NFL Trend of the Week
It’s a common assumption that teams don’t run the ball if they’re playing from behind (well . . . for teams coached by someone other than Jeff Fisher, anyway). After all, it makes sense that losing teams pass more often in order to catch up. But should DFS players avoid a running back just because his team is an underdog and could abandon the running game?
To examine this, let’s first find out whether running backs actually disappoint as underdogs.
Projections > Proj Pts > 4.0 to 29.7
Setting a minimum of 4.0 projected fantasy points removes bench players from our results and sets a DraftKings Plus/Minus baseline of +1.74.
Vegas Filters > Favorite / Dog > Dog
No surprises here: the assumption is true, as the baseline drops for running backs who are Vegas underdogs in their matchup. But what happens if we add a Pro Trends filter? Is it possible for backs with a high amount of Pro Trends to reverse the effects of the underdog label?
Trends > Pro Trends > 5 to 15
This is the result we were hoping for. Adding a filter of at least five DK Pro Trends to the running back group boosts the baseline by +1.00 points, suggesting RBs can still have DFS value despite being underdogs. The Pro Trends filter also increased Consistency by a sizable margin.
Running Back Role
With this trend in mind, it’s reasonable to wonder if a running back’s role matters. For example, a pass-catching back should naturally benefit from an underdog game script, as they remain involved if their team does in fact abandon the run. Conversely, two-down grinder backs should be the players suffering in the same situation. Let’s use a receiving target filter to examine this further.
Receiving Filters > Receiving Targets > 4 to 8
Sure enough, the Plus/Minus increases for running backs receiving at least four targets per game.
Receiving Filters > Receiving Targets > 0 to 3
On the flip side, changing the filter to a maximum of three targets per game gives surprising results, as the Plus/Minus and Consistency show minimal movement. In fact, the Plus/Minus remains 0.96 points over the original baseline, proving that two-down running backs are not only viable options as underdogs but also very close in value to pass-catching backs.
Current Matches
Of the entire running back group for Week 5, Jordan Howard’s name immediately stands out. He is tied for the second-most DK Pro Trends on the list (8) and should remain a focal point of Chicago’s offense with Jeremy Langford still sidelined. His salary on DraftKings is also very palatable at just $5,200.
Devonta Freeman faces a tough matchup in Denver this week, but he’s played very well in Atlanta’s timeshare thus far. His salary ($5,000) is even less than Howard’s.
Lamar Miller and Melvin Gordon could still prove valuable this week despite being higher-priced underdogs. Finally, with a DraftKings salary of just $4,800, Carlos Hyde may be the sneakiest value of the bunch.
