Tonight brings a nine-game main slate starting at 6:00pm ET. Let’s jump in.
Point Guard
Studs
I mentioned this in my last NBA Breakdown: In the history of our Trends tool database, which spans the last three seasons, Stephen Curry has never been less than $9,000 on FanDuel. Tonight, he is $8,700 and facing a Portland team that has allowed the seventh-most points this season so far. Further, he’s facing Damian Lillard, who is an elite offensive player but not so great defensively:
Per our NBA Matchups tool, Lillard has one of the worst Defensive Real Plus/Minus marks in the entire league among point guards over the past year. Curry is cheap today for a reason: He’s sucked so far as a daily fantasy sports asset in 2016, missing value on FD in all three games. He has still scored, but his assists and other peripheral stats are down. He’s a risk in cash games given the poor play, but he’s an elite tournament option.
Speaking of Lillard: He owns the highest projected ceiling among all DK and FD point guards at 61.9 and 57.1 points. He has a +3.18 Opponent Plus/Minus, mostly because Golden State wasn’t great defensively against point guards last year, but that’s probably even underselling the matchup: Through three games this year, the Warriors are dead last in defense. Lillard has been the anti-Steph this year, hitting value in his first three games at even higher price tags. His rating is lower than Steph’s in our Player Models mostly because of their $1,200 FD price difference. However, he does bring a lot of safety.
Value
With Ricky Rubio out indefinitely with an elbow issue, Timberwolves rookie Kris Dunn will get his first NBA start quicker than expected. He played only 19 and 15 minutes in their first two games, but we currently have him projected at 29.5 minutes and a 16.33 usage rate. The summer league stud will be a popular value play today at just $4,100 DK and $4,000 FD. He boasts slate-high Projected Plus/Minus marks of +5.95 and +6.88.
Leverage Plays
Pelicans PG Tim Frazier could have been listed in the “Value” section above — he has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus on the slate for FD PGs at +6.49 — but he’s an interesting ‘Leverage Play’ as well. Most people will be on Dunn at $1,500 cheaper instead of Frazier, who struggled in Game 3 against the Spurs, scoring only 18.3 FD points in 25.2 minutes. However, that was the Spurs and Frazier is still very cheap. His salary has increased on FD only $500 since the start of the season, and he’s projected for 32.8 minutes and a 19.9 usage rate. He’s an interesting pivot up from the likely-popular Dunn.
Kyrie Irving is an another interesting leverage play down from Steph and Lillard. He sits at $7,800 on FD — DK isn’t offering this game and starts their slates at 7:00pm ET — and he faces a Houston team that has allowed opponents to score 1.23 points per shot so far this season. They’ve played at a slower pace than expected so far — they own a 98.3 Pace this season — but that is likely to tick up over a larger sample. Kyrie is projected for just five to eight percent ownership on FD and boasts a projected ceiling similar to Steph’s.
Shooting Guard
Studs
Bucks position-less star Giannis Antetokounmpo has hit salary-based expectations in all three games this season at $9,000-plus price tags, scoring at least 42 FD points in all three affairs. Tonight, he’ll face a Pelicans team that is playing at the second-fastest pace so far in 2016 and has allowed the fifth-highest points per shot. He’s been an elite option this season and is projected for 35.4 minutes and a 26.4 usage rate against projected defender Solomon Hill, who has allowed offensive players to score 4.2 DK points above expectations in the past year. Giannis is expensive at $9,600 FD (he’s a PG on DK), but that’s still cheaper than James Harden, who is nursing an ankle injury and facing a tough Cavs defense.
Values
Klay Thompson and Evan Fournier again lead the slate in Projected Plus/Minus values on FD at +5.78 and +4.90. At just $5,800 and $6,000, they’re just too cheap. Klay has certainly struggled this season: He’s exceeded 33 minutes in all three games this year, yet he’s scored above 25 FD points just once, and it was against the fast-paced Pelicans. Two nights ago against an injured Devin Booker, Klay could muster only 24.2 FD points in over 40 minutes of action. However, it’s probably wise to bet on some reversion to the mean: He has only three 3-pointers on the season on 23 attempts. Fournier is actually projected for higher usage at 24.9 percent and probably would be more expensive if not for his 16.4-point FD outing in Game 2 against the Pistons. He’ll get the lowly 76ers tonight and is a nice, safe play in all formats.
