The games today are spread out a bit. There are two beginning at 1:10pm, two at 4:05pm ET, one at 6:10pm, and the remaining 10 in the main slate at 7:05pm ET. Let’s jump in.
Pitchers
Madison Bumgarner faces a San Diego team currently implied by Vegas for 2.8 runs. After struggling against these very Padres two games ago, Bumgarner bounced back nicely in his last game against the Dodgers, striking out 10 batters and allowing a single hit in seven innings. His advanced stats are trending back in the right direction: He’s allowed an exit velocity of 90 miles per hour and a hard-hit rate of 29 percent in his last three games. He boasts the second-highest K Prediction today at 8.5, and he’s a huge -215 favorite.
Clayton Kershaw has some ridiculous marks today. First, he’s facing a Rockies team currently implied for 2.1 runs. Yes, 2.1 runs. In the past three years, only three pitchers have had opposing implied totals of no more than 2.1 runs: They’ve all been Kershaw. For what it’s worth, he’s exceeded value by 6.82 FanDuel points in those instances. Second, he’s an absolutely silly -324 favorite. There have been only 10 pitchers in the last three years with that mark and six of those were Kershaw. Pitchers in those games collectively had a +6.97 FD Plus/Minus.
Kershaw got up to six innings last game and he’s just in incredible form: In his last three games, he’s allowed a batted-ball distance of 159 feet, an exit velocity of 83 miles per hour, and a hard-hit rate of 33 percent. He boasts the slate’s highest K Prediction at 10. He doesn’t have complete-game upside right now, but he could still outscore everyone in just six innings.
Boston righty Rick Porcello faces a Rays team on the road (Park Factor of 90) currently implied for 3.6 runs. He’s been awesome lately:
In his last 10 games, he’s exceeded FD value by an average of 10.3 points. His advanced stats are solid, too: He’s allowed an exit velocity of 90 MPH, a line-drive rate of 11 percent, and a hard-hit rate of 34 percent in his last three starts. He doesn’t have the strikeout upside of Kershaw or Bumgarner — his K Prediction sits eighth at 6.7 — but he provides a lot of safety at a cheaper price. He’s $9,800 on FD and boasts a 99 percent Bargain Rating there.
Marlins lefty Wei-Yin Chen faces a Braves team currently implied for 3.7 runs. His first game back on Monday after returning from injury was OK: He struck out three and allowed four hits in 4.1 innings against the Nationals. His advanced stats from that game are excellent: He allowed an exit velocity of only 86 MPH and induced ground balls at a 57 percent clip. His 5.4 K Prediction is average today, but this is a solid matchup and Chen is only $5,500 on DraftKings.
After hitting a rough patch, Tigers southpaw Daniel Norris is back on the upswing:
However, his advanced stats are still a bit concerning: He’s allowed a batted-ball distance of 226 feet, an exit velocity of 91 MPH, and a fly-ball rate of 42 percent in his last two starts. Despite that, his Vegas data is solid today: The Royals are currently implied for 3.8 runs and Norris is a solid -155 favorite. He has a decent 6.1 K Prediction, $7,000 FD salary, and 82 percent FD Bargain Rating. There’s a big drop after Bumgarner, Kershaw, and Porcello — but Norris isn’t a terrible option if you’re fading those guys.
Mets lefty Sean Gilmartin will get his second career start in the majors after Noah Syndergaard was scratched yesterday from this outing. It is incredibly hard to tell how Gilmartin will do or how long he will last in this start. His advanced stats are elite: He’s allowed a batted-ball distance of 147 feet, an exit velocity of 82 MPH, a line-drive rate of seven percent, and a hard-hit rate of 30 percent over his last four games. However, that was all in relief stints. He lasted five innings in his first MLB start last season, but that’s not really useful now. This is a nice matchup and Gilmartin is available for the bare minimum salary, but there’s too much uncertainty for him to be anything more than a speculative tournament play. He realistically could pitch only three innings and be done.
Cardinals rookie Alex Reyes was just called up in August. He’s 22 years old. But in his short time in the majors, he’s been dominant. In his last start against the Giants, he struck out six batters and allowed four hits and no runs in seven innings pitched — a 51-point FD outing. His advanced stats are excellent, too: In his last two games, he’s allowed a batted-ball distance of 196 feet, an exit velocity of 86 MPH, a line-drive rate of six percent, and a hard-hit rate of 16 percent. The matchup against the Cubs is a tough one, but at only $5,500 on FD he’s certainly worth the risk in a tournament lineup.
Stacks
On DK, the highest-rated five-man stack in the CSURAM88 Player Model is a straight 1-2-3-4-5 stack of the Seattle Mariners.
They are currently implied for 5.2 runs and face Twins righty Tyler Duffey, who owns a miserable 1.547 WHIP in the past year. The Mariners put up 10 runs just last night.
Excluding the Mariners on FD (where they own the two top stacks), the highest-rated four-man stack is a 1-2-3-5 stack of the Blue Jays:
Toronto had nine runs last night and is currently implied for a slate-high 5.4 runs today.
Batters
Joey Votto is currently projected to bat third for a Reds team implied for 4.5 runs. He crushes righties and gets one today; he has a .413 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA), .229 Isolated Power (ISO), and .548 slugging percentage in the last year versus RHP. Votto has been destroying the ball lately, too: He’s averaged a batted-ball distance of 237 feet, an exit velocity of 95 MPH, a fly-ball rate of 38 percent, and a hard-hit rate of 40 percent. He faces Taylor Jungmann, who owns the worst WHIP today at 1.887.
Christian Yelich is projected to bat cleanup for a Marlins team currently implied for 4.9 runs. He’s another lefty who crushes righties: In the last year, he has a .393 wOBA, .217 ISO, and .530 slugging percentage against them. He’s been hitting a lot of ground balls lately (51 percent), but he’s been hitting them hard (91 MPH exit velocity). Most importantly, he’s way too cheap: He’s only $3,400 on FD and owns a 99 percent Bargain Rating there.
Miguel Cabrera is batting cleanup for a Tigers team currently implied for 4.8 runs. He’s a no-splits guy and faces a righty today: He has a .397 wOBA, .246 ISO, and .563 slugging percentage in the last year. His recent advanced stats are scary good: In his last 12 games, he’s averaged a batted-ball distance of 220 feet, an exit velocity of 95 MPH, a fly-ball rate of 37 percent, and hard-hit rate of 52 percent. He’s $3,900 on FD and is playing in one of the two early 1:05pm games.
Brian Dozier is projected to bat leadoff for a Twins team currently implied for 4.5 runs. He has ridiculous splits versus lefties: He has a .425 wOBA, .356 ISO, and .659 slugging percentage in the last year. He has a hard-hit rate of 45 percent in his last 13 games, although he has been hitless in his last two. At just $3,800 on FD (99 percent Bargain Rating), he’s an absolute steal, given those splits versus lefties.
Good luck today!
