The Week 9 NFL Dashboard
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Bills at Seahawks
This game currently has a 44-point implied Vegas total. The Seahawks are currently seven-point home favorites implied to score 25.5 points. The Bills are implied to score just 18.5 points.
Buffalo Bills
Writer: Joe Holka
QB – Tyrod Taylor
Taylor’s elite rushing ability is somehow keeping his value afloat even with the lack of weapons he has at his disposal. TyGod is first in rush yards (319), third in rush yards per game (40), fourth in carries per game (5.8), and third in red-zone carries (six) among QBs. His rushing ability raises his floor, but he has limited appeal in guaranteed prize pools and cash games due to the lack of difference makers in this offense. This week he faces a Seahawks defense that allows the slate’s second-lowest Opponent Plus/Minus (-2.5) to QBs and is fifth in Football Outsiders’ pass Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Per our Trends Tool, TyGod has been lights out over his career in tough matchups . . .
. . . but it’s probably not a sound move to roster Taylor when he’s playing an elite defense on the road and is without his top receiver and maybe even running back.
#HotTaek
RB – LeSean McCoy
Shady (hamstring) practiced Friday and Saturday after missing last week’s game. It looks like he’s going to play on Monday night.
He attempted to play during the Bills’ Week 7 loss to the Dolphins but was held to just 11 yards on eight carries before he re-aggravated his hamstring and exited the game.
McCoy’s been one of the tougher backs to tackle in the league this season, ranking seventh among RBs with 5.3 evaded tackles per game (per Player Profiler). Shady is priced at $7400 FD with six Pro Trends, although he has a tough matchup against a Seahawks defense that has held RBs to 0.6 points below salary-based expectations over the past 12 months.
RB – Mike Gillislee
Gillislee had an impressive 7.08 yards per attempt last week against the Patriots and will serve as the lead back once again this week if McCoy is unable to play. He would normally represent huge value, but he draws a Seahawks defense that ranks second in rush DVOA. It helps Gillislee’s cause that the Bills have a very run-heavy offense, but it’s hard to roster Gilly against a defense that limits opposing RBs to just 106.57 total yards per game, third-fewest in the league.
RB – Reggie Bush
Even if Seattle is able to jump out to an early lead, Bush is still a far-fetched GPP play. Seattle is allowing a low 4.29 receptions per game to RBs, as their linebackers have excelled in pass coverage.
WR – Robert Woods
Woods should continue to work as the team’s featured wide receiver. He’s battled a foot injury over the past few weeks and even missed the Bills’ Week 7 loss to the Dolphins. Still, Woods has performed well over his career with a featured role in the offense, as he’s averaged a 5.27/56.8/0.33 line over his 15 games with eight-plus targets. Per our Matchups Page, Woods will see a lot of slot cornerback Jeremy Lane, who presents Woods with Pro Football Focus’ 18th-most disadvantageous matchup of the week. As a result, Woods has a low +1.6 Projected Plus/Minus on FD.
WR – Marquise Goodwin
Goodwin is still in the concussion protocol and did not play in Week 8 game against the Patriots. He practiced on Friday, but his status is still uncertain. After seeing no targets in Week 1, Goodwin averaged 5.3 targets per game in Weeks 2-7.
WR – Walt Powell/Justin Hunter
Powell has served as the team’s third receiver in a few games this season and saw more than five targets for the first time this season in Week 8 with Goodwin out. Hunter has two touchdowns on just five receptions.
TE – Charles Clay
Per Bryan Mears’ Market Share Report, Clay is leading the Bills in target market share (20.72 percent) and target share of Air Yards (20.39 percent) over the past four games. He could be the best bet to hit cash value on this team in Week 9, as the Seahawks are 26th in pass DVOA against TEs. Tyrod has to throw to someone, and Clay has been a viable punt play lately. He’s the seventh-highest rated DK TE in the CSURAM88 Model.
