The Lions are currently 5.5-point favorites in their matchup against the 0-1 Titans this Sunday. The Titans’ implied point total of 21 is one of the lower totals in Week 2, while the Lions’ implied point total of 26.5 is the fifth-highest in the slate. The Lions are now 1-0 in the post-Megatron era but will be tested by the Titans’ power-run offense.
Tennessee Titans
Writer: Ian Hartitz
QB – Marcus Mariota
Sunday will be Mariota’s first game in a dome since his first career start. Things went pretty well that afternoon in New Orleans:
It’s unlikely that Mariota will match his +21.73 Plus/Minus at Ford Field this Sunday (or face a secondary as bad as the Saints’), but he does have a good matchup against a Lions secondary that ranked 23rd in the league last year, per PFF. His matchup against the Lions’ defensive line is not as good, as the Lions have the fifth-best sack rate in the league; Mariota was the 33rd-rated quarterback against pressure in 2015.
The Titans uncharacteristically called the fifth-most pass plays in the league in Week 1, but this was likely more a result of the team’s 2.9 yards per attempt rather than an offensive philosophy change. Still, the Titans could once again throw a good amount as underdogs and Mariota’s 0.54 fantasy points per drop back was the sixth-highest rate among all quarterbacks in 2015. He has the third-highest projected ceiling among quarterbacks priced under $6,500.
RB – DeMarco Murray
Head coach Mike Mularkey stressed all offseason that the Titans would embrace a new power-run offensive approach and then proceeded to throw 41 passes against the Vikings in Week 1. Murray played 50 snaps as the clear No. 1 back; Derrick Henry was on the field for 21 snaps. The duo rushed for a combined 45 yards on 18 carries against PFF’s sixth-ranked front seven. Murray did lose a fumble and Henry had the longest gain for the Titans on a 29-yard catch-and-run, but the fact remains that Murray out-touched Henry 18 to 7. The Lions defense was tough against running backs in 2015, finishing in the top-eight in average Plus/Minus allowed to the position.
RB – Derrick Henry
Henry rushed for only three yards on five attempts against the Vikings but turned two receptions into 41 receiving yards. He demonstrated scary-good tackle-breaking ability, finishing with the second-highest juke rate among all running backs in Week 1, per playerprofiler.com. Still, Henry will need to carve out a larger role in the offense until he can be a viable fantasy play. His two to four percent projected ownership is tied for the highest among any running back with a DraftKings salary less than $4,000.
WR – Tajae Sharpe
Sharpe received 11 targets in Week 1, which was four more than any other Titans receiver and the most among all rookie WRs (tied with Will Fuller). Sharpe dropped a walk-in touchdown but still secured seven receptions for 76 receiving yards. Production may be harder to come by in Week 2, as he’ll see a lot of Lions cornerback Darius Slay, PFF’s 13th-highest graded corner from Week 1. However, Sharpe does have five DraftKings Pro Trends and his +3.8 Projected Plus/Minus is the fourth-highest among all wide receivers.
WR – Rishard Matthews
Matthews oddly received only 35 offensive snaps in Week 1, which was the third-highest among Titans WRs. He’s at best the third option in this offense behind Sharpe and Delanie Walker; he just doesn’t offer much upside, as evidenced by his 6.5 yard-per-target mark in Week 1 (121st among all wide receivers). Matthews could benefit if Slay shadows Sharpe, as none of the other Lions cornerbacks graded higher than 66th in Week 1. He’s priced at $3,300 on DraftKings with a 91 percent Bargain Rating.
WR – Harry Douglas
Douglas grabbed the Titans’ third (and possibly second?) receiver role in Week 1 by playing the second-most snaps of any Titans receiver besides Sharpe. Although he didn’t do much with his five targets, Douglas is by far the most proven Titans receiver under 35 years old. He’s averaged 11.4 PPR points per game in his 40 games with five or more targets over the past five seasons, but he may struggle to consistently accumulate targets in the Titans’ run-heavy offense. Douglas is cheaper than Matthews on DraftKings but is a very risky play with their receiver pecking order far from confirmed.
TE – Delanie Walker
Walker finished with just 42 yards on three receptions with five targets against the Vikings in Week 1. This was not enough usage for coach Mike Mularkey, who admitted earlier this week that the Titans should have gotten Walker more involved early in the game. He caught 94 balls and led all tight ends with 8.86 targets per game in 2015, and his 2.9 yards-after-catch average was the fourth-highest average among all tight ends. Walker has a nice matchup against a Lions defense that allowed 5.4 more DraftKings points than salary-based expectation to tight ends over the last 12 months — the worst mark in the league.
