We have the World Series in Chicago, the first weekend of NBA slates, and NFL Week 8. Is there a more perfect time of year?
Point Guard
Stud
In his last eight games, Damian Lillard has played the Warriors five times, the Clippers twice, and the Jazz once. He hasn’t scored below 39 FD points in any of those games, which is right above his implied expectation (37.8) today based on salary. And tonight? He gets the Nuggets, who last year ranked as the seventh-worst team on defense. He leads all PGs in the slate with 1.1 fantasy points per minute in the past year and is currently projected for slate-high marks with 35.7 minutes and 31.7 usage. There’s a reason that his projected ceiling on FD is 9.1 points higher than that of any other player.
Values
Ricky Rubio struggled in his first game of the season, putting up only 20 DraftKings points in 33.5 minutes of action. It has now been 10 games since he’s even attempted double-digit shots. As a result, his projected usage rate (17.2) is fairly low for a point guard expected to play 32.5 minutes tonight. But that’s fine: Per Nylon Calculus, Rubio last year had a top-five play-making usage rate of 24.5 percent, which is defined as the percentage of plays in which the player contributes a potential assist or free throw. He doesn’t have the scoring floor, but given his assist opportunities and steal rate he’s a value play in tournaments, especially at just $6,000 DK and $6,300 FD — low salaries that give him slate-high Projected Plus/Minus values of +7.35 DK and +7.38 FD.
Pelicans starting PG Tim Frazier played really well in his first game of the season, putting up 40.5 FD points in 36.8 minutes of action against the Nuggets. Last night in his second game? Just a ho-hum 21 points, six rebounds, and 10 assists in 34 minutes. With Jrue Holiday and Tyreke Evans out, it seems that Frazier is going to dominate the majority of the Pel’s PG minutes and put up high usage. If that’s the case, keep riding him in cash games until DK and FD appropriately price him: He’s still only $5,600 DK and $5,300 FD. At those prices, he has high Projected Plus/Minus values of +7.35 DK and +7.37 FD. In guaranteed prize pools he’ll probably be chalky: He’s currently projected for a slate-high 17-20 percent ownership on FD.
Leverage Play
Remember when I said Lillard’s projected ceiling was so much higher than any other PG’s? Well that’s not exactly true on DK, because Giannis Antetokounmpo — a SG on FD and probably SF on defense/real life — is listed as a PG on DK this year. He actually boasts the slate’s highest-projected ceiling (62.2) on that site and is actually $300 cheaper than Lillard. The point-Giannis experiment is still early in its testing, but Game 1 returns were nice: He put up 31 points, nine rebounds, and five assists — a 53.75-point DK outing in a whopping 38.7 minutes of play. Tonight he will face the Nets, who last year ranked second-worst on defense and, per our NBA Matchups tool, will likely start Bojan Bogdanovic on him. Bojan has allowed players to score 5.8 points above salary-based expectations against him over the past year — the third-worst mark in the slate.
Shooting Guard
Stud
On FD, Giannis is $2,400 more expensive than any other SG. Since we just discussed him above, we’ll move down the salary tier to a lower-price stud.
Portland off-guard CJ McCollum is currently projected for top-three marks of 35.1 minutes and 27.4 usage. He barely missed value last game against the Clippers, scoring 26.8 FD points in 38 minutes. Last season, McCollum was very efficient in a high-usage role: He posted a top-15 true usage mark, ahead of guys like DeMar DeRozan, Gordon Hayward, Jimmy Butler, and other ball-handling wings. Because of this, he has a fairly safe floor: His 21.9-point projected floor is second on the slate behind Butler’s (22.5) — a player who is $800 more expensive.
Value
Magic guard Evan Fournier is simply just too cheap on FD ($5,800) for his projected minute (35.9) and usage rate (25.3). His implied point total based on that salary is just 23.3, which he far exceeded in Game 1 and should exceed again if his 0.73 fantasy points per minute holds to form. He leads all SGs with a +6.78 Projected Plus/Minus, even in a matchup against a Cavs squad that ranked top-10 in defense last season and is first overall this year. That’s certainly not ideal, but again: He’s just too cheap on FD, where he owns a 90 percent Bargain Rating.
Leverage Play
Avery Bradley certainly isn’t a sexy play, but he’s only $5,100 DK and projected to play 34.4 minutes against the Hornets, who are playing on the second night of a back-to-back. Bradley has hit value in both games this season, eclipsing 32 DK points in both contests. He has a 93 percent Bargain Rating and +4.85 Projected Plus/Minus. He’s currently the highest-rated DK SG in the Phan Model.
Small Forward
Studs
Until LeBron James shows otherwise, I won’t claim anyone else is the best player in the NBA. But . . . through two games, Kawhi Leonard looks really freaking good. In Game 1, he was the best player on the floor against the #SuperTeam and put up 53.5 FD points. He followed that up with a 50.1-point FD outing in Game 2. He’s clearly ‘the guy’ for the Spurs this season: He’s used a massive 35.4 percent of their possessions so far. He should be priced way higher given his play but is only $8,400 FD. He’s the highest-rated FD player at any position in the Phan Model, boasting a ridiculous +10.76 Projected Plus/Minus.