Seattle Seahawks
Writer: Bryan Mears
QB – Russell Wilson
Well, maybe because of the injury issues and the poor offensive line play, it just might not happen for Wilson this season.
He has now met salary-based expectations in exactly one game this season: A Week 4 matchup against the 31st-ranked Jets pass defense (per DVOA). Even in the Coors Field of daily fantasy football last week, Wilson was able to muster only 253 passing yards, zero touchdowns, and one interception. The running hasn’t been there, either: He’s recorded four combined rushes in the last two weeks for nine yards. This week’s matchup is pretty average, as he’ll face a Bills team that ranks 18th against the pass and 15th against the run. Still, it’s hard to get excited about this Recovery Watered-down version of Wilson.
RB – Christine Michael
If you miss value at the Superdome in New Orleans, it’s impressively bad. And that’s exactly what happened with Michael last week, when he rushed for 40 yards and a touchdown on 10 attempts. Michael still owns this backfield — per the Week 9 Market Share Report, he’s seen 69.7 percent of the rushes over the past four weeks, and he got 58.8 percent last week — but with an injured/bad Wilson it’s likely that this offense’s (and thus Michael’s) ceiling is capped. If you’re going to take the chance on Michael, do it on FD, where he is $7,500 and owns a 97 percent Bargain Rating. He’s currently the sixth-highest rated FD RB in the Bales Model and is a fine GPP play given his team rush share.
RB – C.J. Prosise
Prosise isn’t particularly interesting in terms of running the ball — he recorded a career-high 23 yards on four carries last week — but he did show flashes in the pass game, catching all four of his targets for 80 yards. He’s much too risky to roster, but his involvement in the passing game is something to monitor.
WR – Doug Baldwin
Despite missing value last week for the fourth straight week — against the Saints, no less — Baldwin is actually the seventh-highest rated FD receiver in the Bales Model. Most of that is due to salary: His $7,000 FD price tag is the cheapest he’s been since the beginning of the season. (He owns an 86 percent Bargain Rating.) However, Baldwin hasn’t been the same with a mediocre Wilson as his QB, and he gets a tough matchup against slot corner Nickell Robey-Coleman, who is PFF’s 31st-ranked CB on the season and has a coverage grade of 78.8. Compare that to last week — again, in freaking New Orleans — when he had a matchup against DeVante Harris, who has a PFF coverage grade of 48.6 and can’t even get a ranking because that number is so bad. Baldwin is a risky GPP option.
WR – Jermaine Kearse
Kearse has hit salary-based expectations in three straight games, but unfortunately barely meeting expectation as a minimum-priced receiver doesn’t do a whole lot for lineups. He hasn’t exceeded 8.2 FD points in any game this year. It is a bit interesting that he saw seven targets last week and is now second on the team in market share of Air Yards (MS Air) over the last four games with 23.86 percent. Still, there are better options out there unless you’re a very contrarian GPP player.
WR – Tyler Lockett
Lockett continues to disappoint in his sophomore campaign: After an eight-target Week 1, he has not exceeded five targets or four catches in a single game. He had 99 yards against the Rams in Week 2 but hasn’t been above 32 yards in a single game other than that. In the past four weeks, he owns 10.37 percent of the team’s targets and only 6.54 percent of the Air Yards. He has theoretical upside, but that’s about as far as it goes right now.
TE – Jimmy Graham
And we finally get to the WR1 of this offense. Over the last month, Jimmy has owned 23.70 percent of the team’s targets and a whopping 28.63 percent of the Air Yards. He had a disappointing return to the Superdome in Week 8, but that was the first time he had seen fewer than eight targets since Week 2. Even though he has only one TD in his last 10 games, he’s seeing a ton of volume. This week, he’ll face a Buffalo defense that, per DVOA, ranks 18th in pass defense and 22nd against TEs. He’s currently tied with Dennis Pitta for the most Pro Trends (nine) on DK, where he has a 93 percent Bargain Rating.
News Updates
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