The NFL DFS prime time slates have only two games but massive guaranteed prize pools. Also, they’re just plain fun. This week, here are the games offered in the slate:
That snippet is from our free NFL Vegas dashboard and is current as of noon ET Saturday. Keep tabs on the dashboard for updates on the lines.
Quarterback
Projected Ceiling (DK): 37.1, Ben Roethlisberger
Roethlisberger leads the four QBs with a projected ceiling of 37.1 DraftKings points. We all know by now that Ben, and the Steelers as a whole, have been much better at home than on the road in the last several years.
He has the toughest matchup on the board: The Chiefs have held QBs to a -3.2 Opponent Plus/Minus over the last 16 games, and they’re coming off an outing in which they picked off Ryan Fitzpatrick six times and scored two touchdowns. However, Ben gets another elite weapon back this week in Le’Veon Bell and of course has the best receiver in football, Antonio Brown. He’ll be highly-owned in this slate regardless of matchup, and it’s for good reason.
Opponent Plus/Minus (FD): +3.6, Sam Bradford
Bradford faces a Giants defense that has been great against the run (seventh per Football Outsiders) but poor against the pass (22nd). Further, the Giants have allowed QBs to score 3.6 FanDuel points above salary-based expectations over the past year. Bradford has now played two good defenses in Green Bay and Carolina — the first of which he shredded two Mondays ago — and now gets a cake matchup in New York. A Bradford stack with either Stefon Diggs or Kyle Rudolph makes a lot of sense.
Running Back
Projected Plus/Minus (DK): +7.6, Jerick McKinnon
I know, I just mentioned that New York is much better against the run versus the pass. This is really about pricing: McKinnon is the starting RB for a team that is currently a four-point favorite and implied to score 23.5 points. And he’s only $3,900. That’s just too cheap, even though he did finish with only 7.7 DK points last week while posting 2.8 yards per carry. Historically, RBs under $4,000 who are starters (via projected points) on favored teams have done really well:
Pro Trends (FD): 10, Le’Veon Bell
Bell is back from suspension and will immediately take over almost all of the Steelers’ snaps at RB, despite backup DeAngelo Williams’ incredible success through the first three weeks. Bell might be the best RB in the league: Over the last two years, he has averaged a ridiculous 4.8 yards per carry and is an elite passing-catching back, too. In his last full 16-game season (in 2014), he caught 83 of his 105 targets for 854 yards and 10.3 yards per reception. He’s a RB1 and a WR2 in the same person.
Wide Receiver
Opponent Plus/Minus (DK): +3.7, Chiefs WRs
In the past year, the Steelers have allowed 3.7 points over salary-based expectations to DK WRs. Jeremy Maclin got seven targets last week, which was a sizable dip from the 15 and 40.54 percent target share in Week 2. However, context is needed here: Week 3 was a game in which the Chiefs defense picked off Fitzpatrick six times and scored two touchdowns. They were up 17-0 midway through the second quarter and never really needed Maclin. This week they face the dynamic Steelers offense and will need to put up some points: Maclin is the best candidate to do just that.
Market Share of Air Yards: 28.95 percent, Sammie Coates
Antonio Brown actually owns the highest percentage of the Steelers’ air yards this season at 36.67 percent. However, that’s to be expected. He also owns 33.91 percent of their targets. It might surprise you, because Coates owns only 9.57 percent of the Steelers’ targets this year — behind Brown, DeAngelo, Jesse James, and Eli Rogers — but Coates owns the second-highest percentage of air yards at 28.95 percent. Coates is certainly a boom-or-bust option, but there are indicators that if Coates manages to catch a couple of balls they could be GPP-winning types of catches.
Tight End
Targets: 26, Kyle Rudolph
Rudolph has always had the talent to break out and is finally doing it in 2016. He is second in the NLF among all TEs with 26 targets (behind Greg Olsen). He’s also been a threat in the red zone, leading the Vikings in touches inside the 10-yard line this year. It also seems that sites aren’t really catching on and adjusting his salary high enough:
As mentioned in the Bradford blurb, the Vikings will likely look to beat the Giants through the air, and Rudolph is a solid bet to be a big part of that strategy. Oh yeah, and the Giants are one of the worst teams in the NFL versus TEs: They’ve allowed 3.9 DK points over expectations to TEs over the past 16 games.
Projected Ceiling (FD): 15.5, Travis Kelce
Rudolph is in a much better spot, has arguably been the better player this year, and is somehow about $1,000 cheaper on both DK and FD. For that reason, exceeding public ownership on Kelce might not be a bad leverage play, as he will probably go a bit underowned relative to his ceiling. Kelce has the best long-term marks of TEs in the slate. For example, he leads the group with four receptions and 51 yards per game as well as 11.3 YPR over the last year. Between Rudolph, James, and even the Giants’ TEs (although I’m personally not touching them against the Minnesota defense), pretty much all of the TEs are viable plays. Kelce might be the best leverage one in the prime time GPPs.
Good luck!
