Friday’s main slate starts at 7:05pm ET and includes 14 games. There’s an earlier game at 2:20pm included in each site’s all-day slate. Hopefully if you throw some DraftKings tournament lineups in the all-day slate to adjust later and fade the first game, some old batter doesn’t go off for six hits and three home runs. I’m glaring at you, Matt Forte.
Pitchers
Nationals righty ace Max Scherzer faces a Braves team currently implied by Vegas for 3.0 runs. Even at high salaries, Scherzer has been rolling lately (aside from a poor game at Coors Field):
His advanced stats recently are elite: He’s allowed a batted-ball exit velocity of 86 miles per hour and a hard-hit rate of 13 percent. The Braves don’t strike out that often — their .204 SO/AB rate is third-lowest in the slate — but Scherzer is such a strikeout stud that he still boasts a K Prediction of 8.2. He’s the supreme chalk today, but do note that he’s $11,000 on FanDuel and has a 99 percent Bargain Rating there. On DraftKings, he’s way up at $13,700.
Indians righty Corey Kluber matches up against a Detroit team implied for 3.4 runs. Like Scherzer, he’s also been incredible lately:
His advanced stats match: In his last two starts, he’s allowed an exit velocity of 87 MPH and a hard-hit rate of 16 percent. Batters haven’t been able to touch Scherzer or Kluber lately. Kluber has a K Prediction of 7.3, which is the fifth-highest mark today. He has the same pricing dynamic: He’s much cheaper on FD at $10,900 and has a 97 percent Bargain Rating there.
White Sox lefty Chris Sale seems like he’s in the same group with Scherzer and Kluber today: He faces a Royals team currently implied for 3.4 runs, he has a K Prediction of 7.5, and his recent Plus/Minus graph looks just as solid:
However, his advanced stats recently are terrible: He’s allowed a batted-ball distance of 225 feet, an exit velocity of 95 MPH, and a hard-hit rate of 55 percent. Pitchers with those marks have historically . . . well, just take a look (courtesy of our Trends tool):
That’s not good. Considering that he’s around the same price point as the guys listed above, I’d reserve Sale only for contrarian tournament lineups.
Matt Moore is at home (perfect Park Factor of 100) facing a Cardinals team currently implied for 3.7 runs. His last four games have been a bit up and down, but look at those situations. Back-to-back starts at Coors and Chase is tough:
His advanced stats are a bit mixed, too: He’s allowed a batted-ball distance of 229 feet, an exit velocity of 91 MPH (both bad), and a hard-hit rate of 24 percent (good). This matchup isn’t ideal — the Cards’ projected lineup boasts the third-highest Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) in the slate at .340 — but Moore is back at home and is relatively cheap at $8,200 on DK and $8,000 on FD.
Royals righty Ian Kennedy opposes Sale and the White Sox, who are currently implied for 3.7 runs. He’s a dog (+114) in this matchup but has been superior to Sale recently: He’s allowed a batted-ball distance of 197 feet, an exit velocity of 88 MPH, and a hard-hit rate of 28 percent. His 6.6 K Prediction is fairly average today, but he’s cheap ($8,500 on FD) and will be low-owned going up against Sale.
Seattle righty Felix Hernandez is facing an Astros team currently implied for 3.9 runs. He pitched really well for a stretch before coming back down to earth . . .
But the issue for Felix today is that his salary hasn’t dropped enough with his recent play. He is a better value on DK at $8,000 but is just way too expensive on FD at $9,900. He’s allowed a hard-hit rate of only 20 percent in his last two games, but some other marks — his batted-ball distance of 216 feet and exit velocity of 91 MPH, for example — are more concerning. He’s a DK-only tournament play today.
Rangers southpaw Cole Hamels opposes an Oakland team currently implied for 3.8 runs. The real story here is that the Athletics are implied for at least 3.8 runs right now. That’s incredible. Part of that is likely due to Hamels’ recent awful play:
In his last two games, he’s allowed a hard-hit rate of 45 percent. However, there are positive indicators: He’s induced ground balls at a 62 percent clip and allowed an exit velocity of 89 MPH in that same time frame. There’s risk, but this is a matchup against the A’s. There’s also immense reward. Hamels is a prime GPP pivot away from Scherzer and Kluber.
The last pitcher I’ll mention is Cubs righty John Lackey, who faces a Milwaukee squad currently implied for 4.2 runs. Lackey has been solid lately: He’s allowed a batted-ball distance of 169 feet, an exit velocity of 90 MPH, a fly-ball rate of 30 percent, and a hard-hit rate of 33 percent. Milwaukee owns the slate’s highest SO/AB rate of .309. Lackey’s 8.2 K Prediction is tied with Scherzer’s as the highest today. The Vegas data here isn’t ideal, but pitchers versus the Brewers are always in play in guaranteed prize pools.
Stacks
We’re back at Coors Field. That means they will likely dominate the Stacking tool . . . and that’s exactly what we see. They take the top-four five-man DK stacks in the CSURAM88 Model. Here’s the top one, which is a 1-2-3-4-5 straight stack:
The Rockies are currently implied for a slate-high 6.7 runs.
On FanDuel, they own the top-three spots. After them, the top-rated four-man stack is a 1-2-3-4 straight stack of the Blue Jays:
The Blue Jays are currently implied for 4.8 runs and could be an intriguing pivot away from the Rockies-Padres game, which will surely bring high ownership in GPPs.
Batters
Speaking of the Padres: Ryan Schimpf is projected to bat fifth against Rockies righty Tyler Chatwood. Schimpf is a rare no-splits lefty and hits righties very well: He has a .387 wOBA, .156 Isolated Power (ISO), and .583 slugging percentage over the last year. He has impressive advanced stats lately and that’s after playing at the worst batter’s park in San Francisco: He has a batted-ball distance of 264 feet, an exit velocity of 92 MPH, a fly-ball rate of 80 percent (!!!), and a hard-hit rate of 44 percent in his last 10 games. You should probably play him at Coors.
Dustin Pedroia is projected to bat leadoff for a Boston team currently implied for 5.6 runs. He’s another no-splits guy and hits righties well: He has a .371 wOBA, .144 ISO, and .472 slugging percentage in the last year. His advanced stats aren’t Schimpf-level, but they’re solid: He has a batted-ball distance of 216 feet, an exit velocity of 92 MPH, and a hard-hit rate of 39 percent in his last 12 games.
Lefty Joey Votto is projected to bat third for a Reds team currently implied for 4.8 runs. He crushes righties: He has a .409 wOBA, .231 ISO, and .543 slugging percentage in the last year. He’s been hitting the ball well lately: He has a batted-ball distance of 241 feet and an exit velocity of 93 MPH in his last 12 games. He faces Pirates righty Ryan Vogelsong, who hasn’t been so great lately . . .
Votto should go underowned tonight, given the Coors series.
Brad Miller is a lefty who is projected to bat cleanup at Camden Yards. He’s only $3,200 on FD. He’s on the right side of his splits today: He has a .347 wOBA, .262 ISO, and .518 slugging percentage in the last year. His advanced stats are pretty average — he has a hard-hit rate of 30 percent in his last 12 starts — but I’m not sure that’s important: He’s $3,200, batting cleanup, a lefty, and at Camden Yards. That’s a +EV combination.
Good luck today!
