Today we have a regular ‘ol 15-game main slate at 7:05pm ET. Let’s jump in.
Pitchers
Rich Hill faces a Giants team currently implied by Vegas for 3.2 runs. He’s one of the more intriguing pitchers today. His results have been solid overall . . .
. . . but his recent advanced stats are pretty awful. In his last two starts, he’s allowed a batted-ball distance of 228 feet, an exit velocity of 95 MPH, a fly-ball rate of 58 percent, and a hard-hit rate of 45 percent. Ouch. However, Vegas believes in him in this spot and his 7.1 K Prediction is a top-five mark today. Get more of your exposure to him on FanDuel, where he is $9,400 and boasts a 95 percent Bargain Rating.
Marlins ace Jose Fernandez faces a Nationals team currently implied for 3.2 runs. He’s been a little all over the place lately:
And his advanced stats are concerning, especially since the sample includes the 75-point FD gem two games ago. In his last two games, he’s allowed a batted-ball distance of 236 feet, an exit velocity of 93 MPH, a fly-ball rate of 44 percent, and a hard-hit rate of 36 percent. I can understand wanting not to pay his high price tags — $12,500 on DraftKings or $11,300 on FD — but he definitely has the most upside of any pitcher: His 9.8 K Prediction is the best mark in the slate by a whopping 1.4 strikeouts.
Cubs lefty Jon Lester faces a Reds team currently implied for 3.2 runs. He’s been incredible lately:
And unlike the two guys mentioned above, he has awesome advanced stats: He’s allowed a batted-ball distance of 174 feet, an exit velocity of 86 MPH, a fly-ball rate of 28 percent, and a hard-hit rate of only 12 percent — and he’s induced ground balls at a 53 percent clip. Those are all elite, elite marks. He is a massive -300 favorite and boasts the second-highest K Prediction at 8.4. He’s the easy, clear-cut option today in cash games.
Toronto lefty J.A. Happ faces a Mariners team currently implied for 3.8 runs. Happ has been solid lately, posting an average FD Plus/Minus of +3.80 on 60 percent Consistency in his last 10 starts. He’s allowed a high exit velocity in his last two starts (92 MPH), but his other stats (29 percent hard-hit rate, for example) are less concerning. He gets umpire Paul Nauert behind home plate, who has historically added 1.7 FD points over expectations to pitchers. Happ’s 6.0 K Prediction is solid enough and he boasts a 66 percent Bargain Rating on DK. He should go underowned and could be a sneaky play in guaranteed prize pools.
Rays lefty Drew Smyly faces a Yankees team currently implied for 3.8 runs. He’s another guy who is a better value on DK, as highlighted by his 63 percent Bargain Rating there. He had some really rough games, but bounced back nicely in his last start:
Considering those bad games, his recent advanced stats are actually pretty solid: He’s allowed an exit velocity of 88 MPH and a hard-hit rate of 33 percent. He’s admittedly allowed a lot of fly balls (47 percent) but they haven’t been hit very hard and he’s allowed a low percentage of line drives (eight percent). His 6.2 K Prediction is a far cry from Fernandez’s but is actually the seventh-best mark in the slate.
On the other side of that matchup, Yankees righty Michael Pineda faces a Rays team currently implied for 3.8 runs. Looking at his recent Plus/Minus graph might make you nauseous:
But interestingly his recent advanced stats are really good: In his last two starts, he’s allowed a batted-ball distance of 189 feet, an exit velocity of 89 MPH, a fly-ball rate of 30 percent, and a hard-hit rate of 25 percent. His 8.1 K Prediction is the third-highest mark today. I get it: It’s hard to invest in him given his recent results. But there are a lot of positive indicators here and he’ll have minuscule ownership. That’s a nice combination for tournaments.
Giants righty Johnny Cueto faces a Dodgers team currently implied for 3.9 runs. He’s been excellent in his last two starts:
His advanced stats are solid, too: He’s allowed a batted-ball distance of 200 feet, an exit velocity of 90 MPH, a fly-ball rate of 27 percent, and a hard-hit rate of 27 percent in his last two starts. He’s not a big strikeout guy (7.749 SO/9), but because the Dodgers strike out often (.272 SO/AB), Cueto has a 6.7 K Prediction, the sixth-best mark today. He’s an intriguing guy in tournaments, especially if Hill (his opposition) is one of the higher-owned pitchers.
The last guy I’ll mention is Astros righty Joe Musgrove, who is facing an Oakland team currently implied for 3.8 runs. He is coming off a nice 43-point FD outing and boasts decent-enough advanced stats: He’s allowed an exit velocity of 89 MPH and a hard-hit rate of 31 percent in his last two games. He doesn’t have a ton of K upside — he has a K Prediction of 5.8 — but he gets umpire Marty Foster behind home plate, who has historically added 1.6 DK points over expectations to pitchers. Musgrove is a better bargain on DK (69 percent Bargain Rating) and could be a low-owned SP2 option in tournaments.
Stacks
Starting with FanDuel, the top-rated four-man stack in the CSURAM88 Model is a 1-3-4-7 stack of the Rockies.
The Rockies are currently implied for 5.6 runs.
On DraftKings, the top-rated five-man stack (not counting the Rockies) belongs to their opponent, the Cardinals:
The Cardinals are currently implied for 6.4 runs. The Coors Field game will bring high ownership in tournaments and for good reason. However, let’s discuss some non-Coors batters.
Batters
Third baseman Jonathan Villar is projected to bat leadoff for a Brewers team currently implied for 4.6 runs. He has solid splits versus lefties: He has a .391 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA), .196 Isolated Power (ISO), and .516 slugging percentage against them in the last year. He faces the Pirates’ Steven Brault, who owns the slate’s second-worst WHIP at 1.691. What makes Villar an elite tournament option every day is his stolen-base upside: His .380 SB/G mark is the highest in the slate.
Carlos Santana is another switch hitter projected to bat leadoff today. He has a .356 wOBA, .261 ISO, and .489 slugging percentage in the last year against righties and faces the Royals’ Edinson Volquez. Santana has been hitting the ball well lately: He’s posted a 218-foot batted-ball distance, a 91-MPH exit velocity, and a 38 percent hard-hit rate in his last 14 games. He’s very cheap on FD at $3,600. The Indians are currently implied for 5.0 runs.
Let’s continue the leadoff trend. Adam Eaton is projected to bat first for a White Sox team currently implied for 4.8 runs. He has solid splits versus righties: He has a .349 wOBA, .161 ISO, and .447 slugging percentage in the last year. He’s been hitting the ball well recently: He’s averaged a batted-ball distance of 213 feet, an exit velocity of 92 MPH, and a hard-hit rate of 36 percent. As is the trend today, he’s just too cheap on FD for his spot; he’s only $3,400.
Another leadoff batter? I feel like we have to at this point. Brian Dozier is projected to bat first for a Twins team currently implied for 4.5 runs. He’s been crushing the ball lately, mostly because he always crushes the ball; he’s averaged a batted-ball distance of 222 feet, an exit velocity of 91 MPH, and a hard-hit rate of 52 percent in his last 13 games. Opposing pitcher Matt Boyd owns a 1.679 HR/9 rate in the last year and Dozier is always a candidate to go yard.
Good luck today!
