Three of tonight’s four games begin at 7:30pm ET. Let’s jump in.
Point Guard
Stud
Although the Clippers are playing the second night of a back-to-back, both games will have taken place at the Staples Center and yesterday’s game was at 4:30pm ET, alleviating concerns about sluggish play. Additionally, their opponent (the Suns) will play their fourth game in six days.
Chris Paul leads all guards in Opponent Plus/Minus (+8.23 on DraftKings and +7.37 on FanDuel). His nine assists from Sunday may not show it, but he seemed too content deferring offensive responsibility. His average second per touch of 4.7 seconds was second on the team and 0.82 seconds less than his average last year. Because the Clippers are currently -10.5 favorites, I’m more inclined to fade Paul on FanDuel, where he’s at least $1,700 more than the next most expensive point guard. When Paul costs no more than $8,500 on DK, he’s historically provided a +3.27 Plus/Minus on 69.2 percent Consistency. He’s more appealing there at that price.
Values
Kyle Lowry leads all point guards in Projected Plus/Minus on both sites, yet his projected ownership sits at 13 to 16 percent on FanDuel. Early-season returns haven’t been encouraging, but as his price decreases he becomes less avoidable. He’s currently $7,400 on both sites, and with the crop of point guards available, Lowry may classify as both a ‘Value’ and ‘Leverage Play.’
Ty Lawson leads the Kings in minutes played through three games, as was expected. His fantasy production has incrementally declined since the opener, but his salary has barely moved: He is $5,600 on DK and $5,100 on FD tonight. He’s currently the fourth-highest rated point guard in the Phan Model, but he does come with 13 to 16 percent ownership.
Leverage Play
Eric Bledsoe and Lowry are both priced at $7,400 on FanDuel. The Suns are playing the second night of a back-to-back on the road and are currently implied to score eight fewer points than the Raptors. Bledsoe may get overlooked, but in his last six games against the Clippers, he accumulated a +7.96 Plus/Minus on FanDuel and +8.63 Plus/Minus on DraftKings, where he costs $300 less than Lowry.
Shooting Guard
Studs
DeMar DeRozan was one of three Raptors to average a positive Plus/Minus against the Nuggets last season. Through two games, the Nuggets lead the NBA in pace at 108.7 possessions per 48 minutes, and DeRozan leads the Raptors with 36.4 minutes per game and ranks second in the NBA with 27.5 shots attempts per contest and a 40.7 percent usage rate. Two 45-plus DraftKings performances to start the season tosses DeRozan into cash-game consideration until he cools off and sees a drop in usage.
Through two games, Dwyane Wade leads all Chicago starters with a usage rate of 25.6 percent, and he was mercifully limited to 21 minutes in Saturday’s game. To reiterate, Wade isn’t expected to play more than 30 to 32 minutes per game, and early in the season is when you want to ratchet up exposure on him. Through five games, the Bulls rank 26th in pace, but they’ll play a team ranked sixth in that category. The salary gap favors Wade on both platforms, and his ceiling and floor are similar to DeRozan’s.
Value
Gary Harris (groin) won’t play for the third straight contest. In Denver’s first two games, Will Barton ranked second on the team in minutes played (37.9) and first in average Plus/Minus on DraftKings at +8.3. His salary has increased $1,100 since opening night, which decreases his appeal, but it’s held firm on FanDuel. Even with the price hike, Harris’ absence has historically resulted in 30.6 DraftKings points and 29.1 FanDuel points for Barton (per our NBA On/Off tool).
Leverage Play
Devin Booker has been dealing with a sprained right toe over the past two weeks. He aggravated the area in Friday’s game and exited last night’s game briefly before returning. Coach Earl Watson said Booker is “hurt really bad,” but there was no mention of resting him. The Suns and Clippers play the lone late game, and Brandon Knight would likely consume most of Booker’s minutes in the event of a late scratch. Knight has missed salary-based expectations in two of three games this year, but he played only 25 minutes in those two instances. He’s certainly interesting tonight if Booker is limited.
Small Forward
Stud
Jimmy Butler was limited to 26 minutes in the Bulls’ blowout win over the Pacers. The Nets have played in three straight single-digit contests, and Butler owns a tasty +6.71 Opponent Plus/Minus given his past-year positional splits. The Bulls are currently implied to score a slate-best 108.75 points, making Butler the obvious choice at small forward if you decide to pay up.
