The Week 8 NFL Dashboard
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Chiefs at Colts
The Colts will host the Chiefs as 2.5-point underdogs in Week 8. Indianapolis has an implied total of 23.75 points in a game with the second-highest over/under of the week (50). The Chiefs are currently implied for 26.25 points — the third-highest mark on the slate. Let’s take a look at how the rosters will shake out.
Kansas City Chiefs
Writer: Joe Holka
QB – Alex Smith
Alex Smith continues to be Alex Smith, throwing just two combined touchdowns against the awful Raiders and Saints defenses in the past two weeks. That’s actually pretty impressive. Smith has been quite underwhelming this season:
Yet again, Smith is in an amazing spot: He is a large home favorite against a Colts defense ranked 29th in pass DVOA in 2016, per Football Outsiders. He’s currently the second-highest rated quarterback in the Adam Levitan Model on FD. He’s not fun to roster, but the matchup and price suggest he’s someone worth considering at just zero to one percent projected ownership in the Sunday Million.
RB – Spencer Ware
Week 7 was just another week in which Spencer Ware smashed value:
Ware continues to be one of the best DFS plays on the board every week. He has the 13th-highest rushing share in the league over the past four weeks (65.49 percent), is fourth in yards per touch (7.1) this year, and is third in reception yards per game (47.5) in 2016. This is another dream matchup: The Chiefs are large road favorites going against a Colts team that ranks 32nd in rush DVOA this year. He comes in as the second-highest rated player in our Tournament Model on FD; he boasts the sixth-highest projected ceiling (20.5), floor (11.3), and Projected Plus/Minus (+5.09). At projected ownership of just 13 to 16 percent, he’s an excellent play in all formats.
RB – Jamaal Charles
Charles (knee) has been ruled out for Week 8.
RB – Charcandrick West
With Charles out, West is in line to serve as the team’s No. 2 RB. This year he’s yet to see 10 opportunities in a game, and he’s also scoreless. Where there’s a Ware, there’s no West.
WR – Jeremy Maclin
Maclin has been held back by the passing offense this year (read: Alex Smith) and looks visibly frustrated on plays he gets open deep. That said, he is the focal point of this passing game and is seeing the most valuable targets. His market share of Air Yards is 29.75 percent, well ahead of anyone else’s mark on this team.
The data suggests Maclin is a strong GPP play yet again: He’s currently the 10th-highest rated WR in the FD Tournament Model and faces a Colts defense that ranks 23rd at defending opposing WR1s, per DVOA. He currently boasts a 94 percent FD Bargain Rating and is at just two to four percent projected ownership in the Sunday Million. Per our NFL Matchups tool, he could be shadowed by Vontae Davis. Still, WRs at a comparable salary and projected points typically perform above salary-based expectations:
WR – Tyreek Hill and Chris Conley
The Chiefs want to control the ball and establish the run. That’s not good news for either of these high variance wide receivers. Neither sees enough volume to be relied on and it’s tough to imagine Smith supporting more than one WR at the moment. Both have low projected FD floors of 2.7 and 3.6 points, respectively. However, either player is capable of one big play (they represent 38.1 percent of the team’s Air Yards combined) to meet value against this awful Colts defense.
TE – Travis Kelce
Kelce is a key member of the Kansas City passing game. He is tied for fifth in the league in red-zone targets (eight) and leads the team with a 29.6 percent target share in the red zone (40 percent in the last four weeks). He is the overwhelmingly number-one rated player at the position in both the Tournament and Cash Models on FD. He boasts the fifth-highest Projected Plus/Minus (+4.11) and second-best Opponent Plus/Minus (+3.3) on the slate facing a Colts defense ranked dead last in TE DVOA. Kelce is a weekly GPP option and you can get him at only five to eight percent projected ownership in both the Sunday Million and Millionaire Maker.
