The Week 9 NFL Dashboard
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Steelers at Ravens
The Steelers travel to Baltimore for their first divisional matchup with the Ravens. The Ravens are currently one-point home favorites in a game that is projected for a low 43-point total. The Steelers are implied for 21 points; the Ravens are implied for 22 points.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Writer: John Proctor
QB – Ben Roethlisberger
Roethlisberger (knee) has practiced this week (albeit on a limited basis) and is expected to play this weekend. He’s officially questionable. Big Ben has been up and down this season: He has two games with one touchdown or less and four games with three or more touchdowns. His two worst games have come on the road, which is in line with his home/road splits over the last three seasons.
On a positive note, he is facing off against a Ravens defense this week that has been dominant against the run, ranking first in DVOA. Therefore, they are funneling production toward the pass, where they have been weaker this season. Unfortunately for Ben, they haven’t been that weak: The Ravens are allowing the fifth-fewest passing yards this season and have allowed a -2.7 Plus/Minus to QBs on DraftKings over their last 16 games. Big Ben is currently the lowest-rated quarterback in CSURAM88’s DK Player Model.
RB – Le’Veon Bell
Le’Veon has now seen 18-plus carries in three of four games this season and is averaging nine targets per game. Bell is running the most routes of any running back in the NFL, making him completely game-flow independent. Bell’s usage is safe no matter which quarterback is in the game, and he should continue to see 15 to 20 carries and six to 12 targets per week. That said, Ben being expected to play is a major boost.
If it weren’t for Bell’s usage as a pass-catcher, this would be considered a terrible matchup. The Ravens rank first in DVOA (Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average) against the run and are allowing 43.7 percent less production than league average. However, Bell continues to see over 90 percent of the snaps and huge weekly workloads. In a similar matchup against the Jets in Week 5, Bell received 11 targets. With one of the highest weekly ceilings, Bell is always in consideration no matter the matchup. He has nine FanDuel Pro Trends and a 95 percent Bargain Rating.
RB – DeAngelo Williams
Williams (knee) is likely to return to action this weekend, but he’s basically a nonentity when Le’Veon Bell is healthy.
WR – Antonio Brown
Brown has been a much different wide receiver without Big Ben over his career, but he managed to clear 100 yards in Week 7 with Landry Jones playing QB. Plus, it looks like Ben will be back this week. He has never caught a touchdown from a quarterback other than Ben.
AB is an elite option, but against the Ravens, expectations should be tempered. Jimmy Smith and the Ravens have held their own against opposing WR1s: Odell Beckham was just limited to 11 yards on two catches against Smith. After Smith left, Beckham caught six passes for 211 yards. Brandon Marshall was also limited to three catches for 39 yards in Week 7. That being said, Brown has an elite ceiling with Ben playing. He is averaging 10.5 targets per week and has actually had two of his 100-yard games on the road this season.
Brown projects for a ceiling of 21.6 FD points and is the fourth-highest rated wide receiver in CSURAM88’s FD Player Model.
WR – Sammie Coates
Coates had an opportunity to get healthy over the bye and should step back into the WR2 role behind Brown. In his last two healthy games with Roethlisberger at quarterback, Coates saw 19 targets, catching 12 for 218 yards. However, he has only two games with more than five targets this season and should be considered for only tournaments. Coates projects for a floor of only 4.9 DraftKings points and has a 27 percent Bargain Rating there.
WR – Markus Wheaton
Wheaton (shoulder) is finally healthy and ready to play . . . but he’s reportedly now behind Darrius Heyward-Bey on the depth chart.
WR – Eli Rogers
For some type of disciplinary reason, Rogers was inactive in Week 7 against the Patriots. It has also become very clear that Bell is not only the RB1 on this team, he is also the second receiving option behind Brown. We should expect Rogers to be back this week and to assume his slot WR role. However, as long as he is in the dog house and Coates is healthy and back to his role as the WR2, Rogers will hold little value.
