The first Sunday of the NBA season includes seven games in the all-day slate starting at 4:30pm ET and six in the 6:00pm main slate. Let’s jump in.
Point Guard
Studs
Between Anthony Davis and Russell Westbrook, we’ve seen some ridiculous point totals on DraftKings and FanDuel. Westbrook is in today’s slate and is coming off an 89.25-point DK outing against the Phoenix Suns in 45.3 minutes of play. That might seem like an outlier game, and it probably is in the extreme: It’s unlikely he’ll post almost 90-point games often. However, Westbrook’s silly numbers haven’t come off unpredictable usage. He may not put up 44 shots as he did against the Suns — nearly a shot a minute — but he will put up one of the higher usage seasons ever. Per Basketball Reference, he could vie for that title even if his usage rate came drastically down:
Today, he is expensive yet again at $12,200 DK and $13,000 FD. He might make it too difficult to build a roster around his salary. However, just know that you’re fading one of the most talented players in the world putting up historical usage numbers.
Yes, we’re currently in a DFS landscape where Stephen Curry is projected to play 34.7 minutes against a Suns defense that ranked 26th last year and yet he is $4,200 cheaper than Westbrook on FD: $4,200! For reference, that is the same price as Tyson Chandler — who played 39 minutes last game, by the way — and Andrew Bogut. Is Westbrook better than Curry by ’30 minutes of Tyson Chandler‘? That’s certainly the question today, although the Phan Model is pretty clear for both sites: Curry is a top-three rated player at any position. The last time he was less than $9,000 FD (at least according to our Trends tool database that spans the last three seasons) was . . . never. This is literally the cheapest prime Steph has ever been. He’s certainly been poor so far this year, but buying low on Curry isn’t a bad idea in tournaments.
Value
Goran Dragic hasn’t put up gaudy numbers this year, but he does project to play 30-plus minutes with a fairly high usage rate of 25.95. At his current $6,600 FD salary, he has an implied expectation of 26.8 points, a mark he’s hit in both games this season and set to surpass if his 0.83 fantasy points per minute holds up. The Spurs offer a really tough matchup — they’ve held PGs to four points below their expectations in the first two games — but if there’s a spot to attack the Spurs it’s at point guard. Per our NBA Matchups tool, Tony Parker has allowed opposing ball-handlers to score at a rate of 1.3 points per possession — one of the worst marks among all PGs. The Dragic-Whiteside pick-and-roll is a staple of the Miami offense given their current roster. Dragic could surprise at low ownership and a low price point.
Leverage Play
John Wall is definitely the leverage play among PGs today: Like Curry, he struggled in this first week. In his first game against the Hawks, he made only three of his 15 shots, committed five turnovers, and finished with 35.6 FD points in 30.3 minutes of action. Today, he faces a tougher matchup than Curry, going against Mike Conley and a Memphis team that has held FD PGs to -0.46 points below salary-based expectations in the last year. Another huge difference between Wall and Curry is that Wall hasn’t been priced down: He’s actually $500 more expensive than Curry on FD. Most people will look at Curry’s salary and matchup and roster him at a much higher level: He’s projected to be owned in 13 to 16 percent of FD lineups compared to just nine to 12 percent for Wall. The latter is certainly risky, but he could pay off in a big way with everyone likely on Westbrook, Curry, or cheaper options.
Shooting Guard
Stud
James Harden last game put up 26 points, seven rebounds, eight assists, and four 3-pointers in 35 minutes — and missed value on FD. That’s the problem with paying so much for a single player: Harden’s current $11,200 salary on FD puts his implied expectation at 47.03 points, which is right around where his projection currently sits. He has little room for error in cash games. However, there’s no denying his upside: He boasts the highest-projected ceiling among SGs at 64.3 points and faces a Dallas defense that currently ranks as the third-worst unit so far this season. This game has the second-highest Vegas total on the slate at 216.5 and Harden is projected to play 37.1 minutes and use possessions at a 31.72 percent rate. He’s definitely always in play in guaranteed prize pools, although it might be tough to use him in cash games today, especially because of the nice SG values . . .
