The Week 8 NFL Dashboard
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Patriots at Bills
The Patriots travel to Buffalo this week as 6.5-point favorites over the Bills. This game has the sixth-highest Vegas total of the week at 47.5 points, and the Bills are implied to score just 20.5 points. The Patriots have the second-highest team total of the week and are currently implied for 27 points.
New England Patriots
Writer: Joe Holka
QB – Tom Brady
On the surface, the Bills have been stingy against quarterbacks this year:
But then you look at the talent they have faced:
It’s reasonable to assume Brady, who’s first in completion percentage (75.2 percent), passer rating (132.6), quarterback rating (90.4), yards per attempt (9.9), and fantasy points per drop back (0.66) can do a bit better than the QBs on this list. Brady is in play for both cash games and guaranteed prize pools. Even on the road, Brady has the fifth-highest DK ceiling among QBs. His FantasyLabs ownership projection (in our Player Models) is just five to eight percent in the Millionaire Maker.
RB – LeGarrette Blount
With Brady back, Blount is no longer the centerpiece of this offense. He carries risk in cash games because of his absence in the passing game, but he has great GPP potential because of his multi-touchdown upside as the team’s goal-line back:
Per Bryan Mears’ Market Share Report, Blount has 12 opportunities inside the 10-yard line in his last four games — that’s the second-highest mark in the NFL — and he’s our sixth-highest rated FanDuel RB in our Tournament Model at just five to eight percent projected ownership. The Bills rank only in the middle of the pack in Football Outsiders’ rushing Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
RB – James White
Brady clearly sees White as a top option, and that really matters. White will likely see a full load of pass-down snaps in Week 8 and has reached his salary-based expectations in four straight games — a span in which he’s seen at least five targets per game. Even after scoring three touchdowns in the past two weeks, White could still be under-owned. With two to four percent projected ownership, he has sneaky GPP upside. Even though the Bills have given up the seventh-fewest receptions per game to RBs this season (4.12), White is the ninth-highest rated FD RB in our Tournament Model.
WR – Julian Edelman
Edelman has not shown huge TD upside but remains a huge part of this Patriots passing game, as he has a 24.03 percent target share in his last four games (top-20 in the league). Per our Matchups tool, Edelman is likely to run the majority of his routes against cornerback Nickell Robey-Coleman. Per Pro Football Focus, that is the slate’s 15th-most disadvantageous matchup, so rostering Edelman in cash might be difficult. Per our Trends Tool, players with comparable salaries, target shares, and projected points typically perform slightly above expectation on DK:
Edelman (foot) was limited in practice all week. He’s officially questionable but expected to play.
WR – Chris Hogan
Hogan has just three targets in the past two weeks. However, he is still second on the team in market share of Air Yards (22.48 percent) over the past four games. He isn’t highly-rated in any of our Pro Models, but his explosiveness suggests that he has some sneaky upside for tournaments. He’s very cheap on FD at $5,200 and boasts an 86 percent Bargain Rating in a game in which he is expected to run the majority of his routes against CB Ronald Darby. PFF ranks that matchup as the slate’s 21st-most advantageous.
WR – Danny Amendola
It is highly unlikely that Amendola will repeat his Week 2 multi-touchdown performance anytime soon. He had zero targets last week and just two targets in four straight games before that. He’s a low-end GPP dart with a 2.6-point floor on DK.
TE – Rob Gronkowski
Over the past three weeks, Gronk has been at the top of the TE world:
He appears to have fully recovered from his hamstring injury and is his usual dominant self with Brady back in the lineup. Over the past four games, Gronk leads the Patriots in target share of Air Yards (25.52 percent) — and that includes the Week 4 performance in which Gronk ran just 13 routes. He is essentially matchup-proof (and the Bills are 23rd in pass DVOA against TEs), but it is always tough to pay up for him in cash games. In GPPs, Gronk is all alone in an elite tier with the highest floor and ceiling at the position. But he’s also projected to be owned at 17-20 percent.
