The Week 7 NFL Dashboard
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Vikings at Eagles
The Vikings will travel to Philadelphia as 2.5-point favorites for their matchup against the Eagles. Sam Bradford and company are currently implied to score 21.25 points, whereas the Eagles are implied to score only 18.75 points – the third-lowest mark of Week 7. Let’s take a look at who will be taking the field Sunday afternoon.
Minnesota Vikings
Writer: Ian Hartitz
QB – Sam Bradford
Bradford has done a lot of good things during his four starts with the Vikings. He’s completed 53.8 percent of his deep-ball attempts and 71.43 percent of his red-zone attempts – the sixth- and fourth-best marks among all quarterbacks this season, respectively. The problem for Bradford has been the Vikings’ ball-control offense. He ranks just 28th and 29th in deep-ball and red-zone attempts this season. Even though Bradford is playing well, his consistent lack of fantasy-friendly passing opportunities per game will continue to limit his upside as a DFS option. He’s priced at $5,100 on DraftKings and his 3.3-point projected floor is the third-lowest mark among all quarterbacks. Bradford will face an Eagles defense that has allowed the fourth-fewest passing yards per game this season.
RB – Jerick McKinnon
The common narrative for McKinnon this season has been that he’s great between the 20-yard lines but gets vultured by Matt Asiata as soon as the Vikings get into scoring position. This simply hasn’t been the case through six weeks. McKinnon has nine carries inside the red zone, compared to just five for Asiata. Things do even out closer to the goal line, as both running backs have had two carries inside the five-yard line this season. McKinnon still has plenty of issues – he’s averaged 3.1 yards per touch, for example – but red-zone opportunity hasn’t been a problem thus far. He’s priced at $4,300 on DK with a 90 percent Bargain Rating and has a great matchup against an Eagles defense that has allowed 5.3 points above salary-based expectations to RBs over the past 12 months – by far the worst mark in the league.
RB – Matt Asiata
Asiata should continue to be involved in the offense as he’s been the better “non-running” back on the Vikings this season. He ranks ninth among all running backs in pass blocking, per PFF, and has also graded out higher than McKinnon as a receiver. He’s averaged 8.66 carries per game since Adrian Peterson went down and this should be the expectation for the time being. Asiata is priced at $3,500 on DK and has a +2.41 Projected Plus/Minus. He’ll face an Eagles defensive line that will be without Bennie Logan – PFF’s 29th-highest graded interior defender against the run this season.
WR – Stefon Diggs
Diggs returned to practice Wednesday after missing the Vikings’ Week 5 win over the Texans with a groin injury. He is expected to be ready to go for Sunday. Diggs hasn’t done much since his hot start to the season, posting a -3.41 Plus/Minus and averaging just 8.8 DK points since Week 2. He hasn’t performed poorly, but he may be closer to a top-20 option than the top-five one he was earlier in the season. Diggs is averaging 10.9 yards and two fantasy points per target this season – both top-21 marks among all wide receivers. He’s priced at $6,000 on DraftKings and could see a lot of cornerback Leodis McKelvin, who allowed just 47.2 percent of passes thrown his way to be completed last season – the second-best mark in the league.
WR – Adam Thielen
Thielen was the Vikings’ go-to receiver with Diggs out of the lineup in Week 5. Thielen responded with his best game of the season, converting his eight targets into seven receptions for 127 yards and a touchdown. The Vikings don’t pass enough to make him anything more than a low-priced GPP play if Diggs is healthy, but he’s a great option if Diggs were to miss additional time; Thielen has averaged 2.13 fantasy points per target through six weeks – the 11th-highest mark among all wide receivers. He’s priced at $3,700 on DraftKings with a 73 percent Bargain Rating, although his two to four percent FantasyLabs projected ownership is higher than similarly-priced receivers Kendall Wright and Tyler Lockett.
WR – Cordarrelle Patterson
Patterson has had six targets in consecutive games but hasn’t surpassed 40 yards in a single game this season. Still, he has the speed to take a short screen the distance and is a great punt play in GPPs at $3,200 on DK that you can pair with the Vikings D/ST to get #doublepoints in the event he returns a kick to the house.
