The two games included in the prime time slate are vastly different. The Saints-Falcons game — being played at the Coors Field of NFL DFS — currently has a total (53.5) nearly 10 points higher than that of Sunday night’s contest between the Bears and Cowboys (44.5). Check out our Vegas dashboard for live totals, spreads, and betting percentages.
Quarterback
Opponent Plus/Minus (DK): +9.2, Matt Ryan
Yes, that statistic is correct. In the past year, the Saints have allowed starting QBs to score 9.2 points over their salary-based expectations (per our Player Models). That Plus/Minus allowed is just astounding.
Not that Ryan needs much help this season. He has been excellent to start 2016, throwing for 730 yards and five touchdowns in his first two games. He’s posted a ridiculous 72.6 percent completion rate, 121.4 QB rating, and high 9.95 adjusted net yards per pass attempt. He’s been amazing to start the year and now he gets the best matchup in football. The only potential negative with Ryan is that his top target and stud wide receiver, Julio Jones, is dealing with a calf injury and isn’t quite 100 percent. Ryan is a fantastic play and should split the majority of QB ownership with Drew Brees.
Red-Zone Opportunities Per Game: 6.5, Dak Prescott
It is highly suboptimal to fade Ryan or Brees in the Superdome. But that’s the beauty of small, two-game prime time slates: Optimization is less important. Sure, Brees has been ridiculously good at home, but Ryan and Brees are both nearly $2,000 more than Prescott this week.
Prescott is still searching for his first passing touchdown of the year but did get one with his feet last week. He has a dream matchup this week, too: While it’s hard to compete with the Saints’ aforementioned Opponent Plus/Minus of +9.2, the Bears have allowed QBs to score 3.7 points over expectations in the past year — the third-highest total in the NFL. The Bears lost about half of their starting defense due to injuries in Week 2, which makes this matchup even more enticing. Dak doesn’t have a passing touchdown yet, but it’s not for lack of opportunities: He has 12 pass attempts in the red zone this year. He doesn’t need to outscore Ryan and Brees. That’s unlikely. He just needs to do well enough to make the extra $2,000 you save in rostering him actually worth something. That’s possible.
Running Back
Pro Trends (FD): 13, Mark Ingram
Ingram has disappointed so far this year:
The biggest reason for the down performances has been opportunity: He’s played on only 65 of the Saints’ 131 offensive snaps (49.6 percent). He’s not really competing with anyone for rushes: He’s owned 60 percent of the Saints’ rush share in 2016. It’s just that he’s in an incredibly pass-heavy offense. Their 35 total rushes this year is the second-lowest mark behind the Redskins’ 29. Ingram has been fine when he’s gotten the ball: He’s averaged 4.2 yards per carry and has a solid 45.1 percent success rate in the last year. This odd dip in volume could certainly continue in Week 3, but given the 53.5-point total and Ingram’s low $6,900 price tag he’s definitely worth the risk.
Touches Inside the 10-Yard Line: 5, Ezekiel Elliott
Although Elliott was benched for fumbling twice in Week 2, the Cowboys have already said that his issues with ball security won’t affect his playing time moving forward. And that is seemingly consistent with the trust they’ve shown on the field in him: He’s tied for second in the NFL for touches inside the 10-yard line with five through two games. Further, he’s gotten them on the ground (three) and the air (two). Zeke is the most expensive RB in the prime time slate and could be underowned if users elect to pay up at both QB and WR.
Wide Receiver
Projected Ceiling (DK): 33.6, Julio Jones
Despite having such high point expectations with his $9,500 DK salary, Julio still boasts the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus among WRs in this slate, behind only the $3,200 Cole Beasley. Julio’s going to be massively owned in this short slate. He’s coming off a performance in which he caught all five of his targets for 106 yards and a touchdown and still seemed like he disappointed. He owns 31.2 percent of the Falcons’ targets and 34.8 percent of their passing touchdowns in the last year. Again, he will be massively owned, but perhaps it’s best to eat chalk here and be unique elsewhere. His ceiling is nearly 10 points higher than any other WR’s.
Fantasy Points Per Snap: 0.49, Willie Snead
Note: Snead is a game-time decision for Monday night.
Snead won’t be sneaky: He’s gotten 17 targets, 14 catches, 226 yards, and two touchdowns in his first two games of 2016. However, by name recognition alone, Snead could be potentially less-owned than he should: His salaries on FD and DK sit below those of household names like Julio Jones, Dez Bryant, Alshon Jeffery, and even his own teammate Brandin Cooks. Snead could be an odd man out in a lot of lineups. That would be a mistake. He’s a big part of Brees’ offense and has received 20.48 percent of his 2016 targets (per this week’s market share report). Snead has the potential to be the highest-scoring WR of the entire slate.
Tight End
Target Market Share: 21.13 percent, Jacob Tamme
The Atlanta Falcons pass catcher who owns the highest percentage of targets so far in 2016 is . . . Jacob Tamme? You’re darn right it is. Tamme has been targeted more than either Jones or Mohamed Sanu and has turned those 16 targets into 11 catches, 126 yards, and a touchdown. The Saints have allowed TEs to score 3.1 points over expectations in the past year — the highest mark in this slate and third overall in the league. The Falcons have a lot of weapons with Julio, Sanu, Devonta Freeman, and Tevin Coleman. If Tamme steals another eight targets and gets a touchdown, DFS players who roster him will gain a large edge on the field.
Red-Zone Touchdowns Per Target: 50 percent, Zach Miller
Miller shouldn’t be high-owned at all. The Bears are currently implied to score at least seven points fewer than any other team in this slate. Jay Cutler is injured and Brian Hoyer is the starting QB, which is why Miller is such a fantastic play. In the last year, he’s scored on 50 percent of his red-zone targets, which is easily the best mark for TEs in the slate. Miller’s gotten targets this year: He owns 16.7 percent of the Bears’ target total through two games. The other tight ends — Tamme, Coby Fleener, and Jason Witten — will all have exorbitant ownership levels. But if the Bears manage to nagivate to the red zone and get Miller a touchdown, he could single-handedly swing all the prime time tournaments.
Good luck this week.
