The Week 7 NFL Dashboard
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Raiders at Jaguars
The Raiders travel to Jacksonville as slight road underdogs (+1.5) for a game with the third-highest Vegas total of the week (48.5). The Jaguars are implied to score 25 points and the Raiders just 23.5 in a game that could easily shoot out.
Oakland Raiders
Writer: Joe Holka
QB – Derek Carr
This isn’t an easy matchup as a road underdog for Carr: He’s facing a Jaguars defense that ranks eighth against the pass this season, per Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Carr has been solid so far this year: He ranks eighth in fantasy points per game (18.8), has the fourth-most touchdown passes (12), and has completed 66.5 percent (12th in the NFL) of his throws. He is a reasonable GPP flyer at only two to four percent projected ownership in the DK Millionaire Maker. However, there is definitely risk, as the Jaguars have allowed 240-plus passing yards just once this year and thus Carr is a long shot to hit the all-important 300-yard bonus.
RB – Latavius Murray
Murray (toe) is officially questionable but expected to return to action in Week 7.
Even while healthy, Murray’s role has been nowhere near the 20-plus touches he saw in 2015; he didn’t receive over 15 carries in a single game during the first four weeks of the season. He was very reliant on touchdowns before he got injured (34.95 percent of his total DK points) and, even at $4,400 on DraftKings, this is a risky backfield to target in DFS. The Jags RBs face a tough matchup this week against a talented Jaguars defense headlined by Malik Jackson — PFF’s 10th-highest graded interior defender of 2016.
RB – DeAndre Washington, Jalen Richard, and Jamize Olawale
With Murray likely back in Week 7, this backfield becomes too crowded to use in DFS with any confidence. Could someone hit value? Sure. But given the workload split, none of these RBs has a floor high enough for cash games or a ceiling high enough for tournaments.
WR – Amari Cooper
To say Cooper has really turned it on in the past two weeks would be an understatement:
He owns the sixth-largest target market share in the league (28.17 percent) in his past four games and is also leading the team in market share of Air Yards (MS Air) at 40.81 percent (seventh in the NFL). Per our Matchups tool, Cooper will likely be shadowed by Jalen Ramsey, who is PFF’s 59th-ranked CB in 2016. Cooper will be a popular play this week at 17 to 20 percent projected ownership. He is currently the eighth-highest rated WR in our Tournament Model on FD, where he holds a 97 percent Bargain Rating.
WR – Michael Crabtree
While Cooper’s production has been on the rise, Crabtree’s target market share seems to be going the other way:
Per our Matchups tool, Crabtree will face Prince Amukamara — PFF’s 14th-rated cornerback — on the majority of his snaps this week. Also, per our Trends tool, road underdog WRs on DK with similar salaries and point projections typically perform 1.43 points below salary-based expectations and hold a 46.2 percent Consistency. For those reasons, Crabtree is a GPP-only play in Week 7; he has five to eight percent FantasyLabs projected ownership in the DK Millionaire Maker.
WR – Seth Roberts
It is clear that Carr trusts Roberts in the area of the field that matters the most for DFS purposes, as he leads the team with six targets inside the 20-yard line. Roberts has a very winnable matchup against Davon House and is currently the 11th-rated wide receiver in our Tournament Model on DK, where he has a 97 percent Bargain Rating.
TE – Clive Walford
Walford has had a limited impact through six weeks and things won’t get easier against a Jaguars defense that is much improved and currently holding TEs to 1.22 points below salary-based expectations and 33.3 percent Consistency this season. They currently rank fifth against TEs so far this year, per DVOA. There are likely better TE punt options for Week 7.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Writer: Ian Hartitz
QB – Blake Bortles
Bortles ranks just 13th among all quarterbacks in average DK points per game through six weeks after finishing last season ranked fifth. The biggest difference has been his newfound inaccuracy on passes 20-plus yards downfield. Bortles ranked eighth among all QBs last season with a 41.8 percent deep-ball percentage, but this has fallen all the way to 22.7 percent in 2016 – the third-worst mark among all QBs, per playerprofiler.com. Despite his struggles this season, Bortles has a chance to get back on track in a matchup that he has historically thrived in:
In four games as a 3.5-point favorite or less at home, Bortles has posted a +7.85 Plus/Minus with 75 percent Consistency and averaged 23.63 DK points. He’s priced at $6,200 on DK with a +5.29 Projected Plus/Minus for his matchup against a Raiders defense that has allowed a league-high 8.9 yards per attempt this season.
