We have the World Series in Chicago, the first weekend of NBA slates, and NFL Week 8. Is there a more perfect time of year?
Point Guard
Stud
We’re still quite a bit away from making definitive claims about the Warriors and their projected usage distribution. They got crushed on opening night against the Spurs, but it is still important to note that Stephen Curry had 18 shot attempts, including 10 from the 3-point line. He had only four assists — a stat we thought might bump up this year as he takes more of a distributing role — but that number might have more to do with the matchup against the Spurs than with how Curry will function in the offense on a regular basis. The same usage risk is present tonight, but the Warriors are currently implied for a slate-high 115.75 points: There should be enough production to go around against a Pelicans team that ranked 28th on defense last season. His $9,000 salary on FD and nine to 12 percent projected ownership is much lower than that of this next guy . . .
Russell Westbrook, from a DFS perspective, didn’t disappoint in his first game sans Kevin Durant: Against the Philadelphia 76ers, he posted 57.9 FD points in 36 minutes of play. He was very efficient as well, shooting only 21 times and racking up 12 rebounds and nine assists on top of his 32 points. He should keep rolling tonight against a Suns team that ranked 26th on defense last season and just gave up 113 points in a blowout loss to the Kings. The biggest issue with Westbrook is his price and ownership levels: At $12,000 FD, he is a whopping $3,000 more than any other PG, and his 13 to 16 percent projected ownership is tops in the slate as well. He shouldn’t bust, but it’s quite difficult to make a lineup around him.
Values
Dallas PG J.J. Barea currently leads all players in tonight’s slate with an +8.45 DK Projected Plus/Minus. He was expected to play limited minutes behind Deron Williams this season but saw 39 minutes in Dallas’ first game against the Pacers. In that affair, he put up 35 DK points at a low $3,600 salary. Since then, his salary has bumped up to only $3,900 and, while he won’t see 39 minutes — the Mavericks and Pacers went into overtime Wednesday — he should see around 30. At that price point, and going against the fast-paced Rockets, he’s one of the best values on the board tonight.
On FanDuel, the PG with the highest Projected Plus/Minus is Tim Frazier at +7.37. With the Pelicans’ backcourt currently depleted to start the season, Frazier is being asked to play heavy minutes as the primary ball-handler. In Wednesday’s game against the Nuggets, Frazier put up 40.5 FD points in almost 37 minutes of action. Like Barea, he has seen only a small bump in salary ($300). He should be chalky despite the tough matchup against the Warriors: He has a FantasyLabs projected ownership on FD of 13 to 16 percent.
Leverage Play
George Hill should go relatively underowned, given the studs in this slate. In his first game with the Jazz on Tuesday, Hill put up 36.5 DK points in almost 39 minutes of action. The latter stat is the most important: It was unclear how minutes would be distributed among the ball-handlers — Dante Exum, Shelvin Mack, and even Rodney Hood — but it seems that Hill will be the primary facilitator until Gordon Hayward returns from injury. At just $5,500 DK and going against a Lakers team that was dead last in defense last season, Hill is in a great position to benefit from his role.
Shooting Guard
Studs
Point guard James Harden did not disappoint in his first game, putting up 64.1 FD points in 37 minutes of action. He’s always been a great facilitator and showed what he can do in a Mike D’Antoni system: He finished with 17 (!) assists on the night. He’s very expensive at $11,300 on both sites, but he faces a Dallas team that was middle of the road defensively last season and allowed 130 points to the Pacers in their first game. The Rockets plays at a very fast pace, and the Pacers are the fifth-fastest team (through the first game of the season). This game has a current total of 220.5, which is just behind the Pelicans/Warriors’ total of 221. Like Westbrook, Harden is very expensive and should be highly-owned but showed last game that his potential ceiling on a nightly basis is high.
In the midst of huge games from Harden and Anthony Davis, Raptors SG DeMar DeRozan dominated in his first game, putting up 42.3 FD points in 34 minutes of play. He was shockingly efficient, scoring 40 points on just 27 shots. The issue with DeRozan, as you can see, is that he scored 42.3 FD points while having 40 actual points: He doesn’t accumulate many other stats, which severely lowers his floor. He has a tough matchup tonight against the defending champion Cavaliers, but he does come with a low FD projected ownership of five to eight percent.