Value
Lance Stephenson has now put up an average of 25.13 DK points in his first two games at the minimum $3,000 salary. DK has been slow to price up guys in this first week: He’s only $3,300 tonight and projected for 25.5 minutes. It’s certainly a tough matchup against the Spurs, but that could actually work in Lance’s favor: The Pelicans put him on Durant last game — which Durant did not like — and they could do the same with Kawhi tonight. Regardless, Lance has nice upside for his low salary and is an interesting GPP punt play on DK, where he has a +6.05 Projected Plus/Minus.
Leverage Plays
Paul George has put up at least 40 FD points in his last two games and will now face a Bulls team that surprised in Game 1, beating the up-and-coming Celtics by six points. George is an interesting leverage play as a lot of DFS players typically elect to pay up at SF at only one spot (if at all), and he’s $800 FD more expensive than Kawhi, who is red-hot and has an excellent matchup. He has a FantasyLabs projected ownership of five to eight percent on FD, compared to nine to 12 percent for Kawhi. Carmelo Anthony has an ownership projection similar to George’s and is also a nice pivot away from Kawhi. LeBron typically comes with high ownership.
Power Forward
Stud
Apparently Anthony Davis wants none of your Karl-Anthony Towns talk. Brow has certainly reminded us just how dominant he can be when healthy: He followed up his 99.5-point Game 1 FD outing (a site record, by the way) with ‘only’ 80.25 points in Game 2 against Draymond Green and the Warriors. These are just ridiculous numbers. For reference: His $10,800 FD salary has an implied salary expectation of 45.27 points. He’s almost doubled that in his first two games! He has an unreal 42.3 PER and 38.5 usage rate. I would not fade him right now.
Values
Gorgui Dieng was one of the few Timberwolves to play well in Game 1: He put up 37.8 FD points at just a $5,500 salary. Tonight he is just $200 more and boasts a projected ceiling of 41.8 points. He also has a really nice matchup, with a +4.33 Opponent Plus/Minus against the odd Kings frontcourt. He’s projected for 32.1 minutes and owns a +6.51 Projected Plus/Minus.
In the same price range sits Marvin Williams, who has an FD Projected Plus/Minus of +5.75. He’s exceeded value in each of his first two games. He’s projected for only 28.6 minutes but is cheap enough to hit value even in limited time. Both Dieng and Marvin are playable in all formats and have FantasyLabs ownership projections of 13 to 16 percent on FD.
Leverage Plays
Kevin Love has looked incredible through two games this season. Oh, what a championship can do to relieve pressure of fitting into an offense. He looks very comfortable now and has put up nice numbers, scoring 39 and 44.4 FD points in the first two games against solid frontcourts. Tonight he’ll face the struggling Magic and could be a pivot down from Brow or up from the value guys listed above.
Center
Studs
After disappointing in Game 1 — he put up 33.2 FD points against the poor Suns — DeMarcus Cousins bounced back nicely in Game 2, putting up 58.2 points against the tough Spurs defense. Tonight he is projected for 34.6 minutes and a 35.22 usage rate. He’ll match up with Dieng and a Wolves defense that is more potential than reality right now: He has a tasty Opponent Plus/Minus of +6.77. He’s expensive but holds a lot of safety given his high usage rate. He’s actually a value on FD, where he has a 98 percent Bargain Rating and five to eight percent projected ownership.
Value
Sophomore Nikola Jokic has been the analytics darling and favorite of NBA Twitter all offseason, but it was actually teammate Jusuf Nurkic who dominated in Game 1: He put up 39.3 FD points at just a low $4,600 salary. He will split time with Jokic and Kenneth Faried — he’s projected for only 24.7 minutes — but he’s shown he can meet value in the limited time: He has a ridiculous .740 true shooting percentage so far. He will face a poor Portland defense — he has a +3.39 Opponent Plus/Minus — and is a solid GPP value at just $5,100. He’s the second-highest rated FD center in the Phan Model and boasts a 99 percent Bargain Rating.
Leverage Play
Given the guys listed above in the PF and C blurbs, Karl-Anthony Towns is definitely an appropriate leverage play tonight. A lot of people will target Dieng’s value or Boogie’s ceiling, which he impressively demonstrated last game against the Spurs. KAT is $8,700 FD and struggled in his first game, scoring ‘only’ 35.3 points against the Grizzlies. Tonight he has a nice matchup against the Kings: He has a +4.03 Opponent Plus/Minus. He’s projected for 35.1 minutes and has a high ceiling of 62.3 DK points. He has the potential to be the highest-scoring player on any slate, and you can likely get him at reduced ownership given recency bias and the value options available. KAT at low ownership is always a good thing.
Good luck tonight!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
