The Week 4 NFL Dashboard
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Cowboys at 49ers
The Cowboys travel to Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, CA, as a 2.5-point Vegas favorite implied to score 24.25 points. The 49ers are implied to score 21.75 points as home underdogs. Keep an eye on the winds closer to kickoff as the current forecast is calling for gusts of 18 miles per hour gusts on Sunday.
Cowboys
Writer: Kelly McCann
QB – Dak Prescott
Dak is coming off his most productive game (in terms of fantasy points) and is trying to make things difficult for Tony Romo to get his job back. Prescott’s ability to run enhances both his floor and upside. He has attempted two rushes and scored two touchdowns from inside the 10-yard line this season. There are 17 quarterbacks priced higher than Prescott on DraftKings, where his FantasyLabs projected ownership is at less than five percent. QBs with comparable salaries and projected ceilings on DK have previoulsy provided a +2.47 Plus/Minus. Prescott is an intriguing play in guaranteed prize pools, both naked and stacked with Cowboys receivers.
RB – Ezekiel Elliott
Zeke gets fed and Zeke eats. Elliott has handled 70.30 percent of the Cowboys rushes this season. He has not carried the ball fewer than 20 times in a game and has been targeted exactly twice in each game. Only four other running backs have accounted for a higher percentage of teams touches. His volume is incredibly consistent and safe. Ezekiel has an 89 percent Bargain Rating on FanDuel, where he is currently a top-five RB in Adam Levitan’s Player Model. Unleash Zeke in cash games on FD this week.
RB – Cowboys Vultures RBs not named Ezekiel
Both Alfred Morris and Lance Dunbar vultured touchdowns from Elliott last week. But Morris played seven total snaps, and Dunbar played six. Dunbar has played 32 snaps this season and Morris has played 31. Morris is second on the Cowboys with a 16.83 percent share of the rushes, and Dunbar has seen just 4.12 percent of the team’s targets. Neither player can be used as anything other than a fart-in-the-wind GPP play.
WR – Dez Bryant
Dez Bryant is officially listed as questionable . . . excuse me, ‘questionable.’ After saying on Friday that he wouldn’t play this weekend because he, you know, has a fractured knee, the Cowboys listed him as ‘questionable.’ While there’s apparently always the hope that owner Jerry Jones‘ unique brand of medicine and devil deals can get Dez ready to play against the 49ers, Bryant’s questionable tag is . . . questionable.
He’s traveled with the team to San Francisco but is expected not to play.
WR – Cole Beasley
Beasley leads all Cowboys with 25.77 percent of the team’s targets and ranks 25th in the NFL with 25 targets this season. He’ll have to contend with 49ers slot-corner Rashard Robinson, who has a respectable 72.8 grade from PFF. But Beasley actually grades out as PFF’s 15th-best receiver through three games, and his 0.41 PPR fantasy points per opportunity is 19th best in the NFL. He currently has a top-20 projected Plus/Minus of +3.3 on DK, where the 49ers have allowed a +1.5 Plus/Minus to WRs. Per our Trends tool, receivers in comparable spots have manufactured a +3.12 Plus/Minus on 63.6 percent Consistency. Beasley is a fine, cheap cash-play on DK this week (even more so if Bryant can’t play).
If Dez is out, Beasley is likely to see his share of targets increase this week.
WR – Terrance Williams
Williams returned from the dead and led the Cowboys in receiving yards last week. He managed that on just four targets, however, and through three games Williams owns just 8.25 percent of the Cowboys’ total targets. Beasley, Bryant, and Jason Witten get more volume on a weekly basis, but if Dez is out Williams has the potential to lead the team in receiving once again. Per the RotoViz Game Splits App, Williams’ targets per game nearly double when playing without Bryant. If Bryant can’t play, then Williams becomes a fascinating large-field GPP play to stack with Dak.
