NFL Team Defense
Everyone wants to find an edge in daily fantasy sports. No data point is too small or insignificant if it can help us win more frequently.
Most people when looking for an NFL DFS edge will focus the vast majority of their attention on the skill positions. But what about team defense? Is there an edge to be found with DST?
DST is a position that can afford an edge in large-field tournaments. Big scores come from defensive touchdowns, interceptions, and sacks. We know these are much more valuable than simply allowing the fewest points.
The goal of this study is to dive into some common narratives surrounding DST in order to find an exploitable edge.
Don’t Get Cute: Play a Home Favorite
DSTs that are home favorites exceed salary-based expectations more often than not. Per our Trends tool, DraftKings DSTs that are home favorites easily outperform other DSTs (based on our Plus/Minus metric):
So there’s that. What else is there?
Should We Target Opponents With Low Point Totals or a Large Spread?
On the surface, the narrative that we should target opponents with low Vegas point totals makes sense. A low point total could mean a lot of things: Turnovers and, you know, fewer points.
But it could also make sense to target opponents that are implied to lose by a large spread. If a DST is playing with a big lead, it might be in more of an opportunistic situation to play aggressively. The DST might accumulate more sacks and interceptions as the opposing offense is forced to throw the ball more.
Which situation has historically yielded a higher DST Plus/Minus: A low opponent total or a large spread?
Home Favored DSTs vs. Opponents with Low Implied Totals:
Home Favored DSTs vs. Opponents with Large Spreads:
As you can see, it is much more valuable to target an opponent who is expected to lose by more than a touchdown than one implied not to score many points.
What happens when we combine the two trends?
Meh. This combined trend does provide the highest Consistency, but the ownership is higher and the Plus/Minus and actual points scored are lower than the ‘large spread’ trend.
That’s not really what we’re looking for in tournaments.
So How Can I Be Contrarian Without Being Stupid?
It may seem counterintuitive, but one way to be more contrarian with your DST decisions is to target games in which the over/under is higher than the average:
The Plus/Minus is higher and the Consistency is lower — which means that this trend has some ‘positive volatility’ — and the DK ownership is nearly cut in half.
Games with high totals seem to be ones that DK and DFS players have historically undervalued.
What Else Matters?
The QB a DST is facing really matters. In our Player Models, you can see for each opposing QB the percentages of pass snaps and attempts that result in sacks and INTs, both of which directly correlate with the Plus/Minus allowed to DSTs:
Sack and INT percentages are for the previous 16 games. In some cases, it’s possible that the 12-month window might not produce a sample that’s perfectly representative, but as a whole this data provides us with an edge — the small cohort of QBs who consistently take sacks, throw INTs, and yield fantasy points to opposing DSTs.
One More Metric
Another metric to consider is defensive hurries/rushes, which speaks to a DST’s ability to pressure a QB. This metric is valuable because pressure directly impacts sacks, turnovers, and ultimately defensive touchdowns.
The following Trend highlights DSTs that historically are in the top quintile in pressuring the QB.
Quarterbacks who are uncomfortable make more mistakes. A great way to target uncomfortable quarterbacks is to play defenses that consistently apply pressure.
Conclusion
Defensive touchdowns are inherently volatile, but there are predictive factors we can exploit in our DST decisions.
• Home favorites
• Big spreads
• High totals
• Defensive hurries/rushes
• Bad opponent QBs
These are the DSTs edges that in NFL DFS lead to profitability.
