The Week 3 NFL Dashboard
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Steelers at Eagles
On the road again, the Steelers head to Philadelphia as a 3.5-point favorite. With the weather projected to be in the low 70s and sunny, Vegas also projects this game to have a decent total of 46 points scored.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Writer: John Proctor
QB – Ben Roethlisberger
After everyone doubted Big Ben on the road against Washington and against his divisional opponent, the Bengals, he now has six touchdown passes on the season. Throwing for three touchdown passes in back-to-back weeks, Roethlisberger has surpassed 20 FanDuel points each week. While this is encouraging for Ben, his road splits (even as a favorite, as seen in this Pro Trend) are hard to ignore as he heads to Philadelphia to face off against Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) top-ranked passing defense.
RB – DeAngelo Williams
Leading the NFL in running back snaps has resulted in DeAngelo continuing to be a top-five option at the position. While the Eagles’ passing defense is a top-rated unit, their rushing defense is ranked 20th according to DVOA. The Eagles have allowed a league-high +3.9 Plus/Minus to running backs on DraftKings. With all of that in mind, it is easy to see why Williams is the highest-rated RB in Adam Levitan’s DraftKings Player Model. He easily boasts the highest projected floor of any DK RB at 16.9.
RB – Fitzgerald Toussaint
Toussaint has played only 11.8 percent of running back snaps for the Steelers, getting four carries and one target over the first two weeks. Unless there is an injury to Williams, Toussaint does not have any real fantasy value.
WR – Antonio Brown
The Eagles may be the top-ranked passing defense, but as I examined here, Nolan Carroll is Pro Football Focus’ 93rd-ranked cornerback. According to the FantasyLabs Matchups tool, Brown should spend a lot of his time matched up against Carroll. Brown is currently the second-highest rated receiver in Adam Levitan’s FanDuel Model and has eight Pro Trends. As usual, he is an elite GPP option given his upside: He has the second-highest projected ceiling among WRs in Week 3. Note that he is projected to be owned around 21 to 25 percent in the FD Sunday Million.
WR – Markus Wheaton
Wheaton has returned to practice and should see his first regular season action on Sunday. Unfortunately, Brown and Williams have commanded a combined 49 percent of the targets in Pittsburgh so far. Sammie Coates and Eli Rogers have also emerged to bolster their wide receiver depth. With all of these options fighting over the remaining 51 percent of the targets, volume will be hard to come by. However, Wheaton did show a high ceiling in 2015, specifically with his 38.1 DK points against Seattle.
WR – Eli Rogers
Immediately following an exciting Week 1, Rogers saw his snap share decrease from 62 percent to 55 percent. In a game where Ben threw the same number of passes, Rogers saw less than half as many targets in Week 2. The Steelers run a concentrated offense through Brown and Williams, and Rogers may struggle to find weekly volume.
WR – Sammie Coates
Coates finally did something in Week 2, catching two passes for 97 yards on five targets. However, Coates continues to be wildly inconsistent, grading as PFF’s 60th-ranked wide receiver; he should find himself as the fourth option at best this week. However, he does have GPP value given his big-play potential in this offense.
TE – Jesse James
James played 100 percent of the Steelers’ offensive snaps in Week 2, catching three of five passes for 29 yards and a touchdown. However, with the return of Wheaton, James could see a reduced number of targets in Week 3. He has a low seven percent Bargain Rating on DraftKings.
Eagles
Writer: Kelly McCann
QB – Carson Wentz
Wentz has looked very good in his first two starts for the Eagles. He’s averaged 35.5 passes per game, and while his stats weren’t eye-popping last week, his receivers let him down with some big drops. The Steelers’ pass defense is ranked 14th by Football Outsiders through the first two games of the season. That mediocre ranking falls right in line with the +1.2 Plus/Minus they have allowed to the quarterback position in the past 12 months. Per our Trends tool, inexpensive QBs on DraftKings playing as home dogs against similar defenses have provided a +4.88 Plus/Minus with 76.2 percent Consistency. Wentz doesn’t have a projected floor suitable for cash games, but his FantasyLabs projected ownership and projected ceiling make him a great play in guaranteed prize pools.
RB – Ryan Mathews
There are some concerns about Mathews. For one, he attempted only nine rushes last week and was out-carried in the game by Darren Sproles. Sproles got 41 snaps in the game compared to 21 for Mathews. In addition, Mathews has been non-existent in the passing game thus far, being targeted only once through two games. That said, he has received an amazing 10 total touches inside the 10-yard line this season. That’s five times the number anyone else on the Eagles has seen. Six other players in the NFL have gotten five touches inside the 10, but nobody else even comes to his red-zone volume. If Mathews continues to be heavily fed inside the 10, he’s a sharp play, especially on FanDuel where he holds a 97 percent Bargain Rating.
RB – Darren Sproles
As indicated above, Sproles is getting opportunity. He has the second-most rushing attempts and the third-most targets on the Eagles through two weeks. He’s actually been on the field for more snaps than Mathews in each of the first two games and has out-snapped him by a total count of 79 to 58. The Steelers have the sixth-ranked rush defense in 2016, but rank just 22nd defending RBs as receivers (both per Football Outsiders). As home underdogs against a team that allows RBs to catch but not run, Sproles is a sneaky stacking option to pair with Wentz in GPPs.
WR – Jordan Matthews
Only Mike Evans (24) has seen more than Matthew’s 23 targets this season. His 32.86 percent target share is a massive number. Despite having more total targets, Evans’ target share (30.67 percent) is actually lower than Matthews’. Per our Matchups tool, J-Matt will be covered in the slot by first-round rookie Artie Burns, who has played a total of 41 NFL snaps. The Steelers’ +2.8 Plus/Minus allowed to wide receivers is the highest of the Sunday slate. J-Matt currently has a rating above 90 in Adam Levitan’s Player Model for FanDuel, where Matthews has a 99 percent Bargain Rating. Target share hogs facing comparable defenses have generated a +1.95 Plus/Minus with 60 percent Consistency.
WR – Nelson Agholor
Agholor looks much better than he did as a rookie and Wentz continues to look his way. He’s second on the team to only Matthews in targets. According to our Matchups tool, Nelson will be locked up with Steelers cornerback Ross Cockrell, in what Pro Football Focus considers a negative matchup for Agholor. Cockrell’s 73.5 PFF grade ranks him 39th in the NFL this season. This isn’t a matchup to take lightly, but with FantasyLabs projected ownership of just zero to one percent, Agholor could be paired with Wentz in a contrarian stack for FD’s Sunday Million.
WR – Dorial Green-Beckham
Green-Beckham was targeted four times last week after being targeted just twice in Week 1. So lock him in for six targets this week. It’s called math, people. DGB has been on the field for 58 of the Eagles’ offensive snaps. That’s 16 more than Josh Huff‘s total but nowhere near the 142 and 123 marks of Matthews and Agholor. He’s about as unsafe a play as you could make — but there will be a week where DGB catches two touchdown passes and nobody will see it coming. It could be this week.
TE – Trey Burton
With Zach Ertz out, Burton took over the pass-catching TE role for the Eagles. He was targeted seven times last week, second to only Matthews in the game. Wentz looked to him on third down, and offensive coordinator Frank Reich even dialed up a TE screen from inside the five-yard line for Burton that he converted for a touchdown. With FantasyLabs projected ownership of zero to one percent on both DK and FD this week, Burton is a very intriguing GPP play at TE.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
