Correlations are really important in DFS — so much so, in fact, that we created an NFL Stacking tool that can help you identify the best stacks of the week. Let’s mess around with the Stacking tool and see what DraftKings and FanDuel stacks we can find for Week 6 (via our Bales Player Model).
Note: The following stacks were generated for the 1:00pm Sunday main slate.
QB-WR (DK): Alex Smith-Jeremy Maclin
Smith is largely thought of as a game-manager, but through four games in 2016 he’s third in the NFL among 48 qualified QBs in pass attempts per game (42). Just last week he attempted 50 passes against the Steelers and this week finds himself in a matchup against the Oakland Raiders that boasts the third-highest total (47) on the week. Before even thinking about matchup, that volume alone is probably worth more than $5,700 of salary; our Models currently show him with a +4.9 Projected Plus/Minus on DK, which is the third-highest among QBs.
And on the matchups note, the Raiders currently own the fourth-worst pass defense in the NFL, per Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) metric. They rank 25th and are allowing 97.6 yards per game to WR1s, which leads us to Maclin. He saw his targets dip in Week 4 — he received only 16.33 percent of the Chiefs’ targets — but it was a tough matchup and he’s now coming off a bye against a poor pass defense. He owns 36.07 percent of KC’s Air Yards and could have a huge week at only zero to one percent FantasyLabs projected ownership.
QB-TE (FD): Cam Newton-Greg Olsen
Per our NFL News feed, Cam is on track to play in Week 6 against a Saints team that ranks 26th versus the pass and 30th against the run in 2016. Further, he’s playing in the Superdome, which is essentially the Coors Field of the NFL:
Cam is currently the highest-rated QB in the FD Bales Model by a wide margin. Of course, it will come with the highest projected ownership, which is currently at 13 to 16 percent in the FD Sunday Million. Most people will look to pair Cam with Kelvin Benjamin, but a different route could be to roll with Olsen instead (or perhaps with Kelvin as a three-man stack). Olsen is coming off three games with double-digit targets, including this past week’s Monday night game in which he secured nine of his 13 targets for 181 yards. And that was with Derek Anderson. The Panthers hold a lot of upside in Week 6.
RB-D/ST (DK): Le’Veon Bell-Pittsburgh D/ST
Despite DeAngelo Williams‘ excellent play during Bell’s absence, there’s no doubt about who owns this backfield when both are available.
Bell owned 83.33 percent of the Steelers’ rushes in Week 5 and also received 11 targets. I said it in some article last week and it’s still true: Bell is essentially a RB1 and a WR1 in the same player in terms of talent and volume. At only $7,900 on DraftKings — for reference, his teammate, Antonio Brown, is $10,000 — he’s the uber chalk of the week. He has a ridiculously-high +10.3 Projected Plus/Minus, holds the most Pro Trends (10), and has a projected ceiling nearly eight points higher than any other RB in the main slate.
He’ll be highly-owned (26 to 30 percent), but perhaps you can get a unique lineup with him by pairing him with his own D/ST (projected ownership of two to four percent). They’ve been sneaky good on defense this year: Take away the game in which they allowed 34 points to the Eagles, and they haven’t allowed more than 16 points in any other week. They’re facing a Dolphins team that will likely trail — they are 7.5-point dogs — and rank as the third-worst passing offense in the league this season. That’s a recipe for a big week.
QB-RB-WR (FD): Drew Brees-Mark Ingram-Brandin Cooks
On the other side of the Coors Field game Superdome affair sits Brees and company. We know his ridiculous home/road splits already, but one more time:
The issue with Brees, which was sharply brought up by Kevin “TheSportsGeek” on this week’s Daily Fantasy Flex podcast, is that it has been nearly impossible to correctly stack him with a pass catcher. A lot of teams have a very easy WR1 or TE1 to stack with; Brees spreads it around:
Still, there’s a lot of upside here and Cooks should actually go underowned in this game. Teammate Willie Snead is the shiny new toy in daily fantasy football and is projected to have ownership between 13 and 16 percent. Cooks, on the other hand, has a higher ceiling, higher Projected Plus/Minus, and is projected to be owned in only five to eight percent of lineups. He’s the superior GPP leverage play. Ingram is an interesting addition: He has a high rating in the Bales Model but faces a Panthers team that ranks sixth against the run this season. Still, Ingram should see quite a bit of volume in both the run and pass game.
QB-RB-WR-WR (DK): Blake Bortles-T.J. Yeldon-Allen Hurns-Allen Robinson
The Jags haven’t been discussed much this week despite their matchup against a Bears defense that has allowed at least 23 points in four of their five games. Bortles is super cheap this week ($6,300) and is coming off a bye and a Week 4 game in which he scored 25.9 DK points in London. He’s currently the fourth-highest rated DK QB in the Bales Model. Unlike Brees, Bortles’ buddies are easy to find: Robinson, Hurns, and Yeldon combine to own 58.33 percent of his targets. A-Rob in particular is an intriguing play: He’s owned 42.18 percent of the Jags’ Air Yards in 2016. He has 21 targets and three touchdowns in his past two games. The yardage hasn’t been there — he’s posted 112 receiving yards in that span — but given his MS Air numbers, those could come in bunches.
Good luck!
