The Week 3 NFL Dashboard
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49ers at Seahawks
This divisional game currently has a Vegas total of 40.5 points, which is tied with the Patriots-Texans game for the lowest total of Week 3. The Seahawks are 9.5-point favorites at home. They are implied to score 25.0 points. The 49ers are implied to score 15.5 points — the lowest mark of any team.
San Francisco 49ers
Writer: Bryan Mears
QB – Blaine Gabbert
For all your Gabbert hot taek needs, please direct your attention to this week’s NFL Daily Fantasy Flex podcast: Host Matthew Freedman came with plenty of them.
Gabbert has been sneakily solid this year, hitting value in both of his starts. Against a respected Panthers defense in Week 2, Gabbert threw for 243 yards and two touchdowns. For a minimum-priced QB on both sites, those are solid numbers. Unfortunately for Gabbert, he’s now facing the Seahawks in Seattle. Some things in life change but not the Seahawks defense, which is the top-ranked unit in 2016, per Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Gabbert is probably not an awful QB — at least relative to our initial expectations of him — but he might be awful this week.
RB – Carlos Hyde
Although Hyde’s rushes dipped in Week 2 (14) from Week 1 (23), his market share of rushes didn’t move. He has owned about 54.4 percent of the team’s attempts this year. This week, he has the toughest matchup possible: The Seahawks have held RBs to a -0.9 Opponent Plus/Minus over the last year — the best mark in the league. They have the second-ranked rush DVOA so far in 2016. Hyde’s FantasyLabs projected ownership is at zero to one percent, and for good reason.
RB – Shaun Draughn
Draughn isn’t really playable this week, but note that he has owned 23.53 percent of the 49ers’ rush attempts this season. For reference: He has more attempts this season than more-heralded backups like Charles Sims. His time share data with Hyde is something to monitor as the season progresses.
WR – Torrey Smith
Smith wasn’t efficient last game, catching only three of his 10 targets, but he did finish with 55 receiving yards and a touchdown. The Seahawks have held WRs to a -0.1 Opponent Plus/Minus in the past year, which is the fourth-stingiest mark in the league. Seattle’s pass DVOA this season is ranked third, just as it was last year. Both Smith and Quinton Patton should see time against Richard Sherman. They’re at best flyers in large-field guaranteed prize pools.
WR – Jeremy Kerley
Kerley is a little interesting. He’ll play in his usual slot position, which means that he will avoid Sherman and matchup mostly against Jeremy Lane. Although Kerley’s targets took a dip in Week 2 (11 to 6), he still owns the highest percentage of the 49ers’ targets on the year at 23.88 percent. He is almost minimum-priced at $3,400 on DraftKings, where he boasts a +2.6 Projected Plus/Minus. There’s a scenario in which Hyde can’t get going, Smith is blanketed by Sherman, and Gabbert funnels targets consistently to Kerley. He’s a sneaky (albeit very contrarian and risky) option.
WR – Quinton Patton
Per the FantasyLabs Matchup tool, Patton is set to start opposite Sherman. Patton has seen the second-most snaps on the team (128) and owns 14.93 percent of the 49ers’ targets. However, Patton doesn’t have anything resembling safety or upside, which means that you likely won’t use him in any contest format.
TE – Vance McDonald
It’s hard to roster either McDonald or Garrett Celek, as they’re in a time share through the first two games of the season. McDonald has received 89 snaps to Celek’s 78. And neither is really involved in the passing game: Celek owns 8.96 percent of the 49ers’ targets compared to McDonald’s 7.46 percent. Tight ends have more success than any other position versus Seattle, but these guys just aren’t integrated into the offense enough to be playable in fantasy.
Seattle Seahawks
Writer: Bryan Mears
QB – Russell Wilson
After tearing through the league last year, Wilson has been very poor in 2016:
A lot of that is likely due to an injury: He is reportedly playing through a high ankle sprain. That’s not good news for a quarterback who is such a threat because of his mobility. All that said, Wilson has a dream matchup against a 49ers team that ranked 30th against the pass in 2015. Because of the last two games, Wilson’s salary has dropped quite a bit to $7,100 on DK. His FD salary, however, has oddly risen since the beginning of the year and now sits at $8,700. As a result, he is one of the highest-rated QBs on DK and lowest on FD in the Levitan Player Model. We saw what Cam Newton did against the fast-paced 49ers last weekend. Wilson certainly has that upside as well.
RB – Christine Michael & Thomas Rawls
Having two good running backs is nice for a football team but less nice for DFS players. We officially have a committee in Seattle:
Michael has owned 44.64 percent of the Seahawks’ rush attempts compared to Rawls’ 33.93 percent. Michael has received four targets per game to Rawls’ three. The biggest difference between the two has been snap count: Michael has played on 100 offensive snaps compared to Rawls’ 37. It’s actually pretty incredible that their rushing market shares are so close given that huge disparity in snap count. Michael’s projection this week on DK is only slighty higher than Rawls’ (11.9 versus 9.7), but he does boast a much higher Projected Plus/Minus (+1.5 versus -2.2) because of his lower salary.
WR – Doug Baldwin
Baldwin had a very disappointing outing in Week 2, catching only three of his six targets for 20 receiving yards and no touchdowns. That was only five DK points. There is certainly reason to be worried about the Seahawks offense as a whole — PFF ranked the Seahawks with the league’s worst offensive line prior to the season — and Baldwin will have games in which he’s affected by that. However, he still leads the team in snaps (128) and target share (22.67 percent) through the first two games. He is $6,300 on DK and has a FantasyLabs projected ownership range of five to eight percent.
WR – Tyler Lockett
Lockett is by far the highest-rated Seahawks WR in the DK Levitan Model. The reason is his price tag: He’s only $4,200 and has a projected floor (12.7) and ceiling (17.5) that aren’t that far away from those of Baldwin. Lockett is fourth on the team in snaps and third in target share. He owns 16 percent of the Seahawks’ pass attempts. However, he has already shown this season how explosive he can be when he gets the opportunity. Just last week he turned four targets into four receptions for 99 yards against a stingy Rams defense in limited time due to injury. He’s a very interesting tournament play this week, especially if paired with the Seattle D/ST.
WR – Jermaine Kearse
Kearse is now firmly No. 3 in the pecking order — and could be No. 4 (more on that later) — and this is despite receiving 125 snaps in the last two weeks. Kearse has gotten 17.33 percent of the Seahawks’ targets but that is likely to dip with Lockett’s (as well as Jimmy Graham‘s) increased health and emergence in the offense.
TE – Jimmy Graham
Speaking of Graham: He got 55 snaps in Week 2 after receiving only 17 in limited action in Week 1. Wilson gave him attention, too: He got four targets, which he turned into three receptions for 42 yards. Those numbers are a far cry from those of good-ol’ Saint Jimmy, but they’re a step in the right direction. Note that he held a large target share last season before being injured. There’s a reasonable possibility that the Seahawks get him even more involved this week and in the weeks to come. He is only $3,000 on DK this week, boasts a nice +3.3 Projected Plus/Minus, and holds eight Pro Trends.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
