The NFL DFS prime time slates have only two games but massive guaranteed prize pools. Also, they’re just plain fun. This week, here are the games offered in the slate:
That snippet is from our free NFL Vegas dashboard and is current as of 4pm ET Friday. Keep tabs on the dashboard for updates on the lines.
Quarterback
Projected Ceiling (DK): 32.4, Derek Anderson
Cam Newton has been ruled out for Week 5, and in his place Derek Anderson gets the start. Anderson doesn’t have the highest projected ceiling of the four QBs in the slate, but it’s the second-highest, which might be surprising considering that he’s a backup and the other QBs are all pretty good. It helps that he’s playing against the Buccaneers, who this season have allowed a +2.5 Opponent Plus/Minus to DraftKings QBs. Per Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), they are solid against the run (11th) but terrible against the pass (27th), making them a great funnel defense for QBs. And it’s not as if they’ve played against a murderer’s row of QBs: Carson Palmer and Matt Ryan are (probably) good, but Case Keenum isn’t and he exceeded value against the Bucs and Trevor Siemian was on his way to doing so before getting injured. This is a nice matchup, and Anderson certainly has the capacity to exploit it.
Red-Zone Opportunities Per Game: 6.6, Aaron Rodgers
Rodgers leads the four QBs in this slate in red-zone opportunities per game as well as several other important metrics, such as fantasy points per opportunity. He will most certainly be the highest-owned of the group, especially now that Cam is out. Rodgers is coming off an excellent outing, in which he completed four touchdowns in the first half and scored 26.4 DK points. He’s coming off a bye in Week 4 and gets a Giants team that is playing on a short week. However, the Giants have allowed the fifth-lowest Plus/Minus (-2.8) to QBs in 2016. It’s a small sample and this is a solid spot for Rodgers — he’s historically better at home — but you’ll have to decide if his probably production outweighs his high ownership.
Running Back
Bargain Rating (DK): 98 percent, Jacquizz Rodgers
This is an incredibly difficult slate for RBs: All four defenses are in the top 11 in run DVOA this year. Thus, it’s probably important to focus on volume, which is what we’ll do for this blurb and the next. Rodgers isn’t rated all that highly in our Player Models, but Charles Sims is doubtful and in his place Rodgers could get a lot of work. Rodgers probably isn’t a good running back — he’s averaged 3.7 yards per carry in his six-year career — but he could be the only healthy back for Tampa Bay on Monday night. He’s the minimum $3,000 on DK and could get nearly 100 percent of the RB touches. That’s a hard situation to turn down in this tough RB slate.
Rushing Market Share: 59.72 percent, Eddie Lacy
Lacy isn’t an exciting play in Week 5: He’s yet to score a touchdown in 2016 and barely hit value in Week 3 after recording a combined 13.8 DK points in Weeks 1 and 2. Further, he’s the most expensive RB on both sites at $5,900 on DK and $7,100 on FD. However, like J. Rodgers, he’s at least guaranteed work on Sunday night. He got 17 carries in Week 3 and owns 59.72 percent of the Packers’ rushes in 2016. Green Bay is currently a large seven-point favorite, which has historically been positive for RBs:
If the Packers get up big early (as they did in Week 3), they could ride Lacy in the second half. Honestly, this slate is so tough on RBs that simply rostering two who come somewhat close to hitting value could lead to profitability in guaranteed prize pools.
Wide Receiver
Projecting Ceiling (FD): 22.2, Jordy Nelson
As good as these teams are against the run, they’re equally bad against the pass. And man do we have a star-studded group to choose from: Nelson, Odell Beckham, Mike Evans, Kelvin Benjamin, and Randall Cobb all have high ceilings in this PT slate. Jordy looked like his old self in Week 3, catching six of his seven targets for 101 yards and two touchdowns. Per this week’s Market Share Report, he leads the Packers in market share of targets (29.35 percent), market share of Air Yards (31.70 percent), and targets inside the 10-yard line (four). Per the NFL Matchups tool, he’s set to line up against cornerback Janoris Jenkins, who owns a poor 67.1 grade from Pro Football Focus this year. Jordy has a FantasyLabs ownership projection of 17-20 percent in the main slate — the fourth-highest mark among WRs — and it will jump to exorbitant levels in this small slate.
Yards Per Target: 9.3, Odell Beckham
OK fine: Beckham’s teammate, Sterling Shepard, actually owns the highest yards per target in the slate at 10.0. However, I want to talk about Beckham instead, mostly because I believe the public is too down on him this season. Beckham is seeing 25.83 percent of the Giants’ targets and a whopping 40.03 percent of their Air Yards — both excellent marks. And they’re marks that aren’t dissimilar from his 2015 rates. And the same is true for his production, as Matthew Freedman pointed out in this week’s WR Breakdown. Beckham simply hasn’t gotten the touchdowns, which should regress at some point. Further, he’s faced the Vikings (the best defense in the league?) and Josh Norman (the best CB in the league?) in consecutive weeks. Odell is going to be fine, and you should jump on him while the public is down.
Tight End
Projected Ceiling (DK): 20.8, Greg Olsen
The TE spot is where the PT GPPs will be won this week. It’s actually a solid slate for TEs: Because of injuries, Olsen, Will Tye, Cameron Brate, and Richard Rodgers will all get the majority of their teams’ snaps and targets at the position. They’re all in play. And that is what makes Olsen so interesting: He’s $6,300 on DK, which is at least $3,400 more expensive than any of the other guys. Further, he won’t have Cam as his QB. With the stud WRs mentioned above, Olsen could go underowned relative to his ceiling — which is nearly eight points higher than the ceilings of the other TEs. Ironically, the best TE in the slate might actually be the best GPP leverage play.
Market Share of Targets: 22.86 percent, Cameron Brate
The other three guys are close in price — Brate and Rodgers are $2,900 on DK and Tye is $2,600 — and will all be fairly popular. However, if picking between the three, people will likely focus on matchup and fade the Panthers defense. That’s fair: They ranked sixth in DVOA before last week’s meltdown against the Falcons (they’re 11th now) and they finished 2015 as the fifth-best defense overall and second-best against the pass. History suggests to target Tye or Rodgers instead. However, Brate is showing that he’s an important part of his offense: His target share has increased each week, culminating in a 22.86 percent share in Week 4 — second only to Evans’ 31.43 percent mark. Further, Brate is probably the best red-zone threat of this group and has received three targets inside the 10-yard line this year — the most on his team and easily the most of this TE group.
Good luck in Week 5!
