NFL Trend of the Week
Everyone ‘knows’ that we should roster players in games implied by Vegas to have high-scoring teams. This week, there are some high-scoring games on the slate, and the wide receivers in those games look intriguing. Julio Jones anyone?
Let’s use our Trends tool see if (or to what extent) it pays off to roster WRs on teams with high Vegas totals.
Vegas > Total > 24 to 32.5
Setting the Vegas total for a team eliminates all of the teams that are projected to be in low-scoring affairs.
Projections > Proj Plus/Minus > 2 to 9.31
Our Projected Plus/Minus metric is incredibly valuable, as it leverages our industry-leading projections to eliminate players projected to play below their salary-based expectations.
The combination of high Vegas total and solid Projected Plus/Minus yields a group of WRs who are in good spots and expected to capitalize on their opportunities.
Trends > Pro Trends > 4 to 14
Setting the Pro Trend minimum at 4 leaves us with players who have multiple projections in their favor. It essentially eliminates third- and fourth-string WRs and gives a small boost to the cohort’s Plus/Minus.
Current Matches
This trend was made for DraftKings, where we’re able to roster four WRs.
There are some obvious players who matched for this trend, like Mike Evans ($8,100) and A.J. Green ($8,800). You don’t need me (or this trend) to tell you that they’re in good spots. Where this trend can really pay off is in helping us find cheaper WRs to target.
Demaryius Thomas ($6,200) has received some pretty heavy criticism from the fantasy industry, but he has seen 20 targets in his last two games. He’s cheaper than Emmanuel Sanders and has a higher Projected Plus/Minus as well as one more Pro Trend.
Ty Montgomery ($5,300) is also in a prime spot. Randall Cobb was limited in practice this week. He’s questionable and in danger to miss Sunday’s bout against the Falcons. Even if Cobb plays, he could be limited. And Jordy Nelson could see fewer targets, given that he has the tough task of facing Desmond Trufant. All of that could lead to more targets for Montgomery.
A less appealing (though still intriguing) option is Mohamed Sanu ($4,100). He’s been very inconsistent this season, but with an implied team total of 27.75 points and a juicy matchup against the Packers injury-impacted secondary he’s worth a look.
Finally, Adam Humphries ($3,000) is also worth a look in tournaments as a minimum-priced guy in a great situation. After Evans, there’s no established Bucs receiver who’s certain to keep Humphries from getting targets.