Indianapolis Colts
Writer: Ian Hartitz
QB – Andrew Luck
Luck has had a great start to the 2016 season, surpassing 300 passing yards in four of his seven games. It wouldn’t be surprising if Luck is able to surpass this threshold for a fifth time against the Chiefs, as he’s historically balled out as a home underdog:
As our Trends tool shows, Luck has posted a +6.95 Plus/Minus with 100 percent Consistency and averaged 26.23 DraftKings points in his two games as a home underdog over the past three seasons. It’s undoubtedly a small sample size, but Luck has played better at Lucas Oil Stadium regardless of whether he’s the favorite or underdog. He’s priced at $6,800 on DK with six Pro Trends but will need to overcome a tough matchup against a Chiefs defense that has allowed 2.2 points below salary-based expectations to quarterbacks over the past 12 months – tied for the fourth-best mark in the league.
RB – Frank Gore
Gore has consistently been featured in the offense this season, as he’s received fewer than 15 carries in a game just once since Week 2. He will need to improve his performance in Lucas Oil Stadium, as he’s been the anti-Drew Brees of running backs over the past two seasons:
Gore hasn’t been terrible at home since joining the Colts, but he’s been way better on the road, where he’s averaged a +5.4 Plus/Minus and 15.06 DK points. He also has a tough matchup against a Chiefs defense that has allowed just three rushing touchdowns this season. Gore is priced at $4,700 on DK and has two to four percent FantasyLabs projected ownership.
RB – Robert Turbin
The Josh Ferguson experiment appears to be over, as he hasn’t touched the ball once over the past two weeks. Turbin is the clear backup, although he had just three touches last week and doesn’t offer any standalone value due to Gore’s featured role in the offense.
WR – T.Y. Hilton
Donte Moncrief returned to practice for the first time since injuring his shoulder during the Colts’ Week 2 loss to the Broncos and is expected to play Sunday. His return is bad news for Hilton, who has historically been a shell of himself with Moncrief on the field:
Hilton has averaged 24.46 PPR points in his seven games with Moncrief sidelined but just 14.15 PPR points with Moncrief in the lineup since 2014. If Moncrief isn’t able to play this week, Hilton figures to continue to be fed double-digit targets per game. He’s priced at $7,800 on FD with a 98 percent Bargain Rating and has seven Pro Trends. Hilton lines up in the slot on over 50 percent of his snaps, so he’ll likely see a lot of Steven Nelson – PFF’s 97th-highest graded cornerback this season.
WR – Donte Moncrief
Moncrief (shoulder) practiced this week and is expected to play for the first time since Week 2. His return would be huge for a Colts offense that has struggled to find a competent No. 2 receiver during his absence. Moncrief has performed very well with Andrew Luck as of late, as he’s averaged a 4.33-47.11-0.67 line in his last nine games with Luck under center. If Moncrief is ready to go for the Colts’ Week 8 matchup against the Chiefs, he could see a lot of Phillip Gaines – PFF’s eighth-worst graded cornerback this season out of 115 eligible cornerbacks.
WR – Phillip Dorsett
After missing last week’s game, Dorsett returned to practice this week. He wasn’t on the team’s final injury report and is expected to play. He has a tough matchup this week, as he could see a lot of Marcus Peters, PFF’s ninth-highest graded cornerback this season. Dorsett is priced at $5,300 on FD and faces a Chiefs defense that has allowed just 0.6 points above salary-based expectations to wide receivers over the past 12 months.
TE – Jack Doyle
Doyle was targeted 10 times last week and ran pass routes on 36 of Luck’s 39 dropbacks. Both marks represent better usage than Dwayne Allen managed during his five-year career. Doyle is now averaging 2.46 fantasy points per target – the third-best mark among all tight ends this season. He’s priced at $4,900 on FD with an 88 percent Bargain Rating and a position-high +6.09 Projected Plus/Minus. Doyle does have a very tough matchup against Eric Berry, PFF’s seventh-highest graded cover safety this season.
Allen (ankle) has been ruled out, so this week will once again be the ‘Doyle show.’
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
