The Week 9 NFL Dashboard
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Lions at Vikings
The Vikings are six-point favorites for their Week 9 matchup against the Lions. It could be low-scoring affair, as the current Vegas total of 41 points is the lowest mark in Week 9. The Lions are implied to score a slate-low 17.5 points, while the Vikings are implied to score 23.5 points. Let’s take a look at who will be taking the field.
Detroit Lions
Writer: Ian Hartitz
QB – Matthew Stafford
Last week we took a look at Stafford’s previous 15 games and saw how well he’s been playing as of late. Let’s again take a look at his stats since Week 9 of the 2015 season, but this time we’ll account for which defenses finished the season ranked within the bottom-10 in average fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks:
Stafford is averaging over 300 passing yards and 3.5 touchdowns per game in his four games against the aforementioned bottom-10 defenses but just 256 yards and 1.75 touchdowns against everyone else. This has resulted in an average decrease of over 11 fantasy points in games in which Stafford is playing a half-decent defense over his past 16 games. This week, he’ll face a Vikings defense that has allowed the second-fewest fantasy points per game to QBs this season. Stafford is priced at $5,600 on DraftKings with an 88 percent Bargain Rating but will have to overcome a Vikings secondary that has allowed 2.3 points below salary-based expectations to QBs over the past 12 months.
RB – Theo Riddick
Riddick returned from an ankle injury last week and promptly regained his role as the Lions’ featured back. Prior to the 2016 season, he had never received double-digit carries in a game; this season he’s reached this threshold in five of his six games. The results have led to a great first half of the season for Riddick:
As our Trends tool shows, he’s posted a +9.25 Plus/Minus with 83.3 percent Consistency and has averaged 18.9 DK points this season. This week Riddick will face a Vikings defense that has struggled to contain running backs out of the backfield lately, as they’ve allowed over 45 receiving yards per game to RBs over the past two weeks. Riddick is priced at $4,900 on DK and has a +2.63 Projected Plus/Minus.
Riddick (ankle) is officially questionable for Week 9 but expected to play.
RB – Zach Zenner
Zenner had just three rushes last week, while Justin Forsett and Dwayne Washington didn’t touch the ball once. The team appears to be moving forward with Riddick as their featured back even on early downs, so Zenner and company won’t be recommended fantasy options until that changes.
WR – Marvin Jones
Not only has Jones not surpassed 100 receiving yards since Week 3, but he’s also failed to surpass seven targets. He was the team’s most-targeted receiver through three weeks, but since then has not led the team in targets even once. The answer could have something to do with Jones’ 61 percent catch rate. This mark ranks 48th among all wide receivers but fifth among Stafford’s five main targets. Jones is priced at $5,600 on DK with nine Pro Trends but may have a hard time getting back on track against a Vikings defense that ranks third in defensive DVOA against the pass through eight weeks.
Jones (foot) was limited early in the week but is no longer on the team’s injury report. He’s playing in Week 9.
WR – Golden Tate
Tate has received nine-plus targets in three consecutive games and has seemingly regained his status as the offense’s featured wide receiver. Still, this status may not do him much good this week in a matchup that he has historically struggled in. Tate has posted a -2.97 Plus/Minus with 20 percent Consistency and has averaged just 9.3 DK points in his five games as a road underdog of six-plus points over the past three seasons. Things won’t be easier this week against the ageless Terence Newman – PFF’s 10th-highest graded cornerback this season. Tate is priced at $4,700 on DK with a 73 percent Bargain Rating and has six Pro Trends.
WR – Anquan Boldin
Boldin was targeted just three times last week, as the return of Eric Ebron and Riddick significantly reduced Boldin’s role in the offense. He’s a nice contrarian play on weeks when the Lions are missing one of their top-four receivers, but he doesn’t have the consistency on a week-to-week basis to be trusted otherwise. Boldin is priced at $3,600 on DK with a 95 percent Bargain Rating and has a tough matchup against slot cornerback Captain Munnerlyn – PFF’s 24th-highest graded cornerback this season.
TE – Eric Ebron
Ebron had a team-high 10 targets last week, as he was immediately featured in the offense during his first game since the Lions’ Week 4 loss to the Bears. He converted his 10 targets into a career-high seven receptions for 79 yards. This usage in the offense isn’t expected to go anywhere, as Stafford has targeted Ebron on 14.4 percent of his snaps this season – the ninth-highest rate among all tight ends. Ebron is priced at $3,100 on DK with a 92 percent Bargain Rating and has a strong +5.48 Projected Plus/Minus. He does have a tough matchup against a Vikings secondary that has allowed just six passing touchdowns this season – the third-fewest in the league.