TE – Jesse James
James saw only two targets in Week 7, catching both for 18 yards. He continues to be an option that is heavily touchdown-dependent, scoring less than nine PPR fantasy points in every game that he did not score a touchdown. He’s a GPP dart at best.
Baltimore Ravens
Writer: John Proctor
QB – Joe Flacco
Flacco currently grades as Pro Football Focus’ 23rd-best quarterback on the season. He is completing only 61 percent of his passes and has thrown for more interceptions than touchdowns. He averages less than one touchdown per game this season and is throwing TDs on a career-low 1.6 percent of his passes. As pointed out by Rich Hribar of Rotoworld, Flacco has very similar statistics to Brock Osweiler this season.
The Week 9 matchup for Flacco is excellent, but it will be difficult to trust him if Steve Smith is not back in the lineup. If Smith is back, Flacco is in a dream spot: The Steelers are DVOA’s 21st-ranked passing defense and have allowed 283 passing yards per game this season. Further, they are DVOA’s 32nd-ranked defensive line in adjusted sack rate. Assuming Smith is back, Flacco rates as the top quarterback in Adam Levitan’s DraftKings Player Model. However, it is important to note that the FantasyLabs DK projections show a floor of only 6.8 points.
RB – Terrance West
After blowing up in Week 6, West had a down game against DVOA’s third-ranked rushing defense in Week 7. This was mostly expected, as West has little involvement in the Ravens’ passing game. He also left early with an injury and his status for Week 9 is uncertain. He should be the starter if he is active, but the leash will be much shorter as the season progresses.
RB – Kenneth Dixon
Dixon managed to see only two touches and logged four snaps with West injured. It is uncertain whether Lorenzo Taliaferro or Dixon will replace West if he were to miss Week 9’s game.
RB – Lorenzo Taliaferro
Taliaferro was the bigger beneficiary with West injured, seeing almost three times as many snaps as Dixon and handling four touches. Taliaferro was just activated from the PUP list last week and it was discouraging for Dixon to see fewer snaps and targets. Should West miss this game, whoever starts for him would be an attractive option.
WR – Steve Smith
The Ravens badly need Smith (ankle) to return and they’re hopeful that the bye week was enough to get him healthy. He practiced fully on Friday and is officially listed as questionable.
Smith saw 11 targets in his two games prior to injury and was on pace to see 12 targets in Week 5 when he was injured. With Smith out of the lineup, Flacco has completed less than 57 percent of his passes for two straight weeks.
As long as Smith is healthy, he gets an opportunity to see 10-plus targets against a Steelers defense that ranks 27th against WR1s (per DVOA) and 23rd against the pass. If Smith practices in full on Friday, he should be considered a nice volume option against the Steelers. Monitor the NFL News feed for updates.
WR – Mike Wallace
Wallace has now seen 33 targets in the three games without Smith. For reference, he logged 27 total targets in the four games Smith played. Should Smith return, we can expect him to return to his secondary role. Should Smith miss, Wallace would likely see another nine to 12 targets. At his price, Wallace’s value is solely dependent on Smith’s health this week. He has two or less Pro Trends on both FanDuel and DraftKings this week.
WR – Breshad Perriman
Perriman has seen inconsistent usage in the games without Smith, getting five targets twice and eight targets once. He also hasn’t caught more than 40 percent of his targets for three straight weeks. He’s a GPP dart at best regardless of Smith’s status.
WR – Kamar Aiken
If Smith returns, Aiken’s role will greatly diminish. Aiken runs the majority of his routes from the slot and manned that position with Smith out. He saw six targets in each of the last two games but should be less involved with a healthy WR core.
TE – Dennis Pitta
Pitta also saw increased usage without Smith, getting eight, 10, and 10 targets over the three weeks in which Smith was injured. However, even with 10 targets each of the last two weeks, Pitta did not top 50 yards in either contest. He’s topped 60 yards only once this season and has not scored a single touchdown. While the volume has been nice, Pitta has been very inefficient.
Crockett Gillmore (thigh) has been ruled out, which could result in a few more snaps and targets for Pitta.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
