The Week 3 NFL Dashboard
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Lions at Packers
The Packers enter their first game with the Lions this year as 7.5-point favorites. Their implied total of 27.25 points is the second-highest in Week 3. The Lions’ implied total is just 19.75 points and they’ll be without starting running back Ameer Abdullah. There’s a good chance of showers at Lambeau Field, but that won’t stop these two pass-happy offenses. Let’s take a look at the matchup.
Detroit Lions
Writer: Ian Hartitz
QB – Matthew Stafford
Stafford’s mediocre stat line against the Titans in Week 2 would have been bolstered if even one of his three additional touchdown passes weren’t called back due to a penalty. Regardless, he’s still off to a strong start in 2016: His 22.8 DraftKings points per game ranks ninth among all quarterbacks. Stafford will have to beat history this Sunday, however, as he’s struggled in games with a similar implied team total:
As our Trends tool shows, Stafford has posted a -1.74 Plus/Minus with 33.3 percent Consistency and averaged under 15 DraftKings points in his nine games over the past three seasons with a similar implied team total. He’s one of the bottom-10 rated quarterbacks in our Tournament Model on FanDuel, although he has a FantasyLabs projected ownership of just two to four percent.
RB – Theo Riddick
Riddick will take over as the Lions’ No. 1 back this week, as Abdullah was placed on the Injured Reserve with a foot injury. Don’t expect Riddick to start getting 15 carries a game, however, as the Lions have given Riddick 10 carries or more in a game just once in his career. Despite his deserved status as one of the better receiving backs in the league, he’s averaged just 3.2 yards per carry in his career. His 21 to 25 percent FantasyLabs projected ownership on DK is tied for the highest of any running back in Week 3, and he’ll face a Packers defense that finished in the top-eight in Plus/Minus allowed to running backs in 2015.
RB – Dwayne Washington
Washington stands 6’2”, weighs 226 lbs., and can fly: He ran a 4.44-second 40-yard dash and exploded for a 28-yard rush in Week 2. Washington failed to produce much in college, never totaling over 800 total yards or 10 touchdowns in his three seasons at Washington. He’s a very risky play while the Lions’ backfield is still a mystery, but he is much better suited to run in between the tackles than Riddick.
RB – Zach Zenner
Zenner could steal carries away from Washington and Riddick. He’s a freak athlete, as evidenced by his 134.5 SPARQ-x score, which is in the 95th percentile among all running backs. He’ll battle with Washington for the team’s goal-line back role and could be a fantasy option in the coming weeks if he earns a spot in the new-look Lions offense.
WR – Marvin Jones
Jones has taken over the Lions’ No. 1 receiver role with a hot start to 2016:
His impressive +6.97 Plus/Minus has resulted in 17.65 DraftKings points per game. Jones’ 21 targets are five more than Golden Tate has seen and puts him on pace to hit 168 targets – a total Megatron only hit once in his career. He may see a lot of Quinten Rollins, PFF’s 34th-highest graded cornerback in 2016. Jones’ seven DK Pro Trends are tied for the most among all wide receivers and his 24-point projected ceiling is the highest among all receivers priced at $6,500 or lower on DK.
WR – Golden Tate
Through two weeks it is clear that Tate has lost his status as the Lions’ No. 1 receiver to Jones. Jones leads the team in targets and Tate has been brutally inefficient with his opportunities. He’s never been a pure downfield receiver, but his 3.38 yards-per-target average is the second-worst rate behind only Tavon Austin‘s among all receivers with at least 10 targets. This has been partially due to Tate’s own ineffectiveness after the catch. His fifth-ranked 4.2 YAC average in 2015 has fallen to 2.1 this season. Things won’t get easier in Week 3 against a Packers defense that finished 2015 in the top-10 in Plus/Minus allowed to wide receivers.
WR – Anquan Boldin
Boldin received seven targets in Week 2 but will likely see his role in the offense fluctuate from week to week. He’s averaged a strong 2.13 fantasy points per target, but he’s behind Jones, Tate, Ebron and Riddick in Stafford’s pecking order. This shouldn’t change anytime soon, as Stafford leads the league with 27.7 percent of his passes going to running backs over the past 12 months. Boldin is priced at $4,200 on DK with a 91 percent Bargain Rating.
