The Week 3 NFL Dashboard
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Rams at Buccaneers
The Rams travel to Florida as five-point underdogs with an implied Vegas total of only 18.5 points. The Buccaneers are heavy home favorites with a 23.5-point total in a game that projects to have perfect weather.
Los Angeles Rams
Writer: Bryan Mears
QB – Case Keenum
In his two starts this season, Keenum has zero touchdowns and a combined 14.3 DraftKings points. For reference: To hit value, a minimum-salaried player (which Keenum is this week) would need to score 13.9 points. Suffice it to say, Keenum has sucked.
This matchup isn’t awful on paper: The Bucs currently have the sixth-worst defense against the pass, per Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Further, they have allowed QBs a 2.2 Opponent Plus/Minus over the last 12 months. However, Keenum isn’t an average QB. He owns the second-worst adjusted yards per attempt (5.55) in the slate among QBs with at least three career starts. The Rams offense is a mess and that likely won’t change this week.
RB – Todd Gurley
Gurley has been bad this season. He’s accumulated 98 rushing yards on 36 attempts for a miserable 2.72 yards-per-attempt average. It’s hard to blame Gurley for the issues. Before the season, Pro Football Focus ranked all starting offensive lines and the Rams’ unit came in second-to-last. Combine that with the complete non-factor that is Keenum and the Rams passing game, and it’s easy to see why Gurley hasn’t produced or been efficient.
However, a lot of DFS players now dislike Gurley too much. We know that opportunity matters a whole lot for RBs, and Gurley certainly has opportunity: Among RBs in 2016, he has gotten the ninth-most carries (36) and the fifth-highest market share of rushes for his team (75 percent). He’s a bell cow on the farm to which your parents mysteriously take your pets when they’re sick. But, again, there’s too much dislike for Gurley. His FantasyLabs projected ownership is at zero to one percent. He was at 0.7 percent in the FD Sunday Million last week. Gurley’s chances to be a top back this week behind this offensive line aren’t great — but they’re certainly higher than 0.7 percent.
RB – Benny Cunningham
Cunningham is one of the least-utilized backup RBs in the league. He has owned 4.17 percent of the Rams’ rushes and 4.84 percent of their passing targets. If it’s tough to roster Todd Freaking Gurley in DFS because of this offense, Cunningham probably shouldn’t be on your roster.
WR – Tavon Austin
Austin is a DFS punchline right now. I get it: His 21 targets through the first two weeks is tied for the fifth-most among WRs in the league. He has more targets than Allen Robinson, Kelvin Benjamin, Amari Cooper, Stefon Diggs, and Odell Beckham Jr. He has received the highest percentage of his team’s targets of any player in the NFL at 33.87 percent. I get it: It’s funny to see those comparisons and then to look at Austin’s nine total receptions for 63 yards and no touchdowns.
But, like Gurley, Austin is disliked too much. Sure, Austin doesn’t possess Gurley’s talent, but we can’t hammer the point that snaps, targets, and opportunity matter in DFS and then completely ignore a guy getting opportunities if we happen not to believe in him. Regardless of whether he’s a good player — and he may not be (his 9.2 yards-per-reception mark is very low) — he will be a part of the offense and the special teams. And at some point, maybe in our lifetime, the Los Angeles Rams will score a touchdown with Jeff Fisher as their coach. And if that happens, Austin, who owns 55.6 percent of their receiving TDs — the third-highest mark in the league — could be the guy who scores it.
WR – Kenny Britt
I have a limit of 750 words and spent the majority of it on Tavon. No ragrets.
Britt has actually been the best DFS asset for the Rams and has exceeded value in both games in 2016:
The matchup versus Tampa Bay is a solid one: The Bucs have given up 2.3 points over salary-based expectations to WRs in the last year. Britt is second on the team in offensive snaps, playing on 111 of the team’s 123 total. Further, Britt has owned 25.81 percent of their receiving targets. Admittedly, those targets are infrequent, but he did receive 10 last game against the Seahawks and accumulated 94 yards on six receptions. No Ram should be used anywhere near a cash game, but Britt could be a very contrarian option in a large-field guaranteed prize pool.
