Today brings three day games starting at 3:10pm ET. The remaining 12 are in the regular 7:05pm main slate. Let’s jump in.
Pitchers
Nationals ace Max Scherzer faces a Marlins team currently implied by Vegas for 3.1 runs. He’s been impressive lately:
It’s important to remember that the graph above is a Plus/Minus graph. It by definition includes salary-based expectations, so that graph indicates that Scherzer, despite his very high salaries and thus high expectations, has still been consistently hitting value lately. There are, however, concerning parts of his resume: In his last two starts, he’s allowed a batted-ball distance of 232 feet, an exit velocity of 90 miles per hour, and a hard-hit rate of 41 percent. Those aren’t devastating marks, but they are a bit higher than we’d normally want out of a high-priced ace. Regardless, he has the most upside of any pitcher: His 9.1 K Prediction is the highest today by a whopping 1.2 strikeouts.
Indians righty Corey Kluber faces a Royals team currently implied for 3.1 runs. He’s been just as impressive as Scherzer lately . . .
. . . and he boasts consistent advanced stats: He’s allowed a batted-ball exit velocity of 89 MPH and a hard-hit rate of 25 percent in his last three starts. He’s third in price on both sites, behind Scherzer and Chris Sale, but the differences on DraftKings and FanDuel are enormous. At $11,900 on DK, he’s at least $1,400 cheaper than those two guys, whereas his $10,900 FD salary is a savings of only $100. Translation: He will be higher-owned on DK and lower-owned on FD. His 6.9 K Prediction is the fourth-best mark today.
White Sox southpaw Chris Sale faces a Phillies team currently implied for 3.4 runs. He’s right there in price with Scherzer and Kluber on FD at $11,000, but he’s all the way up to $14,000 on DK — $700 higher than Scherzer and $2,100 more than Kluber. The price is understandable. Philly’s projected lineup owns the worst Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) in the slate at .253 and Sale has double-digit strikeouts in three of his last five games. However, there are two red flags. First, Sale’s recent advanced stats are bad: He’s allowed a batted-ball distance of 218 feet, an exit velocity of 93 MPH, and a hard-hit rate of 43 percent in his last two games. Second, his 7.3 K Prediction, while third-best today, is a little low for a $14,000 DK pitcher. Given those factors, he’s more of an option for guaranteed prize pools.
Cubs righty John Lackey faces a Reds team currently implied for 3.5 runs. Cincinnati’s projected lineup owns the second-lowest wOBA in the slate at .282. Lackey struggled a bit last game, allowing nine hits and three home runs versus the Brewers. His advanced stats reflect those struggles: He’s averaged a batted-ball distance of 220 feet and an exit velocity of 93 MPH in his last two starts. However, this matchup is much easier, he’s a massive -236 favorite, and his 7.9 K Prediction is the second-best mark in the slate. If you want to jump down from the three high-priced guys listed above, Lackey is probably the safest option.
Yankees righty Masahiro Tanaka faces a Rays team currently implied for 3.3 runs. His last game against the Red Sox was bad . . .
. . . but that’s why our recent advanced stats are so helpful. His subpar fantasy outing wasn’t because of poor pitching. He allowed four hits and a single run in seven innings pitched. The issue was that he got no strikeouts against a Boston team that just doesn’t strike out very often (.200 SO/AB rate). In fact, Tanaka’s recent advanced stats are elite: He’s allowed a batted-ball distance of 169 feet, an exit velocity of 85 MPH, and a hard-hit rate of 18 percent, and he’s induced ground balls at a 65 percent clip. He pitched a gem against the Red Sox in reality, just not in fantasy. Thankfully, our advanced stats can bridge the gap and put us on a potentially low-owned play today.