TE – Eric Ebron
Ebron missed Wednesday’s practice with a back injury, although the severity is not yet known. He’s had a great start to 2016, posting a +5.79 Plus/Minus and averaging 12.45 DraftKings points. Ebron has been Stafford’s most-targeted receiver inside the 10-yard line and his 2.07 fantasy points-per-target mark is the eighth-best among all tight ends. The offense has called 42 passing plays a game, a total that may rise with Abdullah headed to the IR. Ebron will have a tough matchup against a Packers secondary that is ranked as the fifth-best in the league by PFF.
Green Bay Packers
Writer: Ian Hartitz
QB – Aaron Rodgers
Through two weeks, PFF has graded Rodgers as the worst quarterback in the league. PFF has a history of being unkind to him, most notably handing him a -0.8 overall grade after he threw for 333 yards, five touchdowns, and zero interceptions in 2015. Rodgers has still averaged 22.99 DraftKings points this season — eighth among all quarterbacks, but this has been inflated by his two rushing touchdowns. History tells us to ‘relax’ based on Rodgers’ first two sub-par performances of 2016, as he’s never performed very well on the road. In 18 road games over the past three seasons, he has posted a -0.59 Plus/Minus with 38.9 percent Consistency and averaged just 19.36 DraftKings points. At home, he’s posted a +5.25 Plus/Minus and averaged 25.12 DraftKings points. Overall, Rodgers has nearly identical home/away splits compared to Drew Brees:
He’ll head back to Lambeau this Sunday to take on a Lions defense that has allowed a touchdown on 4.75 percent of their plays over the previous 12 months — the third-highest mark in the league.
RB – Eddie Lacy
Lacy has averaged a respectable 4.3 yards per carry this season, but this falls to 3.3 if you remove his 28-yard scamper against the Jaguars in Week 1. Much like last season, he has struggled to find the end zone and has averaged a brutal 0.48 fantasy points per opportunity. If history is any indication, things could change for Lacy in Week 3, as he’s balled out in the past with a similar implied point total:
As our Trends tool shows, Lacy has posted a +6.76 Plus/Minus with 83.3 percent Consistency and averaged 20.68 DraftKings points in his six games with a similar implied total. He’ll have to get it done against a tough Lions run defense that finished 2015 in the top-10 in Plus/Minus allowed to running backs.
RB – James Starks
Starks has totaled just 11 rushing yards on 10 carries and isn’t poised for a bigger role in the offense despite Lacy’s struggles. His $4,000 salary on DraftKings comes with a -1.3 Projected Plus/Minus — the second-lowest projection among all running backs priced at or above $4,000.
WR – Jordy Nelson
Nelson is getting fed the ball, but he’s been very inefficient with those targets: His 5.2 yards-per-target average doesn’t rank in the top-60 among all wide receivers. Still, his five red-zone targets are tied for the second-most among all wide receivers and he’s managed to convert two of those into touchdowns. Nelson has six DK Pro Trends, but his nine to 12 percent FantasyLabs projected ownership is one of the highest ranges among all receivers priced over $7,000 on DK. He’ll likely see a lot of Lions cornerback Darius Slay — PFF’s 13th-highest graded cornerback in 2016.
WR – Randall Cobb
The return of Nelson was supposed to open up the offense and produce more explosive plays for Cobb, but thus far this hasn’t been the case. He’s averaged just 1.47 fantasy points per target and is ranked 55th among all wide receivers in DK points per game. There is evidence that a change in performance could be coming, as Cobb has historically performed better at home, averaging over two more DK points in Lambeau than on the road over the past three seasons. Additionally, the Lions have allowed a touchdown on 4.75 percent of their defensive plays over the past 12 months — the third-highest mark in the league.
WR – Davante Adams
Adams has just one fewer target than Cobb in 2016 but has the lowest catch percentage among all Packers receivers. Rodgers has averaged under 5.5 yards per attempt when targeting Adams this season and there is a lack of evidence that Adams is capable of producing big games in this offense. In eight games with eight or more targets, he has averaged under 13 PPR points. Adams also has just two touchdowns in his last 18 games. The No. 3 receiver in the Packers offense sounds great in theory, but so far that offense is averaging just 20.5 points per game and is calling a below-average number of pass plays a game.
TE – Jared Cook
Cook was more involved in the offense in Week 2 but averaged only 5.17 yards on his six targets. His 125.6 SPARQ-x score is more of a curse than a blessing at this point, as Cook just can’t seem to become a consistent factor in an offense no matter who is throwing him the ball. If there were ever a week for him to break out, it might be this one, as the Raiders have allowed 5.2 points above salary-based expectation to tight ends in the last year — the highest total of any defense. Cook’s 11.3-point projected ceiling is among the highest for all tight ends priced under $3,000 on DK.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
