The Week 6 NFL Dashboard
For the rest of our positional breakdowns and team previews, visit our NFL dashboard.
Rams at Lions
This matchup currently has a Vegas total of 44 points, the second-lowest mark of Week 6. The Rams travel to Detroit as three-point dogs and are implied to score 20.5 points. The Lions are implied for 23.5 points.
Los Angeles Rams
Writer: Bryan Mears
QB – Case Keenum
The good news is that Keenum has a chance at being not the worst QB in his division this week. The bad news is that he still isn’t very intriguing for DFS purposes. By all accounts, if there were ever a week to roster Keenum, it would be this week: He faces a Lions defense that ranks dead last in the NFL per Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Detroit has allowed QBs to score 6.8 points over salary-based expectations on DK, and those QBs have hit value in all five games. Further, Keenum is still the minimum $5,000 on DK. Given those positive indicators, it is truly impressive that he still owns the second-lowest projected floor (4.1 points) and is a bottom-six QB in the Bales Player Model.
RB – Todd Gurley
Gurley was able to hit his salary-based expectation on DK last week with 18.8 fantasy points, but it still wasn’t the impressive outing we were expecting from Gurley after a great 2015 rookie campaign. He posted 3.1 yards per carry in Week 5, tying Week 3 as his most (non)efficient of the season. That likely won’t drastically change this season; the Rams have the second-worst offensive line in the league, per PFF. Still, Gurley is seeing incredible volume: He’s owned 80 percent of the Rams’ rushes in their last four games, which is the second-highest mark of all RBs in the league. Further, he’s also second in the league (among all offensive players) with 10 touches inside the 10-yard line. The Lions rank 28th against the run, per DVOA. Gurley doesn’t rate highly in our Player Models on account of his poor efficiency, but this is certainly an intriguing GPP spot, especially at just two to four percent FantasyLabs projected ownership on both sites.
RB – Benny Cunningham
Cunningham is set to return in Week 6, which is important to note for Gurley enthusiasts. Gurley has received 10 targets in the past two games along with his 42 carries. Cunningham could steal a couple targets away this week, and given the inefficiency of this offense any loss of volume is significant.
WR – Tavon Austin
Our own John Proctor highlighted Tavon in this week’s WR/CB Matchups column, as he will face off against Lions slot cornerback Quandre Diggs, who is PFF’s 106th-graded CB out of 116 qualifiers. People love to bash Tavon, but the volume is still there: He’s owned 28.45 percent of the Rams’ targets and 28.84 percent of their Air Yards in the last four games. He posted a dud in Week 4 versus the Cardinals (2.8 DK points) but posted 21.4 and 15.5 points in Weeks 3 and 5, respectively. His price still hasn’t budged: He’s $3,900 on DK. That’s ridiculously low for a guy getting nearly double-digit opportunities per game; he’s currently the second-highest rated WR in the DK Bales Model. He has a +6.2 Projected Plus/Minus and comes with only two to four percent FantasyLabs projected ownership. Tavon is going to win someone a lot of money at some point this season.
WR – Kenny Britt
While Austin has been up and down, Britt has been consistent:
He has caught nine of his 10 targets in the last two weeks for 157 yards. Detroit ranks dead last against supplementary WRs this season, per DVOA. Britt is just $3,700 on DK and owns a +3.2 Projected Plus/Minus along with a 95 percent Bargain Rating. His projected ceiling of 15.5 points comes with zero to one percent FantasyLabs projected ownership. Against this Detroit secondary, it’s definitely worth it to take some GPP shots with these Rams WRs.
WR – Brian Quick
Quick secured three of his four targets last week for 51 yards. He’s averaging a very high 24.7 yards per reception in the last three weeks and has owned 24.11 percent of the Rams’ Air Yards in the last four. His stats have been a little inflated by his three touchdowns in that time frame, but it highlights his boom-or-bust potential. If you were going to roster Quick, it would be this week against Detroit . . . if he plays.