Minnesota Vikings
Writer: Ian Hartitz
QB – Sam Bradford
It’s been five games since Bradford threw for more than 275 passing yards and he still hasn’t thrown for three touchdowns in a game this season. In his defense, he hasn’t had many chances to rack up fantasy points, as he’s among the bottom-seven quarterbacks in both red-zone and deep-ball attempts through eight weeks, per playerprofiler.com. Still, his 4.0 adjusted yards per attempt average ranks just 22nd among all QBs, indicating that Bradford isn’t a QB who simply needs more opportunities to break out. With that said, if there were ever a week to give Bradford a GPP shot, it might just be this one against a Lions defense that is dead last in both overall defensive DVOA and pass DVOA. Any exposure to Bradford should be focused on DK, where he’s minimum-priced with a 99 percent Bargain Rating and has a +4.49 Projected Plus/Minus.
RB – Matt Asiata
Asiata received 16 touches as the Vikings’ featured back during their Week 8 loss to the Bears. He struggled to get much of anything going, as has the entire Vikings run game this season. The root of the problem can be traced to their injury-depleted offensive line, which has been graded as the fourth-worst run-blocking unit in the league by playerprofiler.com. The result has been the most inefficient run game in football. Only 39 running backs have received 50-plus carries this season and both Asiata and Jerick McKinnon find themselves among the four-worst backs from the group in average yards per rush. Asiata still holds value as the team’s goal-line back, but he could have a tough time finding the end zone against a Lions defense that has allowed just three rushing touchdowns this season – tied for the second-fewest in the league. He’s priced at $4,300 on DK and has a 60 percent Bargain Rating.
RB – Jerick McKinnon
McKinnon (ankle) didn’t play last week and is officially questionable for Week 9, although he practiced on Thursday and Friday and is expected to play. He’s risky considering he’ll be at less than 100 percent and may have already lost his lead-back role to Asiata. McKinnon was the No. 2 back in Week 7 and is averaging just 3.2 yards per touch this season, compared to 4.3 for Asiata. McKinnon is priced at $4,000 on DK and faces a Lions defense that has allowed a 48.15 percent rush success rate over the past 12 months.
WR – Stefon Diggs
Diggs posted a 8-76-1 line last week. It was both his first game with a touchdown and first game with more than 50 receiving yards since Week 2. Diggs could’ve had an even bigger day if Bradford hadn’t overthrown what should’ve been an easy 50-yard touchdown. He’ll likely continue to be an inconsistent fantasy option due to the incompetence of Bradford and the offensive line, but he has historically been more consistent and performed much better at home:
Diggs has averaged a +4.8 Plus/Minus with 14.81 DK points at home compared to a +1.7 Plus/Minus with 12.15 DK points on the road. Add in the possibility that Darius Slay – PFF’s 10th-highest graded cornerback this season – could miss another game with a hamstring injury, and Diggs has a pretty favorable Week 9 matchup. He’s priced at $6,500 on FD with a 90 percent Bargain Rating and has a +2.45 Projected Plus/Minus.
WR – Adam Thielen
Thielen is averaging 10.4 yards and 1.93 fantasy points per target – rates that rank among the top-20 wide receivers in the league. Still, he hasn’t surpassed five targets in a game this season with Diggs in the lineup. Thielen has shown that he’s a solid receiver and offers great value if Diggs or Kyle Rudolph were to miss some time, but his limited role in the offense gives him a very low floor, even in a good matchup against Quandre Diggs – PFF’s 87th-highest graded cornerback this season. Thielen is priced at $3,800 on DK and has a 4.3-point projected floor.
WR – Cordarrelle Patterson
Patterson’s three targets last week were his fewest since he became an integral part of the offense, although he did catch all three targets as he continues to serve as a reliable underneath threat for Bradford. Patterson’s league-leading 87.5 percent catch rate has helped him average 2.25 fantasy points per target – the third-highest mark among all wide receivers. His salary still sits at just $3,300 on DK, making Patterson an enticing GPP punt play this week that can be combined with the Minnesota D/ST for a potential kick return touchdown and #doublepoints.
TE – Kyle Rudolph
Rudolph hasn’t scored a touchdown in three weeks, but it hasn’t been due to a lack of effort. His 7.7 targets per game rank fourth among all tight ends and his 36.8 percent red-zone target share is the third-highest mark among all tight ends. The Lions defense may be exactly what Rudolph needs to get back on track:
Tight ends of any salary have posted a +4.41 Plus/Minus with 66.7 percent Consistency and have averaged 9.53 DK points against the Lions this season. That’s 10 tight ends in eight weeks that have exceeded their salary-based expectations against the Lions. This means that teams have literally had more than one tight end per game ball out against the Lions this season. Rudolph is priced at $5,000 on FD with a 93 percent Bargain Rating and is our highest-projected tight end of Week 9.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
