The Week 3 NFL Dashboard
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Raiders at Titans
This game currently has a 47-point Vegas total. The Titans are 1.5-point home favorites implied to score 24.25 points. The Raiders are implied to score 22.75 points as road underdogs.
Oakland Raiders
Writer: Joe Holka
QB – Derek Carr
With 83 pass attempts in two games — the eighth-most in the league — Carr has also been very efficient, boasting a 107.4 passer rating through the first two weeks. He has tasty matchup against a Titans defense that finished 2015 as bottom-five in Plus/Minus allowed to quarterbacks. Carr is the sixth-highest rated DraftKings quarterback in our Tournament Model and his 33.8-point projected ceiling is tied for the eighth-highest among all quarterbacks.
RB – Latavius Murray
Last year, Murray received 307 total touches, fourth-most in the NFL. Surprisingly, through two weeks, Murray has just a 43.14 percent rushing market share; however, he does have 60 percent of the Raiders’ red-zone carries. Oakland seems committed to getting other players involved and Murray is losing volume; he had just eight rush attempts in Week 2. This week, he’s facing a Titans defense that finished 2015 in the top-12 in both average fantasy points and Plus/Minus allowed to running backs. He’s priced as the RB15 on DK after scoring touchdowns in back-to-back weeks, but his projected floor of 9.1 points is much lower than cheaper players surrounding him. He’s a risky play this week but does come with only two to four percent projected ownership in GPPs.
RB – DeAndre Washington
Although he had just one less carry than Murray last week, Washington is still a part of a Raiders backfield that is extremely muddled with Olawale and Richard also in the mix. It is hard to trust any player projected for just three points on DraftKings in a four-way committee, regardless of his price.
WR – Amari Cooper
Cooper has looked fantastic this year, leading the Raiders with 11 targets, 137 yards, and a massive 24.39 percent target market share on a team that has spread it around so far on offense. Cooper has been targeted twice in the red zone, good for an 18.2 percent market share there.
According to our Matchups tool, Cooper has a plus matchup in Week 3 lined up against Perrish Cox, PFF’s 102nd-graded cornerback so far this season. Cooper dropped a 7-115-0 stat line on 12 targets against Tennessee last season, and the Titans have already given up 20.2 and 22.8 DK points to Stefon Diggs and Marvin Jones, respectively, through the first two weeks. Cooper has the 11th-highest projected ceiling on the slate for wide receivers on FanDuel and boasts a 97 percent Bargain Rating there.
WR – Michael Crabtree
Crabtree finished last year 11th in total targets (146), 18th in target share (24.3 percent), 11th in total touchdowns (9), and led the Raiders in red-zone targets (13). According to our Matchups tool, Crabtree will line up primarily against corner Jason McCourty in Week 3; PFF grades McCourty as the 65th-best CB this season. Crabtree has topped 70 receiving yards just once in the last 10 contests. He is a much better value on FanDuel, where he is $6,400 and has a 94 percent Bargain Rating.
At just two to four percent projected ownership in the FD Sunday Million, Crabtree could have value in GPPs; he is still a red-zone threat (25 percent touchdown success rate in the RZ) and has a solid projected ceiling of 15.4 points.
WR – Seth Roberts
Roberts was out-snapped by Cooper by 232 snaps last year but ended with more red-zone targets (nine to seven) on the season. He currently leads the team with a 33.3 percent red-zone target share on 75 percent of the snaps in that area. Unfortunately, that’s about all he does, as he has just five receptions on the season for 44 yards. He is an extremely-volatile GPP play who is only going to hit value if he gets in the end zone. That said, per Football Outsiders, the Titans were the eighth-worst team last year against No. 3 and other supplementary wide receivers.