Leverage Play
Perhaps the best leverage play of the entire slate is Zach LaVine, who should see an underrated bump with Rubio out tonight. Per our NBA On/Off tool, in six games last season without Rubio, LaVine saw a team-high 5.9 percent increase in usage rate and outperformed salary-based expectations by an average of 13.4 DK points per game. He averaged a team-high 32.5 DK points in those contests. While everyone locks into Dunn, look at LaVine in tournaments.
Small Forward
Stud
Although the other Warriors have struggled so far this year, the new season hasn’t fazed Kevin Durant in the slightest. In his first three games with the team, he has exceeded salary-based expectations in all three and averaged 57.4 DK points in 37.9 minutes of action. He’s been a beast in all categories, scoring at least 27 points in all three games and accumulating 31 total rebounds, 14 assists, eight blocks, and five steals. Tonight, we have him projected for 37.8 minutes and a 28.3 usage rate against a Portland team that has played at a top-10 pace this season. He’s the highest-rated FD SF in the Phan Model.
Right below him in rating sits some dude named LeBron James. The King has now hit salary-based expectations in two of three games this season, but the most important stat has been his minute totals: It was thought that perhaps he would reduce his workload during the regular season, but that doesn’t seem to be the case so far. He’s played 39 minutes in each of his last two games and could be gunning for the MVP this season. He’s $100 more than Durant on FD — again, he’s not available on DK tonight — and he will face Trevor Ariza, who (despite his solid defensive reputation) is a poor DFS defender with a -0.7 DRPM over the past year.
Value
Kawhi Leonard is obviously a stud — his projected ceiling is right behind Durant’s and LeBron’s tonight — but I put him in this section to highlight an important point: An expensive player can still be an extreme value. That is certainly the case with Kawhi, who has an $8,300 FD price tag and a slate-high Projected Plus/Minus of +11.2. In fact, that’s the highest Projected Plus/Minus among all players tonight. He’s been an absolute monster this year, scoring 20 points in every game and racking up a ton of assists and steals as well. Tonight he’ll face a Utah team that ranks 12th on defense this year and is perhaps a bit overrated on that end currently with Hayward out. He’s a stud, value, and probably a good pivot from Durant and LeBron, too.
Leverage Play
The leverage play tonight is the guy who boasts the highest rating in the DK Phan Model among SFs, Paul George. He really struggled last game, scoring only 28.3 DK points in 23.6 minutes of action. You can see why that’s a bit misleading however: We have him projected to play 34.8 minutes and use 27.9 percent of the Pacers’ possessions while on the floor. George has been hyper-efficient lately, scoring 1.36 fantasy points per minute — the second-highest mark among SFs behind Durant. George has the third-highest projected ceiling in the slate among DK SFs yet should come with reduced ownership given the amount of SF studs available. He’ll face a Lakers team that hasn’t been good defensively in years.
Power Forward
Studs
After putting up back-to-back games of 95.7 and 76.9 FD points, Anthony Davis got Spurs-ed in Game 3: He had only 29 FD points in 31.6 minutes of action and shot a poor six of 15 from the field. Tonight’s matchup is much easier: He’ll face a Bucks team that has allowed 104.8 points per 100 possessions so far this season and last season ranked as a bottom-10 unit. Per our Matchups tool, he’ll go against Jabari Parker, who has purely awful defensive stats so far in his career: Over the last year, he owns a -2.0 DRPM and has allowed offensive players to score 8.9 DK points above salary-based expectations. Davis, who is currently projected for 37.9 minutes and a slate-high 32.4 usage rate, could get back to his historic ways tonight.
Values
There’s quite a bit of value at PF tonight: Per our FD Player Models, Davis, Gorgui Dieng, Kristaps Porzingis, Dario Saric, and Richaun Holmes all have Projected Plus/Minus values of at least +5.0. We’ll focus on Dieng and Porzingis, however, as they are both projected to play at least 34 minutes, whereas Saric and Holmes are both under 30. Dieng is actually the highest-rated FD PF in the Phan Model currently, and he’s been a beast this year: In his two games, he has scored 35.6 and 37.8 FD points at an average of just $5,600 salary. He’s only $6,200 DK and $5,900 FD. Kristaps is another guy who is just too cheap at $6,600 FD. He’s played well in the first two games of his sophomore season, exceeding salary-based expectations in both contests. He’ll face a tough matchup tonight against Detroit, who ranks sixth in defense this year. He could be sneaky, however, as he’ll match up against the smaller Tobias Harris and avoid Andre Drummond.
