The Week 4 NFL Dashboard
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Titans at Texans
The Houston Texans are currently 6.5-point favorites for their Week 4 matchup against the Tennessee Titans. Marcus Mariota and the struggling Titans offense are implied to score just 17 points — the lowest implied total in Week 4. The Texans are implied to score 23.5 points and will attempt to improve to 3-1 on the season. Let’s take a look at who will be flying around the field on Sunday afternoon in Houston.
Tennessee Titans
Writer: Ian Hartitz
Researcher: Zachary Rabinovitz
QB – Marcus Mariota
Mariota has struggled in 2016:
As our Trends tool shows, he’s posted a -1.78 Plus/Minus and averaged just 14.7 DraftKings points through the Titans’ first three games. A closer look at his 15 career starts reveals that much of his production has come against terrible defenses. In three games against bottom-six defenses in yards per play allowed over the past 12 months, Mariota has averaged 25.8 fantasy points and 9.2 yards per attempt. In his other 12 starts (excluding one injury-shortened performance against the Patriots), he’s averaged just 16.9 fantasy points and 7.03 yards per attempt.
It’s been more bad than good for Mariota in 2016, as the Titans’ 14 points per game are the second-fewest in the league. He’s priced at $5,500 on DraftKings with a 92 percent Bargain Rating but faces a tough Texans defense that has allowed 3.2 fewer points than salary-based expectations to quarterbacks over the past 12 months.
RB – DeMarco Murray
Through three weeks, Murray’s 25.9 DraftKings points per game are the most among all running backs. He appears to be back to his tackle-breaking ways after rushing for 69 yards after contact in Week 3 — his most in a single game since 2014, per PFF. Murray faces a Houston front seven that was exploited by LeGarrette Blount last week, mostly on the right side of the defense. Texans linebacker Benardrick McKinney was at the forefront of most of those rushes and he’s been one of PFF’s lowest-graded linebackers against the run this season.
This sets up nicely for the Titans’ run game, as they’ve run the ball to the left side of the line twice as often (and more efficiently) than to the right side in 2016, per sharpfootballstats.com. Murray is priced at $7,300 on FanDuel with a 99 percent Bargain Rating, although his nine to 12 percent FantasyLabs projected ownership is significantly higher than similarly-priced backs in Christine Michael and Devonta Freeman.
RB – Derrick Henry
Henry had 10 carries for 45 rushing yards in Week 3, both of which marked new single-game highs. He continues to play well in his limited opportunities, as evidenced by PFF grading him as the 19th-best running back in 2016. Still, as long as Murray continues to thrive as the team’s bell cow, there aren’t enough touches available to make Henry anything more than a risky pick with a low floor. He’s priced at $3,500 on DK and faces a Texans defense that has allowed 1.2 points over salary-based expectations to RBs over the past 12 months.
WR – Tajae Sharpe
Sharpe had a great matchup in Week 3 against a subpar Raiders secondary but finished with just 48 receiving yards on seven targets. Through three weeks, he still hasn’t scored a touchdown and has just one reception over 20 yards. Sharpe’s ceiling with Mariota at quarterback may not be very high, as Mariota’s 5.61 adjusted yards per attempt average is the fourth-lowest among all quarterbacks, and he’s also targeted his tight ends at a league-high rate.
With Kendall Wright set to make his season debut in Week 4, Sharpe could become even less involved in the offense. Despite all this, he’s had the second-highest salary increase among all wide receivers on DraftKings since the season opener. Sharpe will face a Texans defense that finished in the top-six in both average fantasy points and Plus/Minus allowed to WRs in 2015, however, given the pricing and volume concerns listed above, he might be a guy to fade in GPPs.
Sharpe has been limited in practice with a hamstring issue, but he’s expected to play this week.
WR – Rishard Matthews
Matthews is averaging just 1.1 fantasy points per target and has not been targeted inside the 10-yard line. His status as the No. 2 receiver in the offense may be gone with the return of Wright. Still, Matthews is priced at $3,100 on DK with an 87 percent Bargain Rating and his +5.3 Projected Plus/Minus is the third-highest mark among all wide receivers.
WR – Kendall Wright
Wright will make his season debut after missing the first three weeks with a hamstring injury. He’s performed well in the past with a featured role in the offense:
As the RotoViz Game Splits App shows, Wright has averaged a strong 15.18 PPR points in his 26 career games with at least eight targets. Although eight targets may be hard to come by in the Titans’ run-first offense, he’s the team’s most accomplished receiver under 35 years old. Wright costs the DraftKings minimum, although he’s a risky pick with his role currently undefined in the offense.
