This week’s prime time slate includes only two games that seem similar in terms of Vegas data:
- Packers-Vikings: 43 total, two-point spread
- Eagles-Bears: 42 total, 3.5-point spread
But despite looking similar, they’re probably not actually very similar: Green Bay and Minnesota both have potential top-10 defenses, whereas Philly and Chicago . . . well, they have some holes.
This dynamic should make the PT slate fun. Let’s jump in.
Quarterbacks
Opponent Plus/Minus (DK): +4.2, Carson Wentz
Both QBs in this matchup — Wentz and Jay Cutler — are really intriguing for this specific slate. They’re at similar price points on DK — $5,500 and $5,700, respectively — but there just aren’t many skill-position players you’d want to pay up for. As a result, a lot of users will likely see their remaining salary, look at Aaron Rodgers‘ name, and slot him in. I get it: It’s really hard to fade Rodgers in a two-game slate in which he’s by far the best quarterback.
However, Rodgers’ matchup is a much harder one than either Wentz’s or Cutler’s, as highlighted by Opponent Plus/Minus. In the past year, Chicago has allowed 4.2 DK points over salary-based expectations to QBs. Philly’s defense is (supposedly) better this year, but in the last year they’ve allowed 3.5 points over expectations to QBs. Wentz does have a really low projected floor of 3.9 DK points, but his projected ceiling is only 2.8 points lower than Rodgers’.
Projected Floor (FD): 8.0, Aaron Rodgers
But if you want to take the approach of safety at QB and volatility elsewhere in this slate, that’s definitely understandable. After Week 1, the Vikings rank first in the NFL against the run but 18th against the pass. It’s hard to put a lot of stock into a single week’s worth of data, but I think that statistic is notable because of Minnesota’s Week 1 opponent: Tennessee. The Titans have completely sold out to being a run-heavy offense with DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry. And, despite that, the Vikings were still able to stifle them and be the best run defense of Week 1.
The point I’m trying to make is this: It’s hard to imagine that the Packers will attempt to beat the Vikings by running the ball down their throats. Rather, they’ll likely let Rodgers go to work, which in theory gives him a solid floor for this game. He’ll easily be the highest-owned guy in this small slate and while it’s still fine to roster him — I mean, he has the highest-projected floor and ceiling among the four QBs — it will be important to differentiate your lineups elsewhere.
Running Backs
Rushing Market Share in Week 1: 85.0 percent, Jeremy Langford
Per the Week 1 Snapshot, Langford owned 85 percent of the Bears’ rushes, and that included Cutler’s scrambling. For better or for worse, the Bears are rolling with Langford as their every-down back. Backup Ka’Deem Carey received only five percent of their rushes in Week 1 and received no passing targets. Meanwhile, Langford was also involved in the passing game, receiving 14.81 percent of the Bears’ targets. We’ve said it a million times before and we likely will a million times again: For running backs, opportunity is almost the only thing that matters.
Rushing Success Rate: 54.8 percent, Ryan Mathews
Adrian Peterson will definitely be the highest-owned RB in this small slate, despite his awful showing in Week 1:
It’s harder to use your salary cap in small slates and people will naturally want to fit in both Rodgers and Peterson because of their talent. Finding lower-owned options who could outperform them is key. Mathews could outperform Peterson.
In the last year, Mathews has posted the slate’s best rushing success rate — the percentage of plays that increased a team’s win probability. Further, his matchup is incredibly enticing: The Bears allowed Lamar Miller to rush for 106 yards last week and they finished 2015 as the worst defense versus the run, per Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric. Mathews was solid enough in Week 1, finishing with 13.7 DK points. More importantly, Mathews received a large share of rushes: 64.71 percent of the rushes on 22 attempts.
Wide Receivers
Opponent Plus/Minus (DK): +3.1, Bears WRs
This is just the perfect spot for Alshon Jeffery. Last week he surprisingly received only six targets — a 22.22 percent market share — but that’s likely to tick up. He averaged nine targets per game a season ago. Even with the low volume, Alshon returned value: He posted four receptions for 105 yards — a silly 26.2 yards-per-attempt average. Philly was the second-worst team against WRs a season ago: They allowed 3.1 DK points over expectations, which was only behind the Steelers’ poor mark of 4.4. The Eagles’ secondary is supposedly better this year, but dealing with Alshon is a tough task.
Target Market Share in Week 1: 27.03 percent, Randall Cobb
Of WRs in this slate, it’s actually the Eagles’ Jordan Matthews who owned the highest percentage of his team’s targets in Week 1 at 35.9 percent. And he’s a really solid play both in this slate and Week 2 in general. But I do want to talk about the Packers’ target distribution last week. Jordy Nelson is still reintegrating himself back into the offense, and he got 24.3 percent of the team’s targets. Really surprising is that Davante Adams received 18.9 percent of the targets. Cobb and Jordy will be highly-owned in this spot along with Alshon. And it’s hard to trust Adams after a disappointing 2015 despite the opportunity for more. However, Adams is an intriguing pivot away from the two stud receivers as he’s an underrated part of this offense. And, yes, I know I just turned a Cobb blurb into an Adams blurb. Oh well.
Tight Ends
Target Market Share in Week 1: 23.07, Eagles TEs
Last week, the Eagles tight ends — Zach Ertz and Brent Celek — combined for a 23.07 percent target share. Of course, Ertz accounted for 20.51 percent of that. But . . . he’s out this week against the Bears, which means that Celek is in line for an expanded role. Tight end is rough in this slate, but Celek boasts the second-highest projected ceiling on FD (9.3) and the highest Projected Plus/Minus (+2.7). Ertz outsnapped him 60 to 38 last week, but he should be up over 60 this week given Ertz’s absence.
Touchdown Market Share: 35.7 percent, Kyle Rudolph
In the past year, Rudolph has owned 35.7 percent of the Vikings’ passing touchdowns. He was very involved in Minnesota’s offense in Week 1, accumulating eight targets, and that should at least stay the same with Sam Bradford now starting. If anything, we should probably see an increase in his efficiency: He caught only four of his targets for 65 yards last week. Given that the prime time slate is so small, it’s possible that only one tight end will get in the end zone, and he’ll be necessary to have on your roster if you want to take down a GPP. Again, the tight end options suck in this slate, but Rudolph might have the best chance of scoring that TD.
Good luck!
