The Chargers will host the Jaguars for their 2016 home opener and are currently three-point favorites. The underdog Jaguars have a current implied total of 22 points, while the now Keenan Allen-less Chargers have a current implied total of 25 points, the eighth-highest total in Week 2. There will be nothing but sunshine in San Diego at kickoff, and we could be looking at a shootout between these two pass-happy teams.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Writer: Ian Hartitz
Researcher: Zachary Rabinovitz
QB – Blake Bortles
Bortles produced 79 percent of his fantasy production when trailing in 2015, per sharpfootballstats.com. Considering the Jaguars ranked 22nd in Defensive DVOA in Week 1, Bortles could spend a lot more time trailing. The idea that this makes Bortles a bad quarterback is a bit misleading, as he has been excellent at pushing the ball down the field. The Jaguars were tied for second in 2015 with 39 pass plays of 25 yards or more, and Bortles finished third among all quarterbacks in air yards — the amount of yardage gained strictly from the depth of the throw. He’ll face a Chargers defense that finished 2015 in the bottom-eight in average Plus/Minus allowed to quarterbacks.
RB – T.J. Yeldon
Until Chris Ivory‘s status is more clear, Yeldon is the undisputed lead back in Jacksonville. He led all running backs with 63 snaps played in Week 1 and received 25 touches despite averaging just 2.76 yards per opportunity. Still, Yeldon’s five evaded tackles were the 11th-most among all running backs in Week 1, and he finished seventh among all running backs in 2015 with 6.5 evaded tackles per game. He has averaged 15.78 PPR points in his five career games with 15 or more carries, per the Rotoviz Game Splits App. Yeldon has a great matchup against a Chargers defense that allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to running backs in 2015, although his 13 to 16 percent projected ownership on DraftKings is tied for the third-highest in Week 2.
RB – Chris Ivory
Ivory was in the hospital from Sunday to Tuesday but has been released and is reportedly doing well. No timetable has been set for his return and he remains questionable for Sunday’s game against the Chargers. If Ivory is able to play, he should provide a boost to a Jaguars run offense that averaged just 1.8 yards per attempt on 26 carries against the Packers in Week 1. Even if he is unable to handle a large workload, he should be the Jaguars’ goal-line back — a role that led to him scoring the third-most touchdowns inside the five-yard line among all running backs in 2015, per PFR.
WR – Allen Robinson
Robinson is the undisputed No. 1 receiver in Jacksonville, but Julius Thomas may be pushing Allen Hurns for the role of Blake Bortles’ second-favorite target. Thomas missed four games in 2015, but his presence didn’t affect Robinson’s targets; in fact, it helped make him a more efficient receiver. With Thomas on the field, Robinson caught 58 percent of his targets. That is far superior to Robinson’s 38 percent catch rate without Thomas on the field, and overall, Robinson has averaged over five additional PPR points per game with Thomas. Robinson’s six DraftKings Pro Trends are tied for the seventh-most among all wide receivers and this game’s current implied Vegas total of 47 points is the fifth-highest in Week 2. ARob will have to deal with a strong trio of cornerbacks, as Casey Hayward, Brandon Flowers, and Jason Verrett all graded out as top-40 corners by PFF in Week 1.
WR – Allen Hurns
Hurns tied Julius Thomas for the second-most targets in the Jaguars’ season opener and was off to the races for a touchdown on one play if he hadn’t barely stepped out of bounds. He was a popular candidate for regression in 2016, but he may simply be very good at making big plays: His 2.15 fantasy points per target in 2015 ranked eighth among all wide receivers. The Chargers allowed their highest passer rating against passes in the deep middle of the field in 2015 — the same area that Bortles targeted Hurns more than any other receiver last season, per sharpfootballstats.com. His 18.3-point projected ceiling is the third-highest among all DraftKings receivers priced lower than $5,500.
WR – Marqise Lee
Lee saw four targets in Week 1 and dropped two of them. He’s currently an afterthought in the offense along with Rashad Greene. Lee’s -2.3 Projected Plus/Minus is seventh-worst among all non-minimum priced DraftKings receivers this week.