Detroit Lions
Writer: Ian Hartitz
QB – Matthew Stafford
Stafford ended his 2015 season on an absolute tear. Over the Lions’ final eight games he threw for 19 touchdowns and just two interceptions while completing 70 percent of his passes. The hot streak began when offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter shifted to a more short-pass oriented attack. This philosophy carried over into 2016, as Stafford’s average target depth was just 5.5 yards, and 65.6 percent of Stafford’s 341 passing yards came after the catch, per PFF. This, combined with Stafford’s +4.02 Plus/Minus at home over the past two seasons, gives him a tasty matchup against a Titans defense that finished 2015 as a bottom-five defense in Plus/Minus allowed to quarterbacks. Stafford is our top-ranked FanDuel quarterback in our Tournament Model and his +2.6 Projected Plus/Minus is the third-highest among all quarterbacks.
RB – Ameer Abdullah
PFF graded Abdullah as the ninth-best running back in Week 1 and his 1.35 fantasy points per opportunity was the third-highest rate in the league. Still, his ceiling will always be capped as long as Theo Riddick is around to eat up the Lions’ passing-down snaps. Abdullah did catch all five of his targets and scored a touchdown, but most of this came when Riddick was briefly sidelined with a head injury. Abdullah has the ability to produce, but the opportunity is lacking. He’s also facing a Titans defense that finished 2015 in the top-12 in both average fantasy points and Plus/Minus allowed to running backs.
RB – Theo Riddick
Riddick’s 99 targets in 2015 were the second-most among all running backs and he picked up right where he left off in Week 1. PFF’s third-highest graded running back only had 12 touches but scored twice and averaged a ridiculous 2.32 fantasy points per opportunity (tops among all running backs in Week 1). Riddick has averaged just 3.2 yards per carry in his three-year career, so his 6.4-yard average from last week will likely regress, but his 9.7-point projected floor in Week 2 is the highest among all running backs priced at $4,500 or less on DraftKings.
WR – Golden Tate
Tate underwhelmed in his first game as the Lions’ go-to receiver, but he could get back on track at home this Sunday:
His +4.37 Plus/Minus with 68.8 percent Consistency is very high over a 16-game sample and could continue against a Titans secondary that didn’t have a corner graded higher than 54th by PFF in Week 1. Tate should continue to benefit from the Lions’ offensive philosophy switch to shorter passes, as his 547 yards after the catch ranked fifth among all receivers in 2015, per playerprofiler.com. His seven DraftKings Pro Trends are the third-most among all wide receivers.
WR – Marvin Jones
In the first game of the post-Megatron era it was Jones, not Tate, who appeared to take over as Matthew Stafford’s No. 1 receiver. Jones saw 10 targets to Tate’s seven, and he out-gained him by 44 yards. In nine career games with eight or more targets, Jones has averaged a 5.67-70-.89 line, good for nearly 18 PPR fantasy points per game (per the Rotoviz Game Splits App). This is nearly 10 points higher than his average with less than eight targets per game and demonstrates the type of threat Jones can be if sufficiently involved in the offense. Jones is currently rated as a top-15 play on both DraftKings and FanDuel in our Tournament Model.
WR – Anquan Boldin
Eric Ebron, Riddick, and Abdullah were all above Boldin in Stafford’s pecking order in Week 1, as each was targeted five times and scored a red-zone touchdown. While the third-receiver role on a pass-happy offense would normally mean a lot of targets, the Lions running backs are so involved in the passing game that there aren’t many targets left for Boldin. He has the lowest projected floor among any receiver priced above $4,000 on DraftKings.
TE – Eric Ebron
Ebron was very efficient with his five targets against the Colts in Week 1, catching all five and averaging 3.12 fantasy points per target, the third-highest rate among all tight ends. His 9.2 yards-per-target mark was also highly ranked among tight ends, and it appears that Ebron was the Lions’ de-facto third-receiver behind Jones and Tate. Whether or not this status changes in the coming weeks remains to be seen, but he’ll have a great matchup this week against a Colts defense that finished 2015 in the bottom-eight in both average fantasy points and Plus/Minus allowed to tight ends.
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