The Week 4 NFL Dashboard
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Panthers at Falcons
This game currently has a 50-point implied Vegas total. The Falcons are currently 3.5-point home underdogs, implied to score 23.25 points. The Panthers are implied to score 26.75 points as road favorites.
Carolina Panthers
Writer: Tyler Buecher
QB – Cam Newton
After an abysmal 16.1-point FanDuel performance last week, Cam and company will look to get their passing attack back on track in Atlanta. The Falcons are currently averaging 34.7 points per game and this matchup has plenty of shootout potential. Cam had trouble connecting with his receivers last week, but the Falcons are currently allowing the fifth-most passing yards and the most passing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks this season. Per our Player Models, no quarterback has a higher projection, ceiling, or floor on FD in Week 4. If looking to lock up one of this week’s top quarterbacks, take advantage of Cam’s projected nine to 12 percent ownership in a great bounce-back situation.
RB – Cameron Artis-Payne
After being inactive the first two weeks, CAP saw 40 percent of the snaps and 48.1 percent of the running back touches in Week 3 in Jonathan Stewart‘s absence. Unfortunately, Fozzy Whittaker is also seeing a sizable portion of the snaps and touches, with Cam and Mike Tolbert also in contention for red-zone opportunities. CAP has a wide range of outcomes, but if living the contrarian life, he makes for an interesting stacking option as a touchdown-chasing play paired with the Carolina D/ST.
RB – Fozzy Whittaker
After seeing 10 touches last week, Whittaker could be an interesting tournament play on DraftKings if this game turns into a shootout. Atlanta has allowed the most receptions to opposing running backs and Whitaker has seen 14.1 percent of the team’s targets over the past two weeks with 10 total targets. These types of running backs have fared historically well against Atlanta over the past two years:
A +4.41 Plus/Minus is certainly worth chasing in large-field GPPs, particularly in a game with a projected 50-point total.
RB – Mike Tolbert
Per the Week 4 Market Share Report, Tolbert has seen just 31.8 percent of the snaps and just one touch inside the 10-yard line on the season; he has a low floor and ceiling.
WR – Kelvin Benjamin
After scoring 21.1 and 32.8 points on DK in his first two weeks, Benjamin was held without a catch in Week 3 as the Minnesota defense smothered him in coverage. Per Pro Football Focus, Kelvin has run 49 percent of his routes from the left side of the formation, where he should spend most of his time lined up against Desmond Trufant. Trufant just limited Brandin Cooks to one nine-yard catch on five targets on Monday Night Football and has been giving opposing top receivers trouble all season so far. If Benjamin is going to have success in this game, it’ll likely come when he’s not lining up against Trufant.
WR – Devin Funchess
We’re still waiting on Funchess to have a breakout game, but after also being held without a catch last week, Funchess has seen a -$1,200 Salary Change on DK. Through three games he has seen 10 total targets, under 60 percent of the snaps, and zero targets inside the 10-yard line. Brian Poole has done a solid job locking down the slot for Atlanta so far this season, leaving Funchess as nothing more than a cheap $3,600 tournament flier.
WR – Ted Ginn Jr.
With Funchess struggling, Ginn has seen an expanded role in this offense with 11 targets over the past two weeks. Ginn remains a boom-or-bust candidate, but Atlanta has already allowed the third-most pass plays of 20-plus yards so far this year (14). Robert Alford ranks as PFF’s 61st-ranked cornerback on the year and has allowed 0.33 fantasy points per route defended. Ginn offers a 97 percent Bargain rating on DK with a 60 percent Upside rating. The high projected point total for Carolina makes Ginn an intriguing tournament option.
TE – Greg Olsen
The Falcons have struggled defending opposing tight ends, giving up the second-highest Plus/Minus to the position at +2.70 in the last year. They also have the fourth-worst defense, per Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Olsen hasn’t fared too well against Atlanta since joining the Panthers, averaging just 12.4 fantasy points on DK. That could change this week with the Falcons giving up the most fantasy points to the position through three weeks into the season. Olsen is currently seeing 25.5 percent of the team’s targets, 31.9 percent of the receiving yards, and 20 percent of the receiving touchdowns. At $6,000, Olsen makes for a great cash and GPP play with a high ceiling.
Atlanta Falcons
Writer: Tyler Buecher
QB – Matt Ryan
Ryan continues to excel in 2016, finishing now as the QB5, QB2, and QB11 on DraftKings through the first three weeks. Playing at home as 3.5-point underdogs, Ryan has typically excelled when he and the Falcons are home dogs:
Posting a whopping +7.48 Plus/Minus, Ryan should once again be on our radars as a play this week. Carolina has yet to face a top-flight quarterback and will be tested in Atlanta taking on Ryan, whose +7.56 Plus/Minus and 25.37 fantasy points are second-most among all quarterbacks this year.
RB – Devonta Freeman
The Falcons running backs continue to share snaps, carries, and receptions, which can be frustrating for DFS players. Kyle Shanahan has done a nice job of mixing in both Freeman and Tevin Coleman so far this season; both played very well last week on Monday Night Fooball. In fact, it was the first time Freeman eclipsed 10 points on DK this season. Carolina has been stout against opposing receiving-type backs, allowing just 11 receptions on the year (fourth-lowest) and a +0.8 Plus/Minus to the position. Targeting Freeman seems like a risky proposition in this matchup.
RB – Tevin Coleman
While Freeman never hit the 10-point mark on DK until Week 3, Coleman has been over 15 points each week this season and ended up scoring 29.9 against the Saints last week. At a $1,000 cheaper price tag, Coleman could be an interesting dart throw for exposure to this game. The Falcons lead the league in red-zone trips per game so far this year, and the two running backs have nearly identical touches from inside the 20- and the 10-yard lines. However, the ceiling for both these running backs is significantly hampered against a good run defense.
WR – Julio Jones
A clear decoy on Monday Night Football, Julio’s ankle and calf were bothering him greatly as he played just 73 percent of the snaps and caught only one pass. The Falcons limited Julio’s practice reps this week, but he finished the week not on the injury report. Carolina has inexperienced (albeit promising) cornerbacks, and Julio leads all WRs with nine FD Pro Trends. Julio could be a high-reward play with reduced ownership, due to the previous injury concerns. Our current FantasyLabs ownership projections have him at just five to eight percent.
WR – Mohamed Sanu
Sanu worked his way through a shoulder injury this week and was absent from Atlanta’s injury report. He’s set to play this weekend. Sanu has been off to a rocky start this season with just six catches for 50 yards in his past two games combined. Given his limited success so far this season and $6,200 price tag on FD, there are better plays to pursue.
WR – Justin Hardy
Seeing just 23 snaps per game and a 6.9 percent target market share, Hardy should be faded on both sites.
TE – Jacob Tamme
Tamme continues to lead the team in receptions and at this point looks like the safest play to stack with Ryan this week. Carolina is giving up the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends, and with the injuries to Ryan’s top-two wideouts, he could be in line for another eight-plus target game (he has two of them already). Tamme looks like a sound GPP option on DK given his seven Pro Trends and Atlanta’s aforementioned high red-zone trip rate.
TE – Austin Hooper
Hooper was limited to just 14 snaps last week with zero targets. Bigger days are ahead for the rookie, but he should remain off your radar for Week 4.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