TE – Martellus Bennett
Bennett dropped a 6-5-109 stat line against the Bills in Week 4 with Jacoby Brissett under center, and Bennett is still seeing plenty of snaps in New England’s base two-TE set. Bennett has shown a lot of TD upside and is essentially the weekly GPP leverage play against people chasing the Gronk Smash. Bennett currently has the tenth-highest FD TE rating in our Tournament Model with an 88 percent Bargain Rating and an absurd zero to one percent projected ownership against a team that struggles to defend the position.
Bennett (ankle) missed Friday’s practiced and is listed as questionable. He’s expected to play — he’s played through the questionable tag for the last few weeks — but his situation should be monitored.
Buffalo Bills
Writer: Joe Holka
QB – Tyrod Taylor
Taylor’s elite rushing ability is somehow keeping his value afloat even with the lack of weapons he has at his disposal. TyGod is first in rush yards (271), third in rush yards per game (39), fifth in carries per game (5.9), and third in red-zone carries (five) among QBs. His rushing ability raises his floor, but he has limited appeal in guaranteed prize pools and cash games due to the lack of difference makers in this offense. That said, Tyrod has been lights out at home in his career and tends to use his legs a bit more as well:
RB – LeSean McCoy
Per the FantasyLabs News feed, Shady (hamstring) hasn’t practiced all week and is officially listed as doubtful for Week 8. He should be expected not to play.
He attempted to play during the Bills’ Week 7 loss to the Dolphins but was held to just 11 yards on eight carries before he re-aggravated his hamstring and exited the game. You have to think the coaching staff will not make the same mistake twice but even if he’s ultimately able to play he has a tough matchup against a Patriots’ defense that has allowed a touchdown on just 2.99 percent of their opponent’s snaps over the past 12 months — the third-best mark in the league.
RB – Mike Gillislee
Gillislee (foot) has also been limited this week. Unlike McCoy, Gillislee is officially listed as questionable and is expected to run as the lead back against the Patriots’ fifth-ranked rush DVOA. He was expected to have a large role last week with McCoy dealing with a hamstring injury, but Gillislee ended up with just five touches. Still, Gillislee is averaging 6.23 yards per carry this season — the second-best mark among all running backs with at least 20 carries. He’s priced at $3,800 on DraftKings with an 87 percent Bargain Rating, although if McCoy is declared out he could potentially have high ownership. As the starter, he would represent huge value even as an underdog due to the volume of opportunities he’d get in an offense that sees the majority of its offensive yardage come on the ground. He currently has the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus on DK (+5.65).
WR – Robert Woods
We’re three players into this preview, and we still don’t have a healthy option for Tyron to throw to. This could get ugly. Woods (foot) didn’t play in Week 7 but has practiced this week and seems on track to play. He’d been on a roll since Sammy Watkins was placed on injured reserve, posting a +4.37 Plus/Minus with 75 percent Consistency and averaging 11.9 DK points in his four games since Week 2. Still, he’ll need to become more efficient, as his average of 6.5 yards per target ranks 101st among all wide receivers through seven weeks. Per our Matchups Page, Woods could see a lot of Malcolm Butler — PFF’s eighth-highest graded CB this season.
Woods is officially questionable but expected to play, as the team failed to add another receiver to its roster on Saturday.
WR – Marquise Goodwin
Goodwin (concussion) is out for Week 8.
WR – Justin Hunter
Yep. We’re still doing this. Hunter is ‘relevant’ and that says a lot about the current state of the Bills offense. Per Player Profiler, Hunter’s most comparable player is Martavis Bryant. He has a 28.57 percent target share inside the 10-yard line in his past four games but if he doesn’t get into the end zone he doesn’t help you a whole lot, with just seven targets in his four games as a member of this team.
WR – Walt Powell
Powell is expected to run as the No. 3 WR with Goodwin out. Powell has serves as the team’s third receiver in a few games this season. In none of them did he exceed five targets or 30 yards.
TE – Charles Clay
Clay is leading the Bills in target market share (21.82 percent) and target share of Air Yards (22.57 percent) in the past four games. He could easily hit cash value this week. Tyrod has to throw to someone and Clay has been a viable punt play three of the past four weeks. He’s the sixth-highest rated DK TE in the Tournament Model at zero to one percent projected ownership in the Millionaire Maker.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