Value
Any Mario Hezonja truthers out there (I am certainly one of them) wept after seeing him total 14 minutes behind Evan Fournier (39). The latter is clearly the SG option for the Magic right now and for good reason. In his first game, he put up 20 points, two 3-pointers, four rebounds, four assists, two steals, and only one turnover. At just $5,800, he showed a lot of balance. He’s the same price tonight and will face a Detroit team that got crushed by Toronto in its first game on Wednesday. As mentioned above, the Pistons allowed 40 points to DeRozan. Fournier leads all FD SGs with a +6.78 Projected Plus/Minus.
Leverage Play
Rodney Hood is projected for only five to eight percent ownership on FD yet boasts a slate-high 11 Pro Trends and a solid +3.61 Plus/Minus. In the Jazz’s first game, he played nearly 38 minutes and put up 35.9 FD points on 26 real points. Tonight, he faces a Lakers team that was awful defensively last season and allowed 114 points to the Rockets in their first game. Hood has taken on a bigger role in this offense with Hayward out and should see a heavy minute load throughout the next several weeks until he returns. At $6,200 DK and $5,700 FD, he’s an excellent pivot away from the higher-priced guys listed above.
Small Forward
Studs
Again, it will be quite a bit of time before we can make definitive claims about the Warriors. That said, Durant’s efficiency in his first game was encouraging (despite the huge loss to the Spurs): He put up 53 FD points on just 18 total shots. He was able to do a bit of everything, racking up 10 rebounds, four assists, two steals, and two blocks, and he didn’t turn the ball over even once against Kawhi Leonard. Durant will get a much easier matchup tonight against the Pelicans, who last year ranked third-worst on defense. Per our NBA Matchups tool, he will start opposite Solomon Hill, who has allowed opponents to shoot 50 percent from the 3-point line in the past year. Durant should definitely be on your GPP radar.
On his ring ceremony night, LeBron James didn’t disappoint his hometown fans, posting a triple-double (19-11-14) in just 32 minutes of play. The Cavs blew out the Knicks in that game but will get a tougher matchup against a Raptors team that ranked 11th on defense last season and held the Pistons to just 91 points in their first game of the season. Still, LeBron is matchup-proof and could potentially see even a couple more minutes tonight in what should be a tighter game: We currently have him projected for 34.6 minutes and a slate-high 31.6 usage rate. His FD ceiling of 60.4 points is right behind Durant’s (61.1), yet he’s projected to be owned in only five to eight percent of lineups, compared to nine to 12 for Durant.
Values
Magic sophomore Aaron Gordon leads all SFs on FD with a +7.35 Projected Plus/Minus. He didn’t score a ton in his first game of the season — he had only 12 points on five of 11 shooting — but he racked up eight rebounds and four assists in 35 minutes of play. Center Bismack Biyombo will be back tonight after serving a one-game suspension to start the season, which makes the frontcourt rotation harder to predict. Still, Gordon can play both forward positions and shouldn’t see a decrease in playing time: We have him currently projected for 32.3 minutes.
There are two other SFs with Projected Plus/Minus values of +5.00 or higher on FanDuel: Rondae Hollis-Jefferson and TJ Warren. The former really struggled in his first game, scoring only 8.4 FD points in 23.5 minutes of action. Warren played better, putting up 25.5 FD points in 30.4 minutes. We currently have both projected to play around 27 to 28 minutes. They are solid bets to exceed their low salary-based expectations. Warren especially is intriguing: He has a DK Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.81 and a pace differential of +4.0. They’re both in play in guaranteed prize pools.
Leverage Plays
The two highest-rated DK SFs in the Phan Model are currently Tobias Harris and Paul George. Harris was able to perform despite a blowout against the Raptors: He put up 29.75 DK points in 36 minutes of action. We currently have him projected to play a slate-high 34.8 minutes against an Orlando team that allowed 108 points to the decimated Heat roster on Wednesday. George has a very tasty matchup against a Brooklyn team that ranked 29th on defense last season and allowed 122 points to the Celtics on Wednesday. He will matchup against Hollis-Jefferson, who has a lot of defensive potential in the future but has struggled so far in his career:
Both players have low projected ownership, given that Durant and LeBron are in this slate.
Power Forward
Stud
That Anthony Davis guy is pretty good, huh? Brow set the FD record for points in a game with 95.7 in 41 minutes of play. He scored 50 points, had 16 rebounds, five assists, seven steals, and four blocks. The dude is a beast. He put up 34 shots against the Nuggets, and while it’s not likely that he’ll have this extreme usage or production moving forward, it should still be really high, considering the Pelicans are without Jrue Holiday and Tyreke Evans to start the year. He has a really tough matchup against Draymond Green and the Warriors, but he’s put up huge numbers against them before, even in the playoffs. He’s expensive at $10,800 FD, but his 69.5-point projected ceiling is at least 22.4 points higher than any other PF’s.
