There are 16 games today, including a Pirates-Reds double-header. For the purposes of this article, we’ll include only the first matchup in our analysis. Let’s jump in.
Pitchers
Rangers righty Yu Darvish gets the Athletics, who are currently implied by Vegas for 3.5 runs but have been on a bit of an offensive heater lately. They’ve scored 28 runs in their last three games combined. Darvish’s advanced data has been really good lately: He’s allowed a batted-ball distance of 196 feet, an exit velocity of 89 miles per hour, and a hard-hit rate of 26 percent, and he’s induced ground-balls at a 67 percent clip. His 7.5 K Prediction is the slate’s third-highest mark and he boasts a day-high seven FanDuel Pro Trends.
Cubs ace Jake Arrieta faces a Brewers team currently implied for 3.6 runs. They’re a team to target when selecting pitchers, as their projected lineup has a very low team Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) at .300 and very high .301 SO/AB rate. Despite poor results . . .
. . . Arrieta’s recent advanced stats are solid: He’s allowed a batted-ball distance of 188 feet, an exit velocity of 89 MPH, a fly-ball rate of 17 percent, and a hard-hit rate of 28 percent. He owns the day’s second-highest K Prediction at 7.9. I’m not sure where his ownership will be — he’s the most expensive pitcher and his results have been really poor lately — but if he’s possibly low-owned then he’s an elite play in guaranteed prize pools.
Boston lefty David Price has been rolling lately:
His advanced stats match: He’s allowed a batted-ball distance of 188 feet, an exit velocity of 87 MPH, a line-drive rate of 12 percent, and a hard-hit rate of 21 percent in his last three starts. He’s facing a Yankees team currently implied for 3.5 runs. His 6.2 K Prediction is fairly average today but he hasn’t been below seven strikeouts in any of his last five games. He’ll be highly-owned for sure.
Cleveland righty Carlos Carrasco faces a Tigers team currently implied for 3.7 runs. He’s coming off a start in which he got crushed, allowing eight hits and five runs in just 3.2 innings against the White Sox. As you’d expect, his recent advanced stats suck: He’s allowed an exit velocity of 93 MPH and a hard-hit rate of 45 percent. He’s at home in a good park (73 Park Factor) and has a pitcher-friendly umpire behind home plate in Mike Everitt, but there’s a lot of risk here. He’s a GPP-only play, especially given his price tag on FD at $10,200.
If you’re looking for a bargain pitcher, the Mets’ Seth Lugo is your guy. Just look at his starts this season:
His recent advanced stats aren’t quite as good, but they’re still solid enough: He’s allowed a batted-ball distance of 205 feet, an exit velocity of 88 MPH, and a hard-hit rate of 36 percent in his last two games. He’s facing a Twins team currently implied for 3.7 runs. He’s a great play on either site, but FD has been a little more aggressive bumping his salary up: He’s $7,500 on FD but only $5,900 on DK still.
Giants righty Jeff Samardzija is at home (perfect Park Factor of 100) facing a Cardinals team currently implied for 3.6 runs. He’s been a little up and down lately:
And his advanced stats are fairly average: He’s allowed a batted-ball distance of 93 MPH, an exit velocity of 89 MPH, and a hard-hit rate of 35 percent. His 5.6 K Prediction is fairly average, too. That’s just Samardzija: He’s an average play all around but has a fair salary at $8,000.
In the early Reds-Pirates game, Cincinnati’s Anthony DeSclafani is certainly a high-risk, high-reward option. The Pirates are currently implied to score 4.2 runs and this game is a pick’em. Further, DeSclafani hasn’t been great lately: He’s allowed a batted-ball distance of 218 feet, an exit velocity of 92 MPH, a fly-ball rate of 36 percent, and a hard-hit rate of 39 percent. However, he does have the highest K Prediction of any pitcher today at 8.6. Again, high-risk but potentially high-reward.
Pitching is pretty top-heavy today, but I’ll mention one more GPP flyer in Gio Gonzalez. He’s facing a Braves team currently implied for 4.1 runs. He got lit up two games ago by these very Braves, allowing eight hits and six runs in just three innings pitched as he scored -2.05 DK points. However, his advanced stats aren’t as bad as you’d expect given that start: He’s allowed a batted-ball distance of 187 feet, an exit velocity of 90 MPH, and a hard-hit rate of 25 percent. Again, we’re stretching a bit here because the slate is so top-heavy with SP options, but Gio isn’t the worst SP you could roster.
Stacks
Starting on FanDuel, the highest-rated four-man stack in the CSURAM88 Model is a 1-2-3-4 straight stack of the Rockies.
The Rockies are currently implied for 7.1 runs, a mark 1.1 runs higher than any other team’s. They will be incredibly chalky today, and for good reason.
After them, the highest-rated five-man DK stack is a 1-2-3-4-8 stack of the Red Sox.
Jumping to the eighth spot instead of going with a straight 1-2-3-4-5 stack is a nice way to be contrarian. The Red Sox are currently implied for 5.6 runs.
Batters
Jean Segura is currently projected to bat leadoff for a Diamondbacks team implied for 4.7 runs. His splits are fine: He has a .363 wOBA, .170 Isolated Power (ISO), and .489 slugging percentage against righties in the last year. He’s been hitting the ball well lately: He’s averaged a batted-ball distance of 210 feet, an exit velocity of 93 MPH, and a hard-hit rate of 37 percent. But the most important factor here is his price: He’s only $3,500 on FD.
Sticking with the second baseman theme: Washington’s Daniel Murphy is projected to bat third for a team currently implied for 5.5 runs. He has awesome splits versus righties: He has a .420 wOBA, .270 ISO, and .623 slugging percentage in the last year. He’s also been destroying the ball lately, as highlighted by his 249-foot batted-ball distance, 94 MPH exit velocity, and 45 percent hard-hit rate. He faces Atlanta’s Josh Collmenter, who owns the third-worst HR/9 rate today at 1.692.
The Dodgers’ Corey Seager has been struggling lately:
However, his advanced stats suggest things are going to trend back up soon: He has a batted-ball distance of 214 feet, an exit velocity of 92 MPH, a line-drive rate of 44 percent, and a hard-hit rate of 42 percent. His long-term splits against righties are good, too: He has a .405 wOBA, .234 ISO, and .571 slugging percentage in the last year. Oh, yeah — he’s at Chase Field tonight. He’s been down, but he’s an elite talent and could have a massive breakout game at any time.
On the other side of this matchup, Jake Lamb is projected to bat cleanup for an Arizona team currently implied for 4.7 runs. He has significant lefty-righty splits but is against a righty today: He has a .373 wOBA, .276 ISO, and .550 slugging percentage against them in the last year. His advanced stats lately have been excellent: He’s averaged a batted-ball distance of 236 feet, an exit velocity of 94 MPH, a fly-ball rate of 41 percent, and a hard-hit rate of 38 percent. Stacking the Dodgers-Diamondbacks game instead of Padres-Rockies is an intriguing GPP contrarian move.
Good luck today!
