The Week 3 NFL Dashboard
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Bears at Cowboys
The Cowboys are currently 7.5-point favorites for their Week 3 matchup against the Bears. The Cowboys are implied to score 26.25 points, while the Bears are implied to score just 18.75. It should be nothing but clear skies in Arlington for this week’s Sunday night matchup. Let’s take a look at how the matchups might play out.
Chicago Bears
Writer: Ian Hartitz
QB – Brian Hoyer
Jay Cutler sprained his thumb during the Bears’ Monday night loss to the Eagles and is expected to miss two to three weeks. He’ll be replaced by Hoyer, who averaged just 0.52 fewer DraftKings points per game than Cutler did in 2015. He’ll look to improve a Bears offense that has averaged just 14 points per game, the third-worst mark in the league. Hoyer is min-priced on both DK and FanDuel, although he faces a Cowboys defense that was third-best in Plus/Minus allowed to quarterbacks in 2015.
RB – Jeremy Langford
Despite being PFF’s lowest-graded eligible running back through two weeks, Langford has posted a +2.39 Plus/Minus on the year and averaged 11.85 DK points. He’s barely averaging three yards per carry and hasn’t been a weapon out of the backfield, but he is a red-zone savant. Langford has received eight carries inside the opponent’s five-yard line in his two-year career and has converted seven of those into touchdowns. Langford received 94 percent of the Bears’ RB carries in Week 1 but just 69 percent in Week 2. Whether or not this downward trend continues remains to be seen, but he could survive another week atop the depth chart against a Cowboys defense that allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to RBs in 2015.
RB – Jordan Howard
Backup Ka’Deem Carey injured his hamstring during the Bears’ Week 2 loss to the Eagles, setting the stage for rookie Jordan Howard to attempt to overtake Langford atop the depth chart. He looked great in Week 2, totaling 22 yards on just three carries. Coach John Fox has indicated that he expects to utilize Howard more as he gets in additional practice. While the sample size is small, Howard’s 6.2 yards-per-touch mark is double Langford’s average. Howard’s five DK Pro Trends are tied for the most among all running backs priced at $3,500 or lower on DK.
WR – Alshon Jeffery
While the loss of Cutler isn’t ideal for Jeffery’s fantasy potential, he should be fine. Hoyer helped DeAndre Hopkins and Josh Gordon post lines of 111-1,521-11 and 87-1,646-9, respectively. Although Jeffery has played only seven career games without Cutler under center, he’s averaged 19 PPR points on a 5.86-86.43-0.71 line. He’s cheaper on FanDuel at $7,900 with a 98 percent Bargain Rating and has two to four percent FantasyLabs projected ownership.
WR – Kevin White
The Bears are trying to get White more involved in the offense. He got a reverse play in Week 2 and has now averaged 6.5 targets per game; however, the production still hasn’t been there. White has averaged just 1.15 fantasy points per target and will now add a new quarterback to his list of unfamiliar features in the Bears offense. PFF has graded White outside of the top-90 receivers through two weeks, yet he’s priced at $4,000 on DK against a Cowboys defense that finished 2015 in the top-eight in both fantasy points and Plus/Minus allowed to wide receivers.
WR – Eddie Royal
Royal has continued to outproduce White on the field, but on a Bears team that has been depleted by injuries and is looking towards the future, Royal will likely continue to be the No. 3 receiver in the offense. He’s priced at $3,500 on DK with a 95 percent Bargain Rating but will likely see a lot of Orlando Scandrick — one of PFF’s top slot-corners in 2014.
WR – Zach Miller
Miller’s target share in the Bears offense has decreased as their weapons have gotten healthy. The days of him consistently receiving six targets a game have disappeared with the return of Jeffery and White. There are worse cheap tight ends on the slate, however, as Miller’s +4.0 Projected Plus/Minus is the highest among all tight ends priced under $3,000 on DK. He has a tough matchup against a Cowboys defense that allowed the second-fewest average fantasy points to tight ends in 2015, led by safety Byron Jones — PFF’s seventh-highest graded safety.