Values
OKC big man Enes Kanter trails Brow with the second-highest PF Projected Plus/Minus tonight at +5.37 FD. He still isn’t seeing starter-level minutes — he received 24 in their first game — but he has always been a hyper-efficient offensive player. In those 24 minutes in Game 1, he put up 17 points and 12 rebounds — a 35.4-point FD night. Tonight, he will face the Suns, who ranked 26th on defense last year and allowed 0.97 points over salary-based expectations to players with Kanter’s positional splits. He is $5,300 FD and comes with a 98 percent Bargain Rating.
Dirk Nowitzki is hopeful to play Friday, per our NBA News feed. If he does suit up, he’s an excellent value on DK, where he has a $6,000 salary, 11 Pro Trends, a 98 percent Bargain Rating, and a slate-high +4.65 Projected Plus/Minus. We currently have him projected for 32.6 minutes and 25.06 usage. If there’s a time to go heavy on a 38-year-old NBA player, it’s definitely early in the season. In the Mavericks’ first, Dirk put up 44 DK points on 19 shots in 38 minutes.
Leverage Plays
I’m already nauseous just thinking about this paragraph, but Serge Ibaka — the Ibaka who disappointed everyone as a chalky play in Game 1 with only 24.4 FD points in 36 minutes of action — is a heckuva leverage play tonight. Recency bias plus the fact that Biyombo is returning to action and will get minutes along with Nikola Vucevic means that Ibaka will have low ownership. And the low ownership is likely warranted given the risk — but this guy is only $5,500 FD with a 93 percent Bargain Rating and a 41.2-point projected ceiling.
Center
Studs
Andre Drummond was supposed to take a leap into best-center-in-the-league territory this season, but he had disappointing numbers in Game 1: He finished with only 21.2 FD points in 24 minutes of action. However, context is important here and could give you an edge: He took an elbow to the face in the first quarter and was in and out of the locker room afterwards. He was never able to get going, although his 16 points and six rebounds aren’t awful given that situation and minute total. He’ll look to rebound tonight, and the injury shouldn’t bother him. He’ll match up against Vucevic, who allowed 6.8 DK points over salary-based expectations to Cs over the past year, per our NBA Matchups tool. Drummond is projected for only two to four percent FD ownership.
Hassan Whiteside has the highest projected ceiling tonight among centers at 73.2 DK and 68.1 FD points. In his first game as ‘the guy’ for the Miami Heat down low, Whiteside put up 43.3 FD points in nearly 31 minutes of action. He showed his defensive prowess, blocked four shots, and had a nice all-around game, finishing with 18 points and 14 rebounds. Tonight’s matchup is tough — he’ll face a Charlotte team that ranked in the top-10 on defense last season and have maybe-revitalized Roy Hibbert down low to deter shots — but Whiteside has a relatively safe floor given his role.
Values
Toronto big man Jonas Valanciunas currently leads all FD players with an +11.3 Projected Plus/Minus. Fellow center Steven Adams is right behind him at +10.07. They are both way too cheap given their current roles: They’re projected for 33.2 and 32.3 minutes. JV crushed in his first game of the season — now as ‘the guy’ without Biyombo — scoring 45.7 FD points in 35 minutes of action. He had 32 points and 11 rebounds and went 12 of 14 from the foul line. Adams doesn’t see the same usage, but he still impressed: He put up 27.5 FD points at a low $4,700 salary. At $4,800 tonight, he comes with a 99 percent Bargain Rating. JV has the tougher matchup — Cleveland has held centers to 3.95 points below salary-based expectations in the past year — but he’s still in play in tournaments given his role and price.
Leverage Plays
Just $100 cheaper than Adams on FD, Clint Capela is projected for 24.1 minutes and two to four percent ownership. Obviously, that minute total is too low to target in cash games, but even 25 minutes on a fast-paced Rockets team is enough to warrant GPP exposure. He’s an efficient player — especially with Harden in the pick-and-roll — and he nearly double-doubled in his limited Game 1 action with 16 points and nine rebounds. He’s an interesting GPP pivot away from the guys mentioned above.
Good luck tonight!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
