The Week 9 NFL Dashboard
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Colts at Packers
The Packers are currently 7.5-point favorites for their Week 9 matchup against the Colts. There could be a shootout at Lambeau Field Sunday afternoon, as the current Vegas total of 54 points is by far the highest of Week 9. The Colts are implied to score 23.25 points, while the Packers are implied to score a slate-high 30.75 points. Let’s take a look at who will be taking the field this Sunday.
Indianapolis Colts
Writer: Ian Hartitz
QB – Andrew Luck
Luck has historically not been himself when playing on the road. He’s not terrible away from Lucas Oil Stadium, but he has a lower Plus/Minus and averages fewer fantasy points. With that said, Luck has put those issues to rest when Donte Moncrief has been able to play on the road:
As the RotoViz Game Splits App shows, Luck has actually been slightly better when he’s been on the road with Moncrief in the lineup compared to the rest of his games. Luck is priced at $6,700 on DraftKings with seven Pro Trends and has a position-high +6.12 Projected Plus/Minus. He’ll face a Packers defense that has allowed an average of 7.9 yards per pass this season.
RB – Frank Gore
Gore has shown that he is far from washed up during an excellent first half of the season. Through eight weeks, he’s on pace to score double-digit touchdowns and surpass 1,300 total yards. Gore could take another big step toward those thresholds this Sunday, as he’s historically thrived on the road:
As our Trends tool shows, Gore is averaging a +5.4 Plus/Minus with 15.06 DK points on the road, compared to a +0.6 Plus/Minus with 10.55 DK points at home. This week he’s priced at $4,500 on DK with five Pro Trends but faces a Packers defense that has allowed a league-low 0.7 points below salary-based expectations to running backs over the past 12 months.
RB – Robert Turbin
Turbin received a season-high five touches during the Colts’ Week 8 loss to the Chiefs. While he’s surpassed Josh Ferguson as Gore’s clear backup, Turbin shouldn’t be considered a fantasy option unless Gore is forced to miss some time.
WR – T.Y. Hilton
Hilton briefly exited the game last week with a hamstring injury and missed some practice this week but now is no longer on the injury report. He participated fully in Friday’s practice and is expected to play.
He wasn’t himself for much of the game last week, catching just one of his six targets for 20 yards. Hilton continued his troubling trend of down performances when Moncrief is able to play:
Hilton balls out without Moncrief but has averaged a 4.5-71.75-0.34 line when Moncrief has been in the lineup over the past three seasons. The biggest issue has been his lack of touchdowns, as Luck has continuously targeted Moncrief more than Hilton in the red zone. Hilton is priced at $7,600 on FanDuel with a 97 percent Bargain Rating and could see a lot of LaDarius Gunter – PFF’s 45th-highest graded cornerback who is fresh off of holding (a limited) Julio Jones to a 3-29-0 line in Week 8.
WR – Donte Moncrief
Moncrief’s much anticipated return resulted in a 4-41-1 line that could have been even bigger if a 40-yard touchdown catch wasn’t called back on a holding penalty. He’s shown great chemistry with Luck over the past year and a half, scoring seven touchdowns in their last 10 games together. Part of the reason Moncrief has been such a touchdown machine has been Luck’s insistence on targeting his tallest receiver close to the goal line. Despite playing in five fewer games, Moncrief has as many targets as Hilton inside the 10-yard line this season – and more touchdowns. He’s priced at $6,100 on FD with a 95 percent Bargain Rating and has a +4.45 Projected Plus/Minus.
WR – Phillip Dorsett
Dorsett could be a GPP option this week if Hilton ends up not playing, but even that might be a reach. He’s surpassed 50 receiving yards just twice in his 18 career games. Additionally, Dorsett has been targeted on just 8.3 percent of his snaps this season — the 86th-highest rate among all wide receivers. He’s priced at $3,700 on DK and has a 3.9-point projected floor.
TE – Jack Doyle
Doyle couldn’t get much going last week against Eric Berry and company, but he’s still worthy of fantasy consideration. Doyle leads the Colts in red-zone targets and targets inside the 10-yard line. He’s priced at $5,300 on FD with an 83 percent Bargain Rating and has a +3.55 Projected Plus/Minus. Doyle will face a Packers secondary that doesn’t have a safety graded higher than 50th in coverage this season by PFF.
TE – Dwayne Allen
Allen (ankle) practiced on Friday and is expected to be active for Week 9, although he’s likely to be limited.