Value
T.J. Warren’s Plus/Minus through three games stands at +17.35 on DraftKings and +17.67 on FanDuel. It will be difficult to fade him, especially with Booker dealing with a sprained right toe. Warren’s implied point total on both sites is less than his lowest DFS score this season, and he leads the Suns in minutes per game (35.5) and shots per game (17.0). The Clippers are typically inclined to play small units, and the small forward duo of Luc Mbah a Moute and Wesley Johnson have combined to average 32 minutes per game. Warren is in play in all formats at $5,400 on DraftKings and $5,500 on FanDuel.
Leverage Play
In the 2014-15 season, Rudy Gay averaged a +1.91 Plus/Minus on DraftKings. In 2015-16, he averaged a +0.23 Plus/Minus. The difference between the seasons was Rajon Rondo‘s presence. Sans Rondo, Gay has returned to form, contributing a +9.10 Plus/Minus through the first three games, one of which included Kawhi Leonard on the other end. Gay costs $1,000 more on FanDuel than he does on DraftKings, where he owns a 98 percent Bargain Rating.
Power Forward
Studs
Blake Griffin and Paul Millsap are back for round two of ‘Take Your Pick.’ Although Griffin prevailed in the first installment, both handily exceeded salary-based expectations. The Hawks should be well-rested after playing a noon game against the Sixers on Saturday, and the Clippers will play a second consecutive home game. Similar to last time, Griffin offers the higher ceiling and Millsap gifts the safer floor.
Millsap’s defensive assignment, most likely DeMarcus Cousins, leads the league with 11.0 fouls drawn per game, but Millsap has racked up only three fouls in two games and hasn’t historically been prone to foul trouble: He’s fouled out twice in the past two seasons. Dwight Howard is the bigger risk when the Kings downsize and move Cousins to center.
Griffin has carried over his preseason usage rate in the regular season — a team-high 29 percent — and, with DeAndre Jordan dealing with a sprained right thumb that forced him to miss a portion of Sunday’s game, Griffin could play a bigger role in the offense. He certainly draws the easier matchup, but he’s more expensive than Millsap by $900 on both sites. If the salary cap becomes a problem, shifting down to Millsap isn’t a large tradeoff, but I prefer Griffin, especially in tournaments.
Value
Nikola Mirotic leads all power forwards on both sites in Projected Plus/Minus, and the Bulls are playing on the road, where Mirotic generated a 70 percent Consistency rate last season.
Leverage Play
With Brook Lopez set to return, Trevor Booker will likely be considered an afterthought by DFS users. In the first two games, Booker played half his minutes without Lopez and exceeded salary-based expectations both times. When Lopez was on the court, Booker’s rebounding rate improved by 5.8 percent, and he leads the Nets with 10.7 rebounds per game. Assuming coach Kenny Atkinson is hell-bent on limiting Lopez most of this season, Booker appears to be the primary benefactor.
Center
Stud
DeMarcus Cousins leads all players on DraftKings with a $10,800 salary. That’s a high number to swallow in a matchup against this year’s top-ranked defense in the Hawks, but he’s much more palatable on FanDuel at $9,900. Through the first two games, Cousins leads the Kings with a 38.9 percent usage rate and leads all players with a projected ceiling of 61.9 points on FanDuel.
Value
Jonas Valanciunas leads all players in Projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel (+10.14) and DraftKings (+7.95), while ranking second in overall projected ceiling. Historically, centers with a Projected Plus/Minus between +8.0 and +12.0 on FanDuel have responded with a +5.94 Plus/Minus on 71 percent Consistency. The Nuggets have allowed both opposing starting centers to exceed salary-based expectations through two games; one of those was Anthony Davis’ 50-point opening night massacre.
Leverage Play
Brook Lopez exceeded salary-based expectations in three of the four games against his brother last season. He also has yet to play more than 26 minutes in a game this season, and his fit in the Nets’ motion offense is clunky at best. His $6,900 DraftKings salary is at least $100 cheaper than any salary he had against the Knicks last year, and as mentioned when discussing Booker, Lopez may no longer be held in high regard among DFS players. He was owned in less than 0.5 percent of GPPs on FanDuel in the first two games.
News Updates
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