-rated FD TE in all four Pro Models: Bales, CSURAM88, Levitan, and Sports Geek.
Jason Witten ($3,700 DK, 5,200 FD): The original Dad Runner is facing a Browns defense that allows slate-high marks of 19.7 DK and 15.6 FD PPG to TEs.
He has FantasyLabs ownership projections of zero to one percent.
Lance Kendricks ($2,900 DK, $4,500 FD): Over the last four weeks, Kendricks is actually second on the Rams with an 18.75 percent share of the targets, and now he’s facing a Panthers unit allowing 0.86 TDs per game to TEs as well as 16.9 DK and 14.6 FD PPG. His projected ownership is zero to one percent.
Richard Rodgers ($2,700 DK, $4,700 FD): He’s playing against the Colts, who are 32nd in pass DVOA against TEs and are allowing 17.1 DK and 13.5 FD PPG to TEs. Like Kendricks, he also has nonexistent ownership.
Gary Barnidge ($3,900 DK, $5,200 FD): Barnidge has at least five targets in every game but one this season, and this week he’s facing a Cowboys defense that is 31st in pass DVOA against TEs. He has FantasyLabs ownership projections of nine to 12 percent.
The Coda
Once again, Antonio Gates ($3,000 DK, $5,500 FD) is the highest-rated DK TE in all four Pro Models. I don’t know whether to be amused or disgusted.
Positional Breakdowns & Tools
Be sure to read the other Week 9 positional breakdowns:
• Quarterbacks
• Running Backs
• Wide Receivers
Also, visit our suite of Tools to research all of the slate’s TEs for yourself, and peruse all of the slate’s tournaments in our Contest Guide.
Good luck this week!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