Quick (calf) was added to the Injury Report on Friday, and late-week injuries are a concern. He’s officially listed as questionable, and his situation should be monitored.
TE – Lance Kendricks
After seeing seven targets in Week 4, Kendricks only got three last week against the Bills. This is definitely a juicy matchup: The Lions have given up an NFL-worst 4.6 points over salary-based expectations to TEs on DK in the past year. He’s cheap at $2,700, and he’s owned 17.24 percent of the Rams’ targets in the past four weeks, but this is certainly a risky play.
Lions
Writer: Ian Hartitz
QB – Matthew Stafford
Stafford has now thrown for three touchdowns in three of his five games this season. You could make the argument that he’s actually been better without Megatron, as he’s projected to surpass his yardage total from 2015 and is still averaging two touchdown passes per game. He has a great chance to keep his early success rolling this week as he’s historically thrived in similar matchups:
As our Trends tool shows, Stafford has posted a +7.41 Plus/Minus with 85.7 percent Consistency and averaged 23.37 DraftKings points in his seven games over the past three seasons with a similar implied total at home. He’s cheaper on DK this week, where his $6,200 price tag comes with an 88 percent Bargain Rating and a +4.4 Projected Plus/Minus. Stafford will have to deal with a Rams’ defense that has done a great job at limiting opposing quarterbacks over the past 12 months, allowing 1.3 points below salary-based expectations to the position.
RB – Theo Riddick
Riddick (ankle) has been ruled out for Week 6.
RB – Justin Forsett
Forsett was signed this week and could immediately slot in as the team’s early-down back, as Dwayne Washington (questionable) is still dealing with knee and ankle sprains and Zach Zenner is fresh off of rushing for nine yards on seven carries in Week 5. While Forsett’s Twitter account is maybe the best thing on the internet, his average yards per carry is not. In his 13 games since averaging 5.2 yards per rush in 2014, he’s averaged just 4.09 yards per rush and scored two touchdowns. Forsett is a very risky play this week, considering that he just joined the team on Tuesday and could be on a snap count.
WR – Marvin Jones
Jones’ 19.98 DK points per game ranks sixth among all wide receivers this season. While his ascension as one of the league’s top WRs has come as a surprise to many, he’s been playing great his entire career when given a featured role in the offense:
In 12 games with eight or more targets Jones has averaged a 5.75/86.5/.83 line. He’ll look to continue this dominance against a Rams secondary that will be without Trumaine Johnson, Pro Football Focus’ 29th-ranked cornerback. Jones is priced at $7,700 on FD with a 92 percent Bargain Rating and has eight FD Pro Trends.
WR – Golden Tate
It appears that the Lions’ idea for getting Tate more involved in the offense was to give him three carries. That didn’t work, as he’s now gone five consecutive games without gaining 50 total yards for the first time since joining the Lions. Tate’s 1.4 air yards per target ranks outside the top 100 rates among all wide receivers, meaning his lack of production hasn’t been due to bad luck. He’s priced at $6,400 on FD and has a tough matchup against Rams slot cornerback Lamarcus Joyner, PFF’s 17th-ranked cornerback.
WR – Anquan Boldin
Boldin was expected to see a larger role in the offense last week with Eric Ebron out. Instead, he converted his four targets into 48 yards. He doesn’t have much upside in an offense that utilizes Jones as the downfield receiver. As Boldin is dealing with an ankle injury that forced him to miss practice Wednesday, he’s not a recommended fantasy option against a strong Rams secondary that is allowing just 6.5 yards per attempt this season.
Boldin (ankle) is questionable but expected to play.
TE – Cole Wick
Eric Ebron (knee, ankle) is out for Week 6, as he was for Week 5. Starting in his place will be Wick, who wasn’t targeted last week and shouldn’t be considered a fantasy option. Plus “Cole Wick” sounds like the name of a Tom Cruise character.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
