Chiefs at Texans
The Texans come into Week 2 as 2.5-point favorites over the visiting Chiefs. The Texans are currently implied to score 22.75 points and the Chiefs are implied for just 20.25 points. There’s a 90 percent chance of rain in Houston, but thankfully NRG Stadium is a dome.
Kansas City Chiefs
Writer: Joe Holka
QB – Alex Smith
Pro Football Focus recently ranked all 32 secondaries entering the 2016 season. Smith’s opponent this week, the Texans, ranked 10th. His current 26-point projected ceiling is the fifth-lowest mark on the slate, and he currently rates dead last in the Adam Levitan Player Model for DraftKings. However, last week he did throw two touchdowns and add one on the ground in a come-from-behind victory against the Chargers.
Per our Trends tool, when priced from $7,000 to $7,400 on DK and in games where the Chiefs have an implied point total between 18 and 22, Smith has provided a +3.61 Plus/Minus with 100 percent Consistency. At projected ownership of two to four percent, Smith (with a frightening 5.8-point projected floor) is a GPP flyer at best against a Texans team that gave up the fourth-fewest DraftKings points to quarterbacks last year.
RB – Spencer Ware
Spencer Ware led the Chiefs to a huge comeback win on his way to accumulating 199 yards and a touchdown on just 18 touches. It ended up being a terrible game script for Ware, yet he was outstanding in the passing game with eight targets for a 17.78 target share. The Chiefs ran plays at the second-lowest pace in the league last year at 29.94 seconds/play but had the sixth-highest percentage of total runs (46.0 percent) and the ninth-most run plays of 10-plus yards.
He’s likely to be chalky again in Week 2 against the Texans, and deservedly so. His eight targets (even though most of them came when the Chiefs needed to throw) demonstrate Ware’s potential as a true three-down workhorse. And in case you are scared off him this week as a road underdog, in games he has had five-plus carries in his career he has fared pretty well:
RB – Charcandrick West
West was given the same amount of snaps as Ware against the Chargers but was out-touched 18 to 9 and out-gained 199 yards to 23. Ware may actually be that much better than West and the Chiefs are starting to notice. West will remain active in the passing game, but as long as Jamaal Charles is out, Ware is going to be the primary back in Kansas City. West has a nice salary on DK of $3,500, but he has an extremely low projected floor of 3.1 points. Houston gave up the eighth-fewest points to RBs on DK last year; they are certainly not a cakewalk, especially for a back-up RB.
WR – Jeremy Maclin
Maclin had just a 13.3 percent target share in Week 1. This week according to our Matchups tool, Maclin will primarily line up opposite Johnathan Joseph (PFF’s fifth-highest rated corner in Week 1). The Houston defense finished in the top-five in Plus/Minus allowed to wide receivers in 2015. They were also the seventh-best team against opposing WR1s, per Football Outsiders. Road receivers at Houston averaged a -2.29 Plus/Minus with only 16.1 percent Consistency on FanDuel in 2015:
WR – Chris Conley
Last year, the Chiefs scored the fifth-most first-quarter points in the league (5.8) and had the sixth-highest second-half time of possession rate (53.31 percent). They want to control the ball and establish the run. That’s not good news for Conley, the team’s current second receiver, although he did have a higher target share than Maclin in Week 1 (15.56 percent). As good as the Texans are against wide receivers, they were actually very poor against WR2s last season — 23rd in the league, per Football Outsiders. That said, even at $4,600 on FanDuel, relying on Smith to support more than one WR in the passing game seems like a stretch.
WR – Albert Wilson
Wilson will start in the slot for the Chiefs. He had five targets last week that he turned into three receptions for a single yard. That about sums up how excited we should be about the No. 3 receiver in Kansas City.
TE – Travis Kelce
Kelce posted a solid 6-74-0 stat line in Week 1 with a 15.56 percent target share. This week he faces a Houston defense that not only shut down wide receivers in 2015 but also tight ends: They finished as the fifth-best defense in Opponent Plus/Minus allowed to the position. With yet another tough matchup for Maclin in this game, Kelce could see additional targets for the second straight week. That said, the Texans gave up just five touchdowns to tight ends all last season.
