The Week 8 NFL Dashboard
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Vikings at Bears
The Vikings are 5.5-point favorites for their Week 8 matchup against the Bears. It might be a low-scoring affair in Chicago, as this game’s Vegas total of 40.5 points is the lowest mark of Week 8. The Vikings are implied to score 23 points, while the Bears are implied to score just 17.5 points. Let’s take a look at who will be taking the field on Monday night.
Minnesota Vikings
Writer: Ian Hartitz
QB – Sam Bradford
Bradford had his worst game of the season last week, as he was pressured all afternoon by an aggressive Eagles pass rush. The depleted Vikings offensive line has struggled throughout the season: They’ve been graded as the fourth-worst pass-blocking unit in the league by playerprofiler.com. Even if they’re able to keep Bradford more upright this week, it’s hard to get excited about Bradford’s upside:
Since a strong debut in Week 2, Bradford has posted a -0.71 Plus/Minus with 50 percent Consistency and is averaging just 13.55 DraftKings points per game. He’s done a great job at managing the Vikings offense and leading the team to five wins, but he simply hasn’t been a good fantasy quarterback this season. Bradford is minimum-priced on DK and his 3.2-point floor is the lowest mark among all quarterbacks.
RB – Jerick McKinnon
McKinnon (ankle) has been ruled out for Week 8. Get ready for the Asiata Extravaganza.
RB – Matt Asiata
Asiata has averaged 4.23 yards per carry over the past two weeks. This is much better than McKinnon’s average of 2.55 yards per carry, and with McKinnon out Asiata presents great value. He’s not a great player: This season, he’s averaging just 1.6 yards after contact per rush – the eighth-worst mark among all running backs, per PFF. However, Asiata is priced at $3,500 on DK and is going against a Bears defense that has allowed a 50.46 percent rush success rate over the past 12 months – the second-worst mark in the league.
WR – Stefon Diggs
Diggs has cooled off after a hot start to the 2016 season. This is consistent with last season, when he failed to top 70 receiving yards in his final nine games. Diggs has been held under 50 receiving yards and hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 2 and part of the problem could be where he’s being targeted. He had a 12.3-yard aDOT during the first two weeks of the season, but this has decreased to 9.1 yards over the past three games, per PFF. Diggs is priced at $5,600 on DK and will look to rebound against a Bears defense that has allowed the most fantasy points per game to wide receivers this season.
WR – Adam Thielen
Thielen was targeted just five times last week in a game where the Vikings were trailing for the majority of the afternoon. He went off for a 7-127-1 line when Diggs was out with a groin injury but isn’t involved enough in the offense on a weekly basis to warrant serious fantasy consideration when both Diggs and Kyle Rudolph are healthy. Thielen is priced at $3,800 on DK and will likely see a lot of Cre’von LeBlanc, PFF’s 58th-highest graded cornerback this season.
WR – Cordarrelle Patterson
Patterson has scored touchdowns in consecutive games and has had six-plus targets in three consecutive weeks. The problem is that almost all of those targets have come within five yards of the line of scrimmage. Patterson’s 2.2-yard aDOT is the lowest mark among all wide receivers this season and, while he’s shown flashes of his explosive ability, he’s averaging just 7.5 yards per target this season. He’s an intriguing GPP punt play on DK, where his $3,300 price tag comes with a 91 percent Bargain Rating, but his big plays will be almost entirely dependent on his ability to turn a short screen into a long gain (which is hard to do).
Also, Patterson (concussion) has missed practice this week and is in the league’s concussion protocol. He’s officially questionable for Monday’s game.
TE – Kyle Rudolph
Rudolph has cooled off after a strong start to the season, but his usage still suggests that he’s due for more big games. His eight targets per game are the third-most among all tight ends and he’s also getting plenty of fantasy-friendly targets. Rudolph’s 33.3 percent red-zone target share is good for the third-best mark among all tight ends. He’s priced at $3,500 on DK and has a strong +5.42 Projected Plus/Minus for his matchup against a Bears defense that has allowed 1.7 points above salary-based expectations to tight ends over the past 12 months.