TE – Clive Walford
Walford was the third-highest rated tight end in the FanDuel Tournament Model last week and broke out for 14 FanDuel points on a 15.55 percent target share. Walford showed promise near the end of last season, but there is limited targets with Cooper and Crabtree (41.46 percent target share combined) so involved in the offense. Tennessee gave up the sixth-most FanDuel points to tight ends last season (11.5 per game) and gave up a 7-96-1 line to Kyle Rudolph in Week 1. Walford has the eighth-highest Projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel this week but is a risky GPP play even at a low two to four percent ownership projection given the Raiders’ target distribution.
Tennessee Titans
Writer: Ian Hartitz
Researcher: Zachary Rabinovitz
QB – Marcus Mariota
There’s been a lot to like about Mariota through two weeks. He’s surprisingly thrown the ball 37 times per game, but he’s been accurate, ranking fourth and fifth among all quarterbacks in red-zone and deep-ball completion percentage, respectively. Mariota is ranked just 17th in average DraftKings points but has a lot of factors going his way against the Raiders. He’s performed very well historically in games with a similar implied total:
As our Trends tool shows, Mariota has posted a +5.03 Plus/Minus and averaged 20.57 DraftKings points in his four games with an implied total of 22 or more. He’s the fourth-highest rated QB in our Tournament Model and faces a Raiders defense that was the eighth-worst in Plus/Minus allowed to the position in 2015.
RB – DeMarco Murray
At first glance, it would appear that Murray has thrived in the Titans’ exotic smashmouth offense. His average of 24.1 DraftKings points per game is the fifth-highest average among all running backs and his 5.2 yards per carry ranks 10th. However, remove one 67-yard rush and Murray’s average yards per carry dips to just 2.66. The struggle doesn’t appear to be due to blocking, as PFF has ranked the Titans offensive line as the fourth-best run blocking unit in the league through two weeks. Murray is still the Titans’ lead back, although he’ll need to improve his efficiency to hold off Derrick Henry. The duo will face off against Khalil Mack and a Raiders front seven that was ranked as the fifth-best in the league by PFF.
RB – Derrick Henry
Henry’s snaps went up by 14.93 percent in Week 2 and he received 10 touches. He’s averaged a strong 5.5 yards per touch and is trending in the right direction in the offense. Although the Devonta Freeman/Tevin Coleman combo shredded the Raiders in Week 2, Henry’s usage still isn’t at a high enough spot to warrant serious fantasy consideration. He’s priced at $3,700 on DK with a low 4.8-point projected floor.
WR – Tajae Sharpe
PFF has graded Sharpe as the 37th-best receiver in the league through two weeks, although he’s still averaging just 1.22 fantasy points per target. He’s been targeted by Mariota a team-high 18 times but is no longer a secret across the league: He is tied for first among all wide receivers with a +$1,700 price increase since Week 1. He’s underachieved, as his air yards have projected him to score an additional 4.5 PPR points per game, but he has a tough matchup against the Raiders secondary that was ranked ninth by PFF.
WR – Rishard Matthews
Although Matthews’ targets went up by 50 percent in Week 2, he’s still averaging just 6.6 yards per target. That is very bad. He is cheap on DK with a $3,300 price tag and a strong +3.1 Projected Plus/Minus, but his upside is low in the Titans offense. It doesn’t help that Matthews could see a lot of David Amerson — PFF’s eight-highest graded corner in 2016.
WR – Andre Johnson
Johnson received only one target in Week 2 but converted it into a game-winning touchdown. He has a Projected Plus/Minus of -3.5 and his 1.8-point projected floor is among the lowest of any receiver in Week 3.
TE – Delanie Walker
Walker did not practice for the Titans on Wednesday for an unknown reason. After a down Week 1, he caught all six of his targets against the Lions and is currently fourth among all tight ends in average DraftKings points. Coach Mike Mularkey said all offseason that the offense would be run-first, but through two weeks they’ve called the 12th-most pass plays in the league. Walker is on pace for just 88 targets, although this may not continue considering Mariota leads all quarterbacks with 34 percent of his passes having gone to tight ends over the past 12 months. Walker has a dream matchup Sunday against a Raiders defense that finished in the bottom-three in both fantasy points and Plus/Minus allowed to tight ends in 2015.
News Updates
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