RB – T.J. Yeldon
Yeldon had a season-low seven touches during the Jaguars’ Week 6 win over the Bears. He’ll continue to carry a decent floor as long as he’s averaging 3.8 receptions per game, but it’s hard to expect much out of him as long as Ivory is getting the majority of the team’s carries and all of the goal-line carries. Yeldon is priced at $4,100 on DK with a 90 percent Bargain Rating and faces a Raiders defensive line that is led by Stacy McGee – PFF’s 16th-highest rated interior defender this season.
RB – Chris Ivory
Ivory is now averaging an awful 2.4 yards per carry this season. He did score a goal-line touchdown last week but will need to improve his efficiency before he can be counted on as a fantasy option. With that said, he has historically performed well as a small favorite at home, just like his quarterback:
Ivory will need to prove that he’s the same caliber running back in Jacksonville in order to meet his past success, but he’s posted a +5.81 Plus/Minus with 100 percent Consistency and has averaged 15.88 DK points in his five games as a small favorite at home over the past three seasons. He’s performed better throughout his career when relied upon as the lead back and this is a week that sets up for a favorable game flow for him to get plenty of touches. Ivory is priced at $3,400 on DK with an 87 percent Bargain Rating and faces a Raiders defense that has allowed 2.6 points above salary-based expectations to running backs over the past 12 months.
WR – Allen Robinson
A-Rob had just two games in 2015 with zero touchdowns and fewer than 80 receiving yards. This season, he already has three such games. The biggest change for Robinson has been his newfound brutal efficiency. After averaging 9.3 yards per target in 2015, he’s down to 6.1 yards per target through six weeks. It won’t be easy for Robinson to break out of his slump against cornerbacks David Amerson and Sean Smith, PFF’s sixth- and 21st-highest graded corners this season, respectively. Robinson is priced at $8,400 on FanDuel and has the second-lowest projected floor of any receiver priced over $8,000 on FD.
WR – Allen Hurns
Hurns was limited in practice Wednesday with a shoulder injury but is expected to be ready to go for the Jaguars’ Week 7 matchup against the Raiders. He led the team with 11 targets and 74 receiving yards last week. Hurns is clearly the Jaguars’ No. 2 receiver, but he’s been more efficient than Allen Robinson through six weeks. Hurns has averaged 7.9 yards per target, compared to just 6.1 yards per target for A-Rob. Hurns spends about 60 percent of his snaps in the slot, so he should be able to avoid the Raiders’ top-two cornerbacks and instead face off against D.J. Hayden – PFF’s 70th-highest graded cornerback this season. He is priced at $6,000 on FD with an 80 percent Bargain Rating and has seven FD Pro Trends.
WR – Marqise Lee
Lee caught all six of his targets in Week 6 for 61 yards. He’s been a consistently average receiver this season, as his 1.5 fantasy points and 7.7 yards per target each rank outside the top-50 marks among all wide receivers. Lee is priced at $4,500 on FanDuel and has a 3.7-point projected floor.
TE – Julius Thomas
It’s Week 7 and Thomas has still not been targeted in the red zone. Backup tight end Marcedes Lewis has two red-zone targets this season. Thomas converted 11 of his 15 targets inside the 10-yard line into touchdowns during the 2013 and 2014 seasons with Peyton Manning but simply hasn’t been given an opportunity to succeed thus far in Jacksonville. He’s priced at $5,500 on FD with an 85 percent Bargain Rating and has seven FD Pro Trends. If there was ever a week for Thomas to get a chance to score a red-zone touchdown, it is this week against a Raiders defense that has allowed 4.7 red-zone attempts per game this season – the second-most in the league.
Thomas (ankle) is officially questionable. He was limited in Thursday’s practice. If he’s unable to play, then Marcedes Lewis would serve as the primary pass-catching TE.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
