The NFL DFS prime time slates have only two games but massive guaranteed prize pools. Also, they’re just plain fun. This week, here are the games offered in the slate:
That snippet is from our free NFL Vegas dashboard and is current as of 3pm ET Saturday. Keep tabs on the dashboard for updates on the lines.
Quarterback
Adjusted Yards Per Attempt: 8.2, Russell Wilson
Points could be hard to come by this week, as the four defenses playing respectively rank 1st, 3rd, 4th, and 12th according to Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Under these circumstances — and we saw this last week with Andrew Luck in a supposed tough spot against the Texans — it’s sometimes a good idea to choose the players with the most talent when the matchups are all poor. Wilson, even if he hasn’t exhibited it lately, is that guy at QB: In the last 12 months, he leads this QB foursome in yards per attempt, AdjYPA, completion percentage, interception rate, sack rate, and fantasy points per opportunity. The matchup against the Cardinals is a tough one — they rank first overall in pass DVOA — but Wilson, when right, has the talent to beat any defensive scheme and put up fantasy points.
Red-Zone Opportunities Per Game: 5.19, Carson Palmer
Palmer let essentially everyone in the DFS community down last week when he put up only 12.4 FD points against the awful Jets secondary. It was supposed to be a #FunnelGame: The Jets boasts the fifth-ranked rush defense but the absolute worst pass defense in the league, per DVOA. But instead of airing it out as we thought they would, the Cardinals fed the ball to David Johnson. While it’s easy to be upset with Palmer’s results, he didn’t play poorly: He went 23 of 34 for 213 yards, one touchdown, and zero interceptions. The Seahawks are a top-three defense against the pass and the run, and at some point Palmer will have to rely on his talented set of WRs to get the offense moving. Again, this is a tough slate full of tough defenses. Palmer might not be a sexy play this weekend, but he could put up a decent-enough game to keep you in the running in guaranteed prize pools.
Running Back
Projected Plus/Minus (DK): +3.6, Lamar Miller
Miller finally got into the end zone last week — twice! — and had an absolutely stellar game, finishing with 178 all-purpose yards, 6.2 yards per carry, and of course that pair of touchdowns. This week’s matchup against the Broncos will be considerably more difficult, but it is important to note that the way to beat the Broncos is on the ground: Per DVOA, they rank fourth against the pass but a pedestrian 16th against the run. Brock Osweiler is returning ‘home’ to face the defense that bailed him out so often last year. The Texans would be smart to keep riding their talented RB instead of letting Osweiler attack the Broncos’ elite secondary. Miller is the highest-rated RB in the DK Bales Model.
Fantasy Points per Snap: 0.47, David Johnson
There are talented backs in the NFL, such as Le’Veon Bell, Todd Gurley, and Lamar Miller — but DJ is the best in the league. He showed last week that he can succeed despite a bad matchup. I would select him for a Data Dive writeup even if he were facing an All-Pro defensive line at every spot. The Seahawks are certainly a brutal matchup for all positions: They rank third against the pass and second against the run this season. And the last time he had fewer than 100 all-purpose yards in a game — seven games ago, which was last year — he was playing against the Seahawks. However, he received only 11 carries in that game. He’s received 49 in the last two weeks and has added 12 targets as well. The Cardinals could struggle against this Seattle defense, but if there is a player who can beat them it’s DJ.
Wide Receiver
Target Market Share, Last 4: Emmanuel Sanders, 27.89 percent
If you haven’t noticed by now, Sanders is the WR1 in Denver:
In the last four games, Sanders is actually seventh in the NFL among skill-position players in target market share (per the Market Share Report). Further, he leads the Broncos in Air Yards (33.89 percent) and targets inside the 10-yard line (four). Finally, he leads all WRs in this slate in fantasy points per snap (0.28). Given his data this year, he should arguably be the highest-salaried WR in this slate, yet at $6,700 he’s cheaper than DeAndre Hopkins ($7,900), Demaryius Thomas ($7,300), Larry Fitzgerald ($7,100), Doug Baldwin ($7,100), and Will Fuller ($6,800). A talented WR whom everyone seems to undervalue is hard to pass up.
Projected Plus/Minus (FD): +2.1, Larry Fitzgerald
If there’s a way to beat this amazing Seattle defense, it’s in the middle of the field. They currently rank first overall in DVOA, third against the pass, and second against the run, but a poor 24th at defending the middle of the field. That sets up nicely for Fitzgerald, who runs the majority of his routes in the slot and has led the Cardinals in target share the last two weeks at 25.71 and 29.63 percent. While Fitzgerald’s fellow WRs have talent and can explode for big games, Palmer has consistently shown that he trusts Fitz the most on a weekly basis.
None of the Seahawks CBs are pushovers, but at least in the slot Fitz will avoid Richard Sherman and DeShawn Shead, PFF’s fifth-ranked corner in 2016.
Tight End
Projected Ceiling (DK): 16.2, Jimmy Graham
Graham has the worst matchup in the league for tight ends: He has to face Cardinals stud safety Tryann Mathieu, who is a big reason why the Cardinals are the best team in the NFL defending TEs, per DVOA. So why are we talking about Graham? Well, mostly because of volume. In the past three games, he’s put up 302 yards and a touchdown on 26 targets. There’s a chance that Mathieu could do his thing and severely limit Graham — and Graham could still be the highest-scoring TE in the slate. However, price is an issue: No other tight end is more than $2,700 on DK and Graham sits at $5,800. For that reason, we’ll talk about one more guy . . .
Fantasy Points per Snap, Last Month: 0.29, C.J. Fiedorowicz
Fiedorowicz has now exceeded salary-based expectations in three straight games and was second among Houston pass-catchers in targets last week with seven. He caught six of them for 85 yards and a touchdown — a 17.5-point FD outing at just $5,100. He now has 20 targets in his last three games, which is a solid number considering that the other teams in this slate (excluding Seattle, of course) simply don’t use their TEs. For reference, Cardinals TE Darren Fells had one target for eight yards last week and Denver TE Virgil Green had four targets for 21 yards last Thursday. Those guys, plus C.J.’s less-targeted teammate Ryan Griffin, are your only options at TE. Those 20 targets sound pretty darn good now, huh?
Good luck!
