If I asked you to guess the line for this game after watching the Rams play the 49ers late on Monday night, I’m sure you wouldn’t have been anywhere close to the Seahawks only getting 3.5 points on the road. Both teams will look to bounce back from subpar Week 1 performances in this divisional matchup.
Seattle Seahawks
Writer: Bryan Mears
QB – Russell Wilson
Wilson practiced Wednesday, but per our free News page: “Wilson’s sprained ankle isn’t going to keep him from playing, but it is a concern for his mobility against a talented Rams front seven. He was not moving well against the Dolphins in Week 1, finishing with four carries for just 16 yards.”
Wilson’s ankle injury easily takes him out of cash consideration, if he was ever there for you this week. While the Rams looked abominable last week against the 49ers, this is a very talented defense that last year finished in the top-10 against both the run and the pass, per Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric. They were actually the stingiest defense to QBs last year on FD: They held opposing QBs 2.2 points under expectations on the year. Given his price (he’s the fifth-most expensive QB on FD at $8,400), injury risk, and low Projected Plus/Minus of +0.1, Wilson should only be considered as a GPP flyer.
RB – Thomas Rawls
Per our News page again: “Rawls’ ankle is 100 percent and he’s ready to resume his starting job.” That is certainly good news for a guy who proved to be a stud last year: He boasted the highest yards-per-attempt mark at 5.5 among starting RBs. His 60.5 percent rush success rate is not only the best mark among starting RBs — it’s just a stupid-good mark.
Because of the matchup against the hypothetically-stingy LA front seven and the fact that he might still split carries with Christine Michael if the Seahawks want to work Rawls back slowly, he’s probably out of cash-game consideration. However, given his elite talent and low price tag — he’s $5,500 on DK and $6,600 on FD — Rawls is an excellent GPP option. There’s a scenario in which Wilson’s ankle continues to bother him and the Seahawks ride with Rawls and give him a massive workload.
RB – Christine Michael
Michael is no longer the starter with Rawls’ return, but unfortunately he’s still priced as if he’s due for the majority of the carries. He holds a -3.0 Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings, which is one of the worst marks in the slate.
WR – Doug Baldwin
Even if Baldwin were due for regression this year after a blazing hot stretch in 2015, it was encouraging to see his continued heavy involvement in the offense: He led all receivers with 12 targets and tied Jermaine Kearse for the most offensive snaps in Week 1.
Baldwin still has impressive market share stats: In the past year for the Seahawks — including last week — he has owned 44.1 percent of their receiving touchdowns and 27.7 percent of their receiving yards. He’s involved in the red zone (1.31 opportunities per game) and converts at a very high rate (38.1 percent) when he gets the chances. He’s in a bit of a weird spot this week: He has a low DK Projected Plus/Minus of +1.0 yet we have him projected for between 9 and 12 percent ownership. He’s a fine GPP play, but perhaps one on whom you should not be overweight.
WR – Tyler Lockett
Lockett is actually the highest-rated Seahawks player currently in the DK Bales Model. He is only $4,600 there this week and is projected for between two and four percent ownership. Despite the concerns about Jermaine Kearse receiving a much higher number of first-team reps than Lockett during the preseason — and again, Kearse did tie Baldwin for the most offensive snaps among skill position players — Lockett saw a higher percentage of Wilson’s targets (20.93 percent). He has growing involvement in the offense and is a very interesting GPP play this week — especially paired with the Seattle D/ST for some potential double-dip action.
WR – Jermaine Kearse
Kearse is also fairly intriguing, as he sees a ton of snaps (as mentioned above) and received 16.28 percent of Wilson’s targets in Week 1. He turned those seven targets into five receptions for 57 yards. That’s not groundbreaking production, but it was 10.7 points — and at only $3,500 on DK he needs just 7.13 points to hit value. He doesn’t have the safety of Baldwin or the upside of Lockett, but Kearse is a cheap, very low-owned GPP flyer who could pay dividends some week and help differentiate a lineup.
TE – Jimmy Graham
Graham played in 20.7 percent of the Seahawks’ offensive snaps in Week 1 compared to 78.0 percent for Luke Willson. Until they remove his snap count, he shouldn’t be on your DFS radar.