TE – Lance Kendricks
Kendricks leads the team with 116 total snaps but has received only 12.90 percent of their targets on the year. He did get a bump in that regard last game with six targets, but he’s a contrarian GPP flyer praying for a touchdown.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Writer: Tyler Buecher
QB – Jameis Winston
After a meltdown in Arizona, Winston has a low FantasyLabs projected ownership of two to four percent at home in Week 3. Winston has a tough matchup, as the Rams allow the third-lowest Opponent Plus/Minus to QBs at -3.2. With the Rams allowing just one passing touchdown on the season and 424 passing yards over the past two games, we should temper our expectations for Winston.
RB – Charles Sims
Doug Martin is expected to miss a few weeks with a hamstring injury, and Sims (the Tampa Bay coaching staff has acknowledged) is going to inherit his workload. Sims averaged 1.14 fantasy points per touch last season and should see enough volume in this matchup to warrant cash game consideration on DraftKings. His $4,900 salary gives Sims a nice +6.1 Projected Plus/Minus to go along with his seven Pro Trends. Running backs have historically fared very well in comparable circumstances:
RB – Jacquizz Rodgers
Cut from the Bears earlier this preseason, Rodgers returns to the NFC South to reunite with head coach Dirk Koetter. Rodgers has been a receiving back during his time in the NFL, but will likely see snaps this week only to provide Sims with a breather. Rodgers is inexplicably priced at $5,300 on FD and should be avoided there (and probably everywhere).
WR – Mike Evans
After spending time against both Desmond Trufant and Patrick Peterson the last two weeks, Evans finally gets a good matchup against Coty Sensabaugh. Through the first two games of the season, Sensabaugh ranks as Pro Football Focus’ 85th cornerback, yielding 0.31 fantasy points per route defended. It leaves Evans in a great matchup and as someone to target on FD, where he has an 80 percent Bargain Rating. Evans has thrived from a market share perspective, gaining 29.3 percent of the team’s targets, 32.3 percent of the receiving yards, and 40 percent of the receiving touchdowns. He’s a viable target for both cash and GPP lineups after scoring a touchdown in each of his first two games.
WR – Vincent Jackson
Jackson has seen 16 targets to date but has yet to capitalize on them. He’s likely (per our Matchups tool) to see most of his action against cornerback Trumaine Johnson, who could give V-Jax trouble with his 6’2″ frame. The Rams have done quite well limiting No. 2 receivers, ranking top-six against them last year in DVOA (per FO). With a 37.5 percent catch rate so far this year, V-Jax makes for a risky play until we start seeing him capitalize on the targets he’s garnering.
WR – Adam Humphries
Humphries caught six of eight targets last week for 67 yards in a game in which Tampa Bay fell behind early and was playing catch up for most of the day. He’s run 78 percent of his routes from the slot so far this year (per PFF) and draws a tough matchup on the inside against nickel corner Lamarcus Joyner. After returning five punts last week, he’s also someone we could potentially utilize in the future to stack with the Tampa Bay defense. For now, Humphries remains an interesting player to monitor but one we can’t trust yet.
TE – Cameron Brate
Brate remains the leader in both snaps and targets, but Austin Seferian-Jenkins is right on his heels. ASJ saw one more snap than Brate last week (34 to 33), as both are starting to see action in the offense. The Rams aren’t particularly strong against tight ends, allowing a +1.6 Opponent Plus/Minus to the position over the last 16 games. They also allowed the seventh-most receiving yards to the position last year. Brate is an interesting tournament option, considering that the Buccs rank top-ten in pass play percentage.
TE – Austin Seferian-Jenkins
With three targets through the first two games, ASJ has a FantasyLabs projected ownership of zero to one percent for a reason. While the snaps continue to rise, we’ll need to see more targets in ASJ’s direction before considering him, even with his 96 DK Bargain Rating.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