Dallas Cowboys
Writer: Kelly McCann
QB – Dak Prescott
Prescott has been steady through the first two games of the season. While the stats may not jump off the page, he has attempted 75 passes in a run-heavy offense through the first two weeks. For reference, his 75 attempts are more than the totals of Ben Roethlisberger, Cam Newton, Matt Ryan, and Aaron Rodgers. This week, Prescott gets a Bears defense that allowed a +3.7 Plus/Minus to opposing quarterbacks in the last year and just lost half of their starting defense to injury. Gone are 2015 sack leader Lamarr Houston, their best coverage linebacker in Danny Trevathan, and nose tackle Eddie Goldman. Two cornerbacks, including primary slot-corner Bryce Callahan, are in the concussion protocol. You can’t make this stuff up, folks. The Cowboys’ implied point total of 26.25 is tied for third-highest on the Sunday slate.
RB – Ezekiel Elliott
Elliott’s 41 rushing attempts are the fifth-most in the NFL and a whopping 68.33 percent of the Cowboys’ total rushes. He’s one of just seven players to have five or more touches inside the 10-yard line. He was also benched after fumbling twice last week and watched as backup Alfred Morris handled all the carries for the final seven minutes of the game, including what ended up being the game-winning touchdown. Owner Jerry Jones has said the fumbles won’t affect Elliott’s workload going forward. As indicated above, the Bears defense has lost some key pieces and the Cowboys are at home and favored by 7.5 points. Per our Trends tool, running backs in comparable spots on FanDuel have played reliably well.
RB – Lance Dunbar
Dunbar has been on the field for just 26 of the Cowboys’ 146 offensive snaps. Up to this point of the season, Dunbar has a 5.48 percent target share. Playing as more than a touchdown favorite at home, this doesn’t seem like a spot where Dunbar would be frequently targeted in the passing game.
WR – Dez Bryant
Bryant was targeted a team-high 12 times in a tough matchup against the Redskins’ corners last week. This week, per our Matchups tool, Bryant gets to line up against a hobbled Kyle Fuller, who has been inactive for the first two weeks of the season. Despite having a top-15 projected ceiling on DK, Bryant has a FantasyLabs projected ownership of just two to four percent. In the last eight games that the Cowboys have had similar implied point totals, Bryant has generated a +9.03 Plus/Minus with 75.0 percent Consistency. Firing him up as a low-owned GPP play is not the worst idea.
WR – Cole Beasley
Beasley is currently the No. 2 rated WR in CSURAM88’s DK Player Model. His targets dipped from 12 to six in Week 2, but his 24.66 percent target share remains the highest of any Cowboys player. Per the RotoViz Game Splits App, Beasley has gotten more targets and been more productive all around in games he has played without Tony Romo. His $3,200 salary and Projected Plus/Minus of +4.6 on DK puts him squarely in cash-game consideration this week.
WR – Terrance Williams
Williams may be on the field for a lot of snaps, but up until this point of the season, Prescott has not been inclined to throw him the ball. Through two games he’s been targeted just four times. He wasn’t targeted at all against the Redskins despite playing 44 of the Cowboys’ 68 offensive snaps. Unless the Cowboys demonstrate a fundamental change in his usage, Williams is nothing but a desperation lottery ticket.
TE – Jason Witten
Witten has played every one of the Cowboys’ 146 offensive snaps this season. He’s been targeted 18 times in the first two games, which is tied with Jordan Reed for the most targets among tight ends. The Bears have allowed a +2.1 Plus/Minus to opposing TEs in the past 12 months and are ranked 25th defending TEs this season (per Football Outsiders). With major injury issues at both linebacker and defensive back for the Bears this week, it’s safe to say that Witten will be covered by a depth player in a matchup that Prescott should be willing to exploit. In the last 10 games that Witten has been a home favorite, he’s generated a juicy +6.97 Plus/Minus with excellent 80.0 percent Consistency on DK. Lock and load Witten in all formats this week.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