Values
Devin Booker and Klay Thompson — who might be the same player, for all we know — currently boast the highest Projected Plus/Minus values on FD at +6.06 and +5.08, respectively. They’re priced at $6,100 and $6,300, projected for around 35 minutes, and expected to use at least 23 percent of their team’s possessions while on the floor. With implied salary expectations around 25 points, both players seem like fairly easy cash-game options, especially if you want to spend up at PG or other positions. They actually play each other today, and neither team is particularly great defensively so far. In fact, the Warriors actually boast the worst defense in the NBA at this point of the season, allowing 112.7 points per 100 possessions through two games. This game has the highest total on the board at 224 and should include a lot of possessions and shots for these two value SGs.
Leverage Play
The second-highest rated SG in the Phan Model today (behind Booker) is Victor Oladipo. After struggling in his first game with the Thunder — he put up only 18.25 DK points in 26.1 minutes against the lowly 76ers — he rebounded against the Suns in Game 2, putting up 34.75 DK points in 43.7 minutes. At some point, the Thunder will need to rely on their young trade acquisition and give Westbrook a break. I know I mentioned above that Russ could be in line for the highest usage season ever, but he could still do that and give a couple more possessions to Oladipo. Certainly at $6,500 DK, and especially on a slate in which most people will look to the SG options mentioned above — Vic isn’t a bad pivot.
Small Forward
Studs
Kevin Durant in Golden State seems to be pretty good: He’s now put up at least 53 FD points in his first two games. Last game, he accumulated 65.4 points with a diverse stat line, scoring 30 points, grabbing 17 boards, and dishing out six assists. He’s playing a ton of minutes — he’s been at 37 and 39 in the first two — and using possessions at a 24.9 percent rate while on the floor. Again, we’ll need time to figure out the dynamics of this new-look Warriors roster, but the very early returns seem to suggest that Durant won’t have to sacrifice a ton of his productivity. He is an outstanding option tonight facing a Suns team that has allowed 3.5 points above salary-based expectations on FD in the past year. He owns the slate’s highest-projected ceiling among SFs and has an +8.05 Projected Plus/Minus.
There is one guy, however, who boasts a higher Projected Plus/Minus on FD — and this is interesting, as the two SF ‘studs’ actually boast the highest Projected Plus/Minus values on the slate — and it’s Kawhi Leonard. He came back down to earth a bit in Game 3 of the season, scoring ‘only’ 33.3 FD points in 28 minutes against the Pelicans. That was a blowout, however, and the Heat could at least keep things interesting today: The Spurs are seven-point favorites currently but are playing on the second leg of a back-to-back. That’s probably a slight bump for Kawhi as well, but it’s early in the season and he’s fairly safe given his high 28.6 projected usage rate. At $1,000 less than Durant, Kawhi is a stud, value, and interesting leverage play all rolled into one.
Value
Again, our Player Models suggest that Durant and Kawhi are the best ‘values,’ despite their slate-high price tags. However, one guy who can potentially rival them in terms of value on both sites is TJ Warren, who boasts Projected Plus/Minus values of +4.65 DK and +6.39 FD. He’s not really sneaky after scoring 30 real points and 44.3 FD points in his last outing against the Thunder. He did play a ton of minutes in that game (46), but even if that comes down to his current 33.4 projection for today, he’s still an immense value at $5,000 on both sites. He has an interesting matchup against Durant, who has been an elite defender in the past but has struggled this season, allowing opponents to score at a high rate of 1.0 fantasy point per minute.
Leverage Play
An interesting leverage play is a guy who is $1,100 more than Warren on DK and $400 more on FD: Harrison Barnes. I know, NBA Twitter has a lot of thoughts about Harry B and whether he’s actually good at basketball or not. And those are fine, but what is more important is that he has been playing 30-plus minutes for the Mavericks and has been using 22.5 percent of their possessions while on the floor. He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in both games this year and put up 39.5 against the Rockets — his opponent again today — on Friday night. He’ll be guarded by Trevor Ariza, whose defensive reputation far outweighs his actual on-court production at this point: He was poor last year and already owns a -0.7 DRPM mark this season.
Power Forward
Studs
After dominating the Warriors in Game 1 of the season, LaMarcus Aldridge has been pretty poor in Games 2 and 3, scoring a combined 43.7 FD points in those two games. However, the same note in the Kawhi blurb above applies to Aldridge: Given the fact that this is a back-to-back for the Spurs, the Heat could keep this game close and force Aldridge and the starters to play 30-plus minutes. If that happens, Aldridge can definitely hit value on his $7,600 FD price tag: He’s averaged 1.08 fantasy points per minute over the past year. And we currently do have him projected for a solid number of minutes (31.5) and a high usage rate (26.1). He has the highest projected ceiling on the slate, although his floor is lower than that of this next guy . . .