Speaking of elite advanced stats: Dodgers righty Kenta Maeda has also been impressive recently. In his last two starts, he’s averaged a batted-ball distance of 194 feet, an exit velocity of 84 MPH, a fly-ball rate of 20 percent, and a hard-hit rate of 26 percent. Half of that sample is a Chase Field game, which makes his stats even more impressive. Today he faces a Giants team currently implied for 3.3 runs. His 5.4 K Prediction is lower than the marks of similarly-priced pitchers in Lackey (7.9), Tanaka (6.6), and Zack Greinke (6.7), but his advanced stats suggest that he’s in awesome form right now.
Speaking of Greinke: He faces a Padres team currently implied for 3.6 runs. San Diego isn’t a good hitting team. Its projected lineup has a wOBA of .282, the third-worst mark in the slate. This is a good matchup for Greinke, and, honestly, he needs it:
His last four games have come against the Dodgers and Giants and he’s struggled: He’s allowed a batted-ball exit velocity of 93 MPH and a hard-hit rate of 44 percent in his last two. Greinke is oddly priced on FD ($9,700) but is a little more reasonable on DK ($8,300). There’s a ton of risk here, but with all of the pitchers mentioned above his ownership should be minuscule.
Stacks
Because we’ve been talking about Coors stacks a lot lately, let’s exclude them today. That doesn’t mean they aren’t good plays. They definitely are: The Cardinals (6.7) and the Rockies (5.8) own the highest implied totals today. You should probably roster them if you’re playing in the early or all-day slates.
If we exclude that game, the highest-rated five-man DK stack (per the CSURAM88 Model) is a 1-2-3-4-5 straight stack of the Orioles:
They are currently implied for 5.1 runs.
On FD, the highest-rated four-man stack is a Red Sox 1-3-4-8 grouping:
Dustin Pedroia got a rest day yesterday but is back in our projected lineup at the leadoff spot. You guys know how I feel about David Ortiz. The Red Sox are currently implied for 5.0 runs.
Batters
Trea Turner has struggled a bit lately. He’s gone hitless in the last two games and his advanced stats aren’t amazing: He’s averaged a batted-ball distance of 212 feet, an exit velocity of 89 MPH, and a hard-hit rate of 17 percent. However, his long-term marks are still excellent: He has a .419 wOBA, .281 Isolated Power (ISO), and .631 slugging percentage versus fellow righties in the last year. He provides a lot of safety because he can score fantasy points in so many ways: He owns the second-highest SB/G mark (.380) in the slate. The Nationals are implied for 4.5 runs, so Trea should go underowned.
Outfielder Cameron Maybin is projected to bat leadoff for a Tigers team currently implied for 5.2 runs. He’s $4,000 on DK and only $3,300 on FD. He doesn’t have ridiculous long-term splits: He owns a .352 wOBA, .091 ISO, and .424 slugging percentage in the last year versus fellow righties. However, he’s just way too cheap batting first for a team facing Jose Berrios, who owns the worst WHIP (2.021) and HR/9 mark (2.274) in the slate.
Third baseman Yulieski Gurriel is projected to bat second for an Astros team currently implied for 4.7 runs. The 32-year-old Cuban baseball star — signed by the Astros this year — has very solid marks against righties: He boasts a .392 wOBA, .196 ISO, and .549 slugging percentage in the last year. He’s been hitting the ball well lately: In his last 13 games, he’s averaged a batted-ball distance of 229 feet, an exit velocity of 91 MPH, a fly-ball rate of 42 percent, and a hard-hit rate of 44 percent. He’s dirt cheap on DK ($2,600) and has dual-eligibility there (1B/3B).
Carlos Gomez is projected to bat leadoff for a Rangers team currently implied for 5.6 runs — the highest total (tied with the Cubs) in the slate, not including the Coors Field teams. Gomez has really poor splits in the last year against righties: He has a .290 wOBA, .150 ISO, and .367 slugging percentage. However, he’s on a bit of a heater right now:
And his advanced stats match: He’s averaged a batted-ball distance of 220 feet and an exit velocity of 93 MPH in his last 11 games. At only $3,500 on FD, he’s a worthwhile risk given his valuable batting spot and success lately.
Good luck!