Houston Texans
Writer: Ian Hartitz
QB – Brock Osweiler
Osweiler’s first game in Houston would’ve looked a lot better if Will Fuller had hung on to what seemed to be a sure-fire 80-plus yard touchdown. Still, Osweiler was able to get the ball into the hands of his playmakers. His upside isn’t high, as evidenced by his 6.6 yards-per-attempt average, which ranked just 22nd in Week 1. Yes, Fuller coming down with the long touchdown would have changed this story, but this is the same receiver who finished 88th out of 96 receivers in drop rate during his final year at Notre Dame. Osweiler ranked just 30th in the NFL with 3.6 deep ball attempts per game in 2015 and is currently leading just the 24th-ranked offense in Offensive DVOA. The Chiefs defense allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks in 2015.
RB – Lamar Miller
Miller received 32 touches during the Texans’ victory over the Bears. This was eight more touches than Miller had ever received in a single game and far surpassed his 13.3 touch average from his four years with the Dolphins, per PFR. He’ll face a Chiefs defense that finished first in Plus/Minus allowed to running backs in 2015, although both Melvin Gordon and Danny Woodhead finished as top-10 fantasy running backs in Week 1 against the Chiefs, per fantasypros.com. Miller is priced at $7,700 on FanDuel with a 99 percent Bargain Rating; he has the sixth-highest projected ceiling and floor among all running backs.
RB – Alfred Blue
Blue played three total snaps in Week 1.The Texans only handed the ball off to guys without the last name Miller three times against the Bears and this shouldn’t change much in Week 2. Blue won’t be a relevant fantasy option unless Miller is forced to miss time.
WR – DeAndre Hopkins
Hopkins pulled in his first touchdown of 2016 against the Bears in Week 1 and continued his dominance at home:
As our Trends tool shows, his +4.83 Plus/Minus is combined with 56.3 percent Consistency. Hopkins surprisingly finished behind Fuller in targets last week, but this doesn’t change the fact that he is locked in as Osweiler’s No. 1 receiver. The now-proven vertical presence of Fuller could lead to less double-teams for Hopkins. Not that he needs it, though: His 61 percent contested catch rate ranked 16th among all wide receivers in 2015, per playerprofiler.com
WR – Will Fuller
Fuller turned his team-high 11 targets into 107 receiving yards and a touchdown in the season opener against the Bears. He also unsurprisingly dropped one would-be long touchdown, but his field-stretching ability undoubtedly helped a Texans offense that finished 2015 with the ninth-fewest pass plays of 25 yards or more. The Texans wasted no time making Fuller their deep threat, as he saw an aDOT (average depth of target) of 22.4 yards in Week 1, per PFF. He is priced at $4,200 on DraftKings with a 91 percent Bargain Rating, although his five to eight percent projected ownership is a bit higher than some similarly-priced receivers. Fuller will face a Chiefs secondary that didn’t have a cornerback ranked higher than 57th in Week 1 by PFF.
WR – Braxton Miller
Miller was on the field for just two less snaps than Fuller in Week 1 but was targeted eight fewer times. The Broncos primarily worked out of two-wide sets with Osweiler under center in 2015, and third receiver Andre Caldwell ended up with a target market share of just four percent. It’s encouraging for Miller to be on the field this much so early in his transition from quarterback, but despite his minimum DraftKings price tag there just doesn’t seem to be enough targets in the Texans’ offense to make Miller a fantasy option. He has a low 4.1-point projection.
TE – Ryan Griffin
Griffin’s two targets against the Bears are concerning for two reasons. First, he received just two targets. Second, C.J. Fiedorowicz, who is the Texans’ blocking tight end, also received two targets. Griffin is min-priced on DraftKings but faces a Chiefs defense that allowed the fewest average fantasy points to receivers in 2015. He won’t be anything more than a touchdown-dependent dart throw unless the Texans start racking up injuries at wide receiver.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