TE – Jason Witten
For the third straight week, Witten played every one of the Cowboys’ offensive snaps. Tight ends who have averaged comparable snap counts in the previous month have produced a +2.47 Plus/Minus on FD with 61.2 percent Consistency. Witten’s 20.62 percent target share is third on the team but not far from Beasley’s and Bryant’s shares. His targets have decreased steadily since the massive 14 he earned in Week 1, which may have people looking elsewhere for a TE this week. Our FantasyLabs projected ownership for Witten is just two to four percent in FD’s Sunday Million. Witten is a solid GPP play to stack with Prescott.
San Francisco 49ers
Writer: Bryan Mears
QB – Blaine Gabbert
Gabbert was unable to hit his salary-based expectation last week for the first time this year. He struggled mightily against the Seattle defense, completing only 14 of his 25 passes for 119 yards, no touchdowns, and an interception. Interestingly, the 49ers were down in this game and still Gabbert wasn’t able to rack up the number of passes that he had in Weeks 1 and 2 at 35 and 36. He owns the worst adjusted yards per pass attempt at 5.52 among all QBs in this slate — yes, worse than even Case Keenum and a variety of other QBs (some of whom [I’m speculating] maybe didn’t even play QB in college). This is a tough bounceback spot, unfortunately: The Cowboys have held QBs to 1.1 points under salary-based expectations over the past year — a top-eight mark in the NFL.
RB – Carlos Hyde
Rain or shine, win or lose, up 40 or down 40 — Carlos Hyde will get his touches:
Despite the tough matchup and negative game flow, the 49ers still ran through Hyde: He ended up with 103 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 21 carries. While Dallas is stingy against QBs, they’re actually not great against RBs: They’ve allowed DK backs to score 1.8 points over salary-based expectations in the last year. Hyde is oddly cheap this week on DK at $4,200 and he owns a 98 percent Bargain Rating there. He’s such a value that he’s the second-highest rated DK RB in the Bales Model, boasting a silly-high +7.6 Projected Plus/Minus. Say what you want about the 49ers offense, but it’s just too hard to turn down 20 carries at just $4,200. Hyde’s in play everywhere this week.
RB – Shaun Draughn
Draughn is still a part of this offense: He got 16.13 percent of the 49ers’ rushes in Week 3 after getting 34.62 percent in Week 2. However, he has such a limited upside, as Hyde dominates the 49ers’ red-zone opportunities. Among all players, he has the second-most touches inside the 10-yard line at eight.
WR – Torrey Smith
Smith got 10 targets in Week 2 and was able to have a solid fantasy day thanks to getting in the end zone. He certainly wasn’t efficient, as he caught only three of those passes for 55 yards. In Week 3, his volume took a big dip and he received only four targets — 16 percent of the 49ers’ passes. This week’s matchup isn’t great, as the Cowboys have held WRs to just 0.6 points over salary-based expectations on DK in the last year. Smith, along with all of the 49ers receivers, are really cheap — he’s only $3,900 — but he’s cheap for a good reason: His 15.8-point projected ceiling just isn’t high enough to warrant significant exposure in tournaments.
WR – Jeremy Kerley
Kerley has seen the most targets on the team in two out of the first three weeks. In Week 1, he saw 32.35 percent of the 49ers’ targets and in Week 2 he saw 24 percent. Unfortunately, he just hasn’t done much with the opportunity: With those 23 targets, he’s caught just 12 passes for 114 total yards and zero touchdowns. This is the same issue with Smith, Quinton Patton, and any other pass catcher on the 49ers: Their floors and ceilings are just way too low to use them reliably in DFS contests.
TE – Vance McDonald
At least McDonald has gotten into the end zone this year. He has two touchdowns in the 49ers’ first three games. Unfortunately, those scores have been on just incredibly low usage: He has received a total of seven targets this year, catching five of them. He’s very cheap at just $2,700 on DK but has just a nine-point projected ceiling. This is a mediocre matchup and his +1.6 Projected Plus/Minus is nothing to write home about. Hyde is the 49er you want this week, especially since McDonaly exited Week 3 with a hip injury and might not play this week.
McDonald (hip) is officially questionable for Week 4. If he misses the game, then Garrett Celek will function as the team’s primary TE. He’s Brent’s brother, a fact that tells you almost all you need to know about him.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