Chicago Bears
Writer: Ian Hartitz
QB – Jay Cutler
Cutler miraculously healed from his thumb injury the very week that Brian Hoyer was placed on the Injured Reserve list with a broken forearm. We shouldn’t expect much from Cutler against a Vikings defense that is second in the league in defensive DVOA. He averaged just 16.76 DK points per game last season, good for the 28th-best mark among all quarterbacks. Still, he has proven to be more productive with a healthy Alshon Jeffery:
Per the RotoViz Game Splits App, Cutler has averaged over three additional fantasy points when Jeffery is in the lineup over the past three seasons. Cutler is a very risky play against a tough Vikings defense that has allowed 2.2 points below salary-based expectations to QBs over the past 12 months. He’s priced at $6,500 on DK and is one of just six QBs to have a projected floor under five points.
RB – Jordan Howard
Howard has seemingly lost his once-firm grasp on the Bears’ featured-back role. Over the past four weeks, he’s received 23, 16, 15, and seven carries, while Ka’Deem Carey has received two, one, nine, and 10 carries. With the return of Jeremy Langford likely to come either this week or in Week 10 (after the team’s bye), the Bears’ backfield has running back-by-committee written all over it unless someone is able to emerge from the pack. Howard once seemed like the most likely back to run away with the job, but he’ll need to improve on his putrid average of 2.54 yards per carry over the past two weeks in order to seize the role. He’s priced at $4,400 on DK with five Pro Trends for his matchup against a Vikings defense that has allowed the third-fewest rushing yards per game this season.
RB – Ka’Deem Carey and Jeremy Langford
Langford hasn’t played since injuring his ankle during the Bears’ Week 3 loss to the Cowboys but returned to practice this week and could be ready to go by Sunday. He’s officially questionable.
Coach John Fox said earlier this season that he was disappointed with Langford’s ability to pick up yards after contact. He was averaging just two yards after contact per rush prior to being injured – the 77th-highest mark among all running backs this season, per PFF. Considering both Carey and Howard rank within the top-25 running backs in yards after contact, it wouldn’t be surprising if Langford finds himself on the bench Monday night even if he’s able to suit up.
WR – Alshon Jeffery
Cutler will be under center for the first time since he injured his thumb during the team’s Week 2 loss to the Eagles. Jeffery has really struggled during Cutler’s absence, as he’s posted a -5.23 Plus/Minus with 20 percent Consistency and averaged just 10.98 DraftKings points over the past five weeks. He’s been more involved in the offense as of late, but the return of Cutler isn’t likely to return Jeffery to his status as one of the best fantasy wide receivers in the league. Jeffery has averaged 15.66 PPR points in his 12 career games with Cutler sidelined and 14.75 PPR points with Cutler under center. He’ll have a hard time overcoming his rough start in a tough matchup against a Vikings secondary that includes Terence Newman, Captain Munnerlyn, and Xavier Rhodes – three of PFF’s top-34 cornerbacks this season. Jeffery is priced at $6,800 on FD and has an 83 percent Bargain Rating.
WR – Cameron Meredith
Meredith was targeted just twice last week after averaging 12.5 targets per game the previous two weeks. While the decision to begin targeting Jeffery more often was inevitable, Meredith’s targets could still be closer to 10 than zero most weeks. Cutler targeted Kevin White more than Jeffery through the first two weeks of the season and Meredith’s 73 percent catch rate – the 11th-best mark among all wide receivers – gives Cutler a reliable target for when defenses double Jeffery. Meredith is priced at $5,400 on FD with a 90 percent Bargain Rating and has six FD Pro Trends.
Meredith (shoulder) was limited in practice on Thursday and is questionable, but he’s expected to play.
WR – Eddie Royal
Royal (toe) didn’t play last week and hasn’t practiced this week as he continues to recover from his toe injury. Josh Bellamy filled in for Royal last week and managed to convert his four targets into 32 yards. Neither receiver is a recommended fantasy option this week due to the uncertainty surrounding their targets and the great Vikings secondary.
TE – Zach Miller
Miller’s 12.07 DK points per game rank seventh among all tight ends this season, although he could take a step back now that Cutler will be under center:
Miller has averaged nearly two fewer targets per game with Cutler under center and this has resulted in him averaging just 8.96 PPR points per game. Cutler and Miller had a strong stretch at the end of the 2015 season, but this was at least partially due to Jeffery being out and the Bears having very few viable receiving options. Adding to Miller’s troubles is a tough matchup against Harrison Smith – PFF’s second-highest graded safety through seven weeks. Miller is priced at $3,000 on DK with a 98 percent Bargain Rating and has eight DK Pro Trends.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