Green Bay Packers
Writer: Ian Hartitz
QB – Aaron Rodgers
Rodgers has thrown the ball 38-plus times over the past four weeks after not reaching this threshold once before the Packers’ bye week. Part of the difference has been the Packers’ acceptance that they aren’t a great downfield passing team at the moment. Rodgers’ aDOT during the first three weeks of the season was at 9.3 yards, but it’s sunk to just 7.4 yards over the past four weeks. The result has been a more accurate and more productive Rodgers. This week he finds himself in a matchup that he’s historically thrived in:
As our Trends tool shows, Rodgers has posted a +7.09 Plus/Minus with 71.4 percent Consistency and has averaged 27.55 DK points in his seven games at home with an implied team total of 28-plus points. He’s priced at $9,100 on FD with a +2.88 Projected Plus/Minus for his matchup against a Colts defense that is allowing the second-most passing yards per game this season.
RB – Don Jackson and Aaron Ripkowski
James Starks (knee) has been ruled out for Week 9. In his place at RB will be some combination of WR/RB Ty Montgomery, Jackson, and Ripkowski.
Ripkowski actually out-touched Jackson last week, although neither back had more than six carries and it was actually Rodgers who led the team in rushing. Both backs are tough sells as fantasy options this week due to the uncertainty surrounding their touches. With that said, both Jackson and Ripkowski are interesting GPP punt plays due to their sub-$3,500 salaries on DK and their matchup against a Colts defense that has been ripped apart by running backs of all shapes and sizes this season:
RB/WR – Ty Montgomery
Montgomery (illness) was a surprise inactive last week, as it was revealed that he has a sickle cell issue he is working through, but he’s no longer on the team’s injury report and is fully expected to play and serve as the team’s lead ‘runner.’
We should expect another big workload for the Packers’ walking-talking-flex position. Montgomery is averaging 16 touches per game over the past two weeks and will likely be the only active running back on the roster who has been given a carry inside the five-yard line this season, per PFR. He’s priced at $5,800 on DK and has a 22.6-point projected ceiling.
WR – Jordy Nelson
Nelson finally got loose for some big plays last week, as he posted a 4-94-1 line against Desmond Trufant and the Falcons secondary. It was good to see he still has the ability to take the top off of a defense, but where he has thrived all season has been the red zone. Nelson is tied for first among all receivers in red-zone targets and leads all receivers in red-zone receptions and touchdowns. He’s priced at $8,200 on FD with a 94 percent Bargain Rating, although his 13-16 percent FantasyLabs projected ownership is higher than similarly-projected receivers Amari Cooper and Brandin Cooks. Nelson could also avoid being shadowed by Vontae Davis, as the Colts’ No. 1 cornerback suffered a concussion last week and is currently in the concussion protocol.
WR – Randall Cobb
Cobb’s hamstring injury resulted in him missing his first game since 2013. Cobb was limited in practice this week and is officially questionable for Week 9. His situation should be monitored, as it’s very possible that he will miss his second week in a row.
The injury comes at a bad time for Cobb, as he has been scorching defenses since the Packers’ Week 4 bye:
As our Trends tool shows, Cobb has posted a +10.37 Plus/Minus with 100 percent Consistency and has averaged 23.23 DK points in his last three games. The biggest reason for the change has simply been his involvement in the offense, as he’s averaging 12.33 targets over his past three weeks compared to just six targets per game during the first three games of the season. Cobb is priced at $6,900 on FD with a 95 percent Bargain Rating and will likely see a lot of slot cornerback Darius Butler – PFF’s 41st-highest graded CB this season.
WR – Davante Adams
Adams has been targeted an average of 15 times over the past two weeks and was able to rack up 12 receptions for 74 yards last week. The Packers utilized him out of the backfield with both Montgomery and Cobb out of the lineup and this resulted in a great PPR performance. Despite his increased number of targets, Adams has maintained his efficiency thanks to his five touchdowns, as he’s currently averaging 1.95 fantasy points per target – a mark that ranks among the top-20 wide receivers this season. He’s priced at $5,900 on DK with an 8.5-point floor, although his 17-20 percent FantasyLabs projected ownership is tied for the fourth-highest mark among all wide receivers this week.
TE – Richard Rodgers
Rodgers wasn’t targeted last week in a dream spot with both Cobb and Montgomery out of the lineup. He shouldn’t be considered a fantasy option this week as satisfying as a Rodgers-to-Rodgers score alert on your phone may look.
Jared Cook (ankle) is out for Week 9, as he’s been for the last four weeks. Not that it matters.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