Draymond Green owns the highest-projected floor among PFs today at 25.2 FD points. He missed value last game, scoring 32.7 points in 34.1 minutes, but his numbers overall have been encouraging in the small sample of this season: He’s grabbed 23 boards and dished out 13 assists. It was likely with the addition of Durant that Green would see a dip in usage and shots, but the bigger concern was whether he could still rack up assists and be involved as a play-maker in the offense. If his assist totals are any indication, he is doing fine in that regard and is thus an interesting GPP play at $7,500 DK and $8,300 FD given the game’s high total. He could also be considered a leverage play, as teammates Curry, Klay, and Durant should bring in high ownership.
Values
The power forwards with the two highest Projected Plus/Minus values on FD are Enes Kanter and JaMychal Green. They’re definitely different players: Kanter is projected for only 22.6 minutes off the bench but should use a high number of possessions (24.03) while on the floor. Green, on the other hand, should be on the floor quite a bit — he’s projected for 30.4 minutes against the Wizards — but he has a lower usage rate of 19.44. Both sit at $5,000 FD and thus have to hit 19.8 points to meet salary-based expectations. Kanter really disappointed last game, putting up only 4.4 FD points in 12.3 minutes, while Green has met value in both games. These guys bring some risk, but their low price tags make them interesting value punt plays in tournaments.
Leverage Plays
You’ll have to play in the early 4:30pm slate to roster Blake Griffin, but it could definitely be worth it. The Clippers have played in only one game this year, but Griffin dominated in his 36.5 minutes, scoring 27 points and grabbing 13 boards — a 52.6-point FD outing. He has the highest salary among FD PFs and third-highest on DK, if you include multi-position eligible players in Durant and Kawhi. He is the highest-salaried PF on FD, which could keep his ownership depressed, given Aldridge and Green’s lower price tags and better matchups. Griffin is projected for 34.4 minutes and a 28.4 usage rate against a tough Jazz frontcourt.
Center
Studs
Hassan Whiteside is the highest-salaried center on both DraftKings and FanDuel at $8,000 and $8,300 — ahead of other big names like Andre Drummond and DeAndre Jordan. Whiteside is dealing with an elbow injury but is expected to play today against the Spurs, who are perhaps a bit more vulnerable than their defensive numbers would suggest. San Antonio is playing on the second leg of a back-to-back and Whiteside will match up against Pau Gasol down low, who has allowed a high 1.1 fantasy points per minute rate to opposing centers over the past year. Whiteside has dominated in his last two games, putting up lines of 20-15-2 and 18-14-4. He has the highest-projected ceiling among centers at 64.3 FD points and is the highest-rated C in the DK Phan Model.
Value
Whiteside actually leads all centers with a +5.7 Projected Plus/Minus on FD, but right behind him sits Phoenix center Tyson Chandler. The 34-year-old vet isn’t a sexy DFS play at this point of his career, but he has put up 19-point FD outings in back-to-back games and played 38 minutes in his last outing against the Thunder. For reference, his $4,200 FD salary gives him an implied expectation of 16.3 points. Thus, he has a nice Projected Plus/Minus of +4.9. Further, he’s posted solid games so far on only 7.9 percent usage — an incredibly low number. He’s projected for only 12.29 percent today, but if it barely bumps up he’s shown that he can score fantasy points in a variety of ways: He has pulled down 10 rebounds per game and is facing a Golden State team that likes to play small and currently ranks dead last in the NBA with 46.5 rebounds per game.
Leverage Play
The two other stud centers mentioned above, Drummond and Jordan, are interesting pivot plays from the dominant Whiteside. Jordan is in the early slate and disappointed in his first game of the season, putting up a sad 6-12-1 line at an $8,000 price tag. Drummond also struggled in his first game of the year but bounced back nicely in the second, scoring 40.5 FD points in just 27.5 minutes of play. Drummond is actually the highest-rated center in the FD Phan Model for today. Both have projected ceilings above 50 fantasy points on both sites and are candidates to explode for a 20-20 game at any time. What separates the two is matchup: Jordan has a brutal matchup against Utah (-2.47 Opponent Plus/Minus), whereas Drummond has an excellent one against Milwaukee (+8.47 Opp Plus/Minus).
Good luck tonight!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