Leverage Play
Draymond Green is an interesting pivot down from Davis on DK, where he’s $3,100. Surprisingly, Draymond hasn’t been impacted by the addition of Durant the way that Steph and Klay have: He’s hit salary-based expectations in all three contests this year. Tonight, he is projected for 35.8 minutes against a Portland team that has played at a top-10 pace this year. As you’d expect, this game has the highest Vegas total on the board at 225. Per our NBA Matchups tool, Draymond will face Al-Farouq Aminu, who has allowed offensive players to score 1.0 fantasy points per minutes over the past year. Draymond can certainly win that battle.
If you want a shot in the dark for tournaments, Detroit’s Jon Leuer is currently the highest-rated PF in the Phan Model. At just $3,700 DK, he needs only 16.15 points to hit salary-based expectation, something he has done in two of his first three games. He’s played at least 27 minutes in each of his last two and is projected for 25.8 minutes and a 16.4 usage rate tonight against the Knicks, who have a bottom-10 rebound rate this season. Leuer grabbed nine boards in two of his first three games and could be a sneaky GPP play at almost min price.
Center
Stud
Hassan Whiteside is yet again atop the Phan Model for FD, and for good reason: The dude has been a stud this year, exceeding salary-based expectations in all three contests. Last game against the tough Spurs defense, Whiteside put up 55.5 FD points in 34.9 minutes, scoring 27 points, grabbing 15 boards, and blocking four shots. He’s had rebound totals of 15, 15, and 14 this year, and he’ll face a Kings team that currently ranks 19th in rebound rate on the year. Because the Kings play small with DeMarcus Cousins at the four and Kosta Koufos at the five, he should play against the latter most of the time. And that is enticing, as Kouf has posted a DRPM of -0.3 and has allowed a Plus/Minus to opposing centers of +3.8 on DK over the past year.
In this same game, we obviously have to look at Cousins, who always deserves consideration. Per our Matchups tool, he’ll face up against Luke Babbitt, but it’s definitely possible that the Heat will let Whiteside deal with him and let Kouf go mostly unguarded. Boogie struggled in his last game, scoring only 27.9 FD points in 31.7 minutes against a surprisingly-stout Atlanta Hawks defense that actually ranks first — by a mile, too — in defense this year. Miami is average on defense, ranking 15th and allowing 103.3 points per 100 possessions. Boogie is projected for 33.6 minutes and a massive usage rate of 34.8 percent. He’s an excellent GPP option, although it’s understandable to pay down or go with Whiteside in cash.
Value
After playing only 14.6 minutes in Game 1 — and scoring a pathetic 4.75 DK points in that game — Mason Plumlee has now gone 30-plus minutes in his last two and has exceeded salary-based expectations both times. He has a poor Opponent Plus/Minus metric, but that’s a bit misleading considering how poor Golden State, his opponent today, has been over the first three games: The Warriors are the worst team in the league on defense so far. Plumlee may not get 30 minutes again — he’s projected for 26.3 and a 16.3 usage rate — but his salary at $4,600 DK is definitely still worth targeting. He has the highest DK Projected Plus/Minus on the slate at +6.15 and third-highest on FD at +6.13.
The two guys higher than him on FD are Clint Capela and Joel Embiid, two young centers who have played low minute totals but have been very efficient at putting up fantasy points in their time. Embiid, for example, played only 15.5 minutes last game against the Hawks but put up 20.9 FD points in that period. In Game 1, he put up 28.4 points in 22.4 minutes. He’s currently averaging 1.3 fantasy points per minute, which is second in the slate among centers behind Cousins. There’s obviously risk with these two guys — they’re projected for minute totals of 26.1 and 23.4, respectively — but they could exceed expectations in that time.
Leverage Play
This leverage play is similar to the one for SG: I’m going with Karl-Anthony Towns. As shown in the graphic above, KAT didn’t really receive a significant boost when Rubio was out last year. In fact, he was actually slightly worse in terms of value, posting an average Plus/Minus of -1.8 on DK in the six games sans Rubio. He was still second on the team in total DK points, however, with 30.7. The reason he’s an interesting leverage play in tournaments isn’t because he provides excess value with the lineup shakeup. Rather, his ownership should drop because people will roster Dunn, Dieng, and possibly LaVine at higher rates. And, honestly, we don’t know how life will be with Dunn instead of Rubio. Use that uncertainty to your advantage and get one of the most talented players in the league at reduced ownership tonight.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