TE – Kyle Rudolph
Rudolph came crashing back to earth in Week 5, gaining a season-low 15 receiving yards and snapping his three-game touchdown streak. Still, he’s one of the most-frequently targeted tight ends in the league and has four more red-zone targets than any other Vikings receiver. Rudolph has a nice matchup this week against an Eagles defense that has allowed 3.2 points above salary-based expectations to tight ends over the past 12 months. He’s priced at $3,500 on DK and has seven Pro Trends.
Philadelphia Eagles
Writer: Kelly McCann
QB – Carson Wentz
The Vikings have allowed the fourth-fewest passing yards (1,194), second-fewest passing touchdowns (four), and seventh-fewest DraftKings points per game (14.8) to quarterbacks this season. They have also intercepted seven passes (fourth-most) and boast the second-ranked pass rush in the NFL (per Football Outsiders). They are a brutal matchup for QBs. Per our Trends tool, the Vikings have held opposing QBs to a -3.03 DK Plus/Minus in 2016. Wentz is a rookie coming off his worst game as a pro (which was also his first game without his best offensive lineman in Lane Johnson). He is reserved for the most contrarian guaranteed prize pool players this week.
RB – Ryan Mathews
Coach Doug Pederson is starting to embrace Bill Belichick when it comes to running back usage. Despite averaging 6.7 yards per carry last week, Mathews was on the field for just 11 of the Eagles’ 52 offensive snaps. Darren Sproles led the team with 23 snaps and both Wendell Smallwood and Kenjon Barner saw nearly as many snaps as Mathews. During the past four weeks, three different Eagles RBs (Mathews, Sproles, and Smallwood) have gotten at least a 22 percent share of carries; no RB has gotten more than 29.81 percent. This has become an unpredictable multi-headed RB committee. Mathews has a 75 percent Bargain Rating on DK but has a projected ceiling of just 9.3 points.
RB – Darren Sproles
Even with increased snap counts, Sproles has averaged nine touches (carries and targets) per game in the past four games; his usage is too erratic to trust. Minnesota ranks fourth against the run this season (per FO) and has allowed just 17.4 FanDuel points per game to RBs (seventh-fewest). If you want to roster him, note he has an 86 percent Bargain Rating on FanDuel. While you’re at it, pair him with a sneaky Philadelphia D/ST: Per our Trends tool, they’ve averaged 14 FD points per game and boast a +6.35 Plus/Minus at home this season.
WR – Jordan Matthews
The Vikings have the second-best pass defense in the NFL (per FO). They have allowed the third-fewest receptions (59), fewest yards (627), and fewest touchdowns (two) to wide receivers this season. Per our Matchups tool, Matthews will see a lot of Captain Munnerlyn — an effective slot corner with a 78.4 grade from Pro Football Focus. Matthews is averaging 5.75 targets per game in his last four games (19.49 percent target share), which is nowhere near the volume he saw in the first three games of the season. You shouldn’t force Matthews into your lineup against the Vikings this week.
WR – Nelson Agholor
Agholor has averaged three catches for 31 yards and zero touchdowns in his last four games. He is one of the lowest-rated starting wide receivers in Adam Levitan’s Player Model for FD. Per our Trends tool, wide receivers with comparable salaries and projected floors have previously produced a very modest +0.56 Plus/Minus on FanDuel with 42.9 percent Consistency.
WR – Dorial Green-Beckham
Green-Beckham has now seen exactly four targets in four straight games but still has not eclipsed 43 receiving yards in a game this season. His 13.56 percent target share during that time ranks third on the Eagles. He played on 42 of the Eagles’ 52 offensive snaps last week; his opportunity is increasing. He’s risky as usual, but he does come with zero to one percent FantasyLabs projected ownership.
TE – Zach Ertz
Ertz has received just three targets in two straight games since returning from a rib injury. However, the Vikings have allowed 5.2 catches per game to tight ends this season. Ertz has an 83 percent Bargain Rating on FD this week and FantasyLabs projected ownership of less than two percent in FD’s Sunday Million.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