TE – Delanie Walker
Walker didn’t play in the Titans’ Week 3 loss to the Raiders due to a hamstring injury, but he did return to practice on Thursday in a limited role. He was great during the first two weeks of the season, posting a +5.57 Plus/Minus and averaging 13.75 DraftKings points. Jace Amaro played well in place of Walker, gaining 59 receiving yards on just four targets. If Walker is able to suit up on Sunday, he’ll have a tough matchup against a Texans defense that was the fifth-best in Plus/Minus allowed to tight ends in 2015.
Walker is officially questionable and will be a game-time decision, although he seems to be trending in the right direction. Per head coach Mike Mularkey, Walker’s availability hinges on how he performs in the pre-game workout.
Houston Texans
Writer: Ian Hartitz
Researcher: Zachary Rabinovitz
QB – Brock Osweiler
Osweiler was fifth in the league in completion rate and quarterback rating on deep passes entering the Texans’ Week 3 matchup against the Patriots, but he failed to complete any of his four pass attempts over 20 yards last Thursday night. The Patriots sat in cover-two for most of the game and forced him to try to consistently pick up yards on short and intermediate passes. This strategy worked, as Osweiler threw for just 196 passing yards on 41 attempts, good for a 4.78 yards-per-attempt average, which was the worst single-game mark of his career. Whether other teams will deploy this same strategy against the Texans remains to be seen, but Osweiler should have an easier time in Week 4 against a Titans secondary that finished in the bottom-six in both average fantasy points and Plus/Minus allowed to quarterbacks in 2015.
And it’s possible that the entire Texans offense will be aided by head coach Bill O’Brien‘s resumption of play-calling duties.
RB – Lamar Miller
Through three weeks it is becoming more and more clear that the Texans have no plans of reining in Miller’s workload. He’s now on pace for 443 touches, which would rank as the eighth-most ever in a single season. Despite this monstrous workload, Miller is ranked just 20th among all running backs in DraftKings points per game. This is mostly due to him not having scored a touchdown yet. Miller has received only one carry inside the five-yard line this season, as the Texans’ 2.3 red-zone opportunities per game are the fourth-lowest in the league. He’ll look to capitalize on his limited scoring opportunities in Week 4 against a Titans defense that has allowed 7.62 yards per play over the past 12 months.
RB – Alfred Blue
Blue is averaging under three touches a game and won’t be a fantasy option as long as Miller is taking up 78.7 percent of the Texans’ RB opportunities. Meanwhile, No. 3 RB Jonathan Grimes is expected to miss some time with a cracked fibula, so Blue’s No. 2 role at least seems to be secure for now.
WR – DeAndre Hopkins
Hopkins is not on pace to meet his 192 targets from a season ago, but he’s still been targeted at a top-15 rate and has averaged 1.86 fantasy points per target. He could see a lot of Titans cornerback Perrish Cox this Sunday, who has lined up as the team’s left cornerback on 95 percent of his snaps this season. The Texans move Hopkins all around the formation, but he’s spent the majority of his snaps at right wide receiver. Considering Cox has been PFF’s lowest-graded cornerback this season, it’s a massive advantage for Hopkins and represents the biggest grade differential between all wide receiver/cornerback matchups in Week 4. He’s priced at $8,600 on FanDuel with a 96 percent Bargain Rating and eight Pro Trends.
WR – Will Fuller
Fuller came crashing back to earth during the Texans’ Week 3 loss to the Patriots, gaining just 31 receiving yards after back-to-back weeks of finishing in the triple digits. He’s still averaging a strong 9.7 yards per target on the season and will have chances to take the top off a suspect Titans secondary. The Titans defense has allowed a 50.66 percent pass success rate over the past 12 months — the fifth-worst mark in the league. The issue may be with the safeties, as PFF has graded both Rashad Johnson and Da’Norris Searcy outside of the top-60 cover safeties this season. Fuller is priced at $5,300 on DraftKings and his seven DraftKings Pro Trends are tied for the fourth-most among all wide receivers.
WR – Jaelen Strong
Strong was the Texans’ third receiver in Week 3 and will be again in Week 4, as Braxton Miller is to miss his second consecutive game with a hamstring injury. Strong didn’t do much with his opportunity last week, gaining just 15 receiving yards on four targets. Strong was productive in college and has the athleticism of a No. 1 receiver, but his upside is limited until he becomes more consistent and gains a larger role in the offense. He’s priced at $3,100 on DraftKings with a -2.5 Projected Plus/Minus.
TE – Ryan Griffin
Griffin was a huge beneficiary of the Patriots’ Week 3 game plan, as he received 10 targets from Osweiler. This was more than double the number of targets he received through the first two weeks of the season. While Griffin caught eight of those targets for 52 receiving yards, this game demonstrated that the goal of the Houston offense is not to utilize him. He’s priced at $2,600 on DK and has the second-lowest floor among all non-minimum priced tight ends in Week 4. That said, Griffin does have a good matchup against a Titans defense that finished in the bottom-eight in both average fantasy points and Plus/Minus allowed to the position in 2015.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