Los Angeles Rams
Writer: Bryan Mears
QB – Case Keenum
I have a theory. If you google a quarterback’s name and the first article that pops up is from NFL.com titled Jeff Fisher: Case Keenum is still the starting QB, either that QB should not be the starting QB or that coach should not be the coach.
There’s not much to say about Keenum: He was awful in Week 1 against the 49ers. He finished the game 17 of 35 for 130 yards and two interceptions. He had a quarterback rating of 34.2. The question here isn’t whether Keenum is a viable DFS option. That is certainly not a question. No, the question here is just how much Keenum will hurt the potential fantasy viability of guys like Todd Gurley and Tavon Austin. Heck, even the Rams D/ST.
If the 49ers defense so thoroughly dominated Keenum, what will the Seahawks defense do?
RB – Todd Gurley
Again, the Rams’ issues are systemic. Gurley definitely wasn’t great in Week 1: He totaled 47 rush yards on 17 carries, giving him a putrid 2.76 YPC mark. Gurley is in a tough spot this year and it’s one we probably should have foreseen a little bit last week: PFF ranked the Rams’ offensive line as the second-worst unit in the league. For reference, the Seahawks were ranked as the worst. I’m sure you can connect the dots on the difference between those two teams. Gurley doesn’t have R-Wilz to keep defenses honest.
Mostly because of game script, RBs perform much better as favorites than dogs.
This is another issue for Gurley, as 1) the game script this week is awful for him (they’re obviously dogs) and 2) they’ll likely be dogs for a lot of games this year if this type of play continues. And for the Jeff-Fisher-Always-Runs-Even-If-They’re-Down-Crowd, Gurley played on only 60.7 percent of the Rams’ offensive snaps in Week 1.
Week 2’s matchup obviously isn’t a great one — the Seahawks have allowed 0.5 points below expectations to RBs in the last year (the third-stingiest mark) — but there is a silver lining: Gurley will definitely be very low-owned.
RB – Benny Cunningham
In a game that would theoretically be good for Cunningham — one in which the Rams are down in, that is — he received only 11 snaps and got 2.86 percent of their passing targets. Pass.
WR – Tavon Austin
I know, I’m being negative. Here’s some actual positivity: Austin received 12 targets, which was the eighth-highest mark of all pass catchers in Week 1. Back to negativity: He managed to reel only four of those in for a total of 13 yards. Yes, he really had 13 yards on 12 targets. But moving on . . . we know that targets and opportunity are incredibly important for DFS success. Because of the lack of receiving talent around him and the huge four-year, $42-million contract the Rams signed him to, Austin will continue to receive get targets.
The Seahawks’ secondary is an imposing one: They ranked third against the pass last year per DVOA. According to our Matchups tool, Austin will start outside on the left matched up against Jeremy Lane, but he will move around: In Week 2, five of his targets were short left throws and six of them were short right throws. As you probably know, Richard Sherman is over on the right. Tavon is cheap — he’s only $6,300 on FD — and we’re projecting him for 0 to 1 percent ownership. Still, he should be used in only contrarian GPP lineups.
WR – Kenny Britt
Britt actually wasn’t awful in Week 1, which is the highest praise we can bestow upon a Rams player right now. He turned his six targets into four catches for 67 yards. That’s decent. In Week 2, he’ll line up outside against Richard Sherman. That’s another pass.
WR – Brian Quick
Quick was a little more involved in the offense than I anticipated he would be, reeling in three catches on five targets for 23 yards. The best way to beat the Seahawks’ defense is in the middle of the field — slot guys and tight ends have historically had the best success — but, again, Keenum is the QB. Until Jared Goff takes over or something dramatic changes with this team, they’re GPP darts at best in most weeks, especially this week.
TE – Lance Kendricks
Kendricks is near minimum price — he’s $2,900 on FD and $4,600 on FD — and the Seahawks have allowed 1.4 FD points over expectations to tight ends in the last year. But, still, Kendricks received 8.57 percent of the targets in a Keenum-led offense in Week 1. Look elsewhere.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