TE – Julius Thomas
Thomas faces a Chargers defense that could struggle against tight ends with the loss of safety Eric Weddle. The Jaguars showed a new-found interest in their walking-mismatch of a tight end, utilizing Thomas on 75 percent of the snaps in Week 1 and lining him up in nine different spots. In total, he caught all five of his targets and began to emerge as Bortles’ top target behind Robinson. Thomas’ 15.3-point projected ceiling is sixth-best among TEs in our Week 2 Models.
San Diego Chargers
Writer: Joe Holka
QB – Philip Rivers
The Chargers ran the most passing plays in the league (707) and had the sixth-highest percentage of pass plays (64.21 percent) last year. The short-to-intermediate passing game and dump-offs became an extension of the running game last year and, if Week 1 is any indication, 2016 will be no different. With Keenan Allen done for the year with a torn ACL suffered in Week 1, Rivers will again be without his top weapon in 2016. That said, there hasn’t been a huge drop off in his production with and without Allen since he entered the league.
The Jaguars’ defense looks improved after getting DE Dante Fowler back from last season’s torn ACL injury and adding PFF’s highest-graded draft-eligible corner last year in Jalen Ramsey. That said, the Jaguars’ defense owned the third-worst Opponent Plus/Minus mark to quarterbacks in 2015. Rivers’ current 34.7-point projected ceiling is fourth-best on the slate, and he currently rates third in the Bales Player Model for DraftKings. At projected ownership of two to four percent on DK, Rivers (with a frightening 5.9-point projected floor) is worth the risk.
RB – Melvin Gordon
Gordon saw just 12 of 217 touches come in the red zone last season en route to zero touchdowns on the year. In Week 1, Gordon saw a 50 percent rushing share in the red zone and converted both of the Chargers’ rush attempts inside the 10 for touchdowns. There are still concerning marks for Gordon, however: The game script couldn’t have been better for him — the Chargers were up 21-3 at the half — and Woodhead still had more rush attempts and nine more touches. Woodhead also out-snapped Gordon 50-23. The Chargers would rather build around Rivers and the shotgun formation than Gordon’s strengths. It seems Rivers trusts Woodhead far more, which makes Gordon a risky DFS play week-to-week.
RB – Danny Woodhead
Last year, Woodhead was given the most targets of any RB in the league in the red zone (15) and converted them into five touchdowns. He averaged 6.63 targets per game and saw a 20.8 percent target share in the red zone. In Week 1, Woodhead saw a 23.53 target share and was targeted in the red zone twice for a 28.6 percent red-zone target share. He converted his only target inside the 10 for a touchdown. Per the Rotoviz Game Splits App, Woodhead sees 1.29 more targets per game on average when Keenan Allen is not in the lineup. When targeting Woodhead, consider him on FD, where he holds a top-10 rating in the Tournament Model with an 89 percent Bargain Rating and two to four percent projected ownership.
WR – Travis Benjamin
Rivers doesn’t go deep often (he had the 16th-most deep balls last year on the most passing plays in the league) and the Chargers weren’t able to get Benjamin involved downfield in Week 1. His eight (seven of which came after Allen went out) targets look good on paper, however. At $4,400 on DraftKings, Benjamin is currently the third-highest rated WR in the Bales Player Model, right behind his teammate Tyrell Williams.
WR – Tyrell Williams
Speaking of Williams, his arrow has been pointing up since the preseason and should be on GPP radars. Both of his catches in Week 1 were over 30 yards, although one came on busted coverage. He has more speed and playmaking ability than Dontrelle Inman and currently has very high ratings in a majority of our Pro Player Models.
WR – Dontrelle Inman
Inman has seen DFS success when Allen has been hurt in the past. In those instances, he has averaged 55 yards and four receptions. Inman led all Chargers WRs in snaps last week (79 percent) but will be matched up against Ramsey (PFF’s highest-graded draft-eligible corner in 2015) in the slot. The rookie held Randall Cobb to a 6-57-0 stat line last week.
TE – Antonio Gates
Last year, Gates was second on the team in red-zone target market share (18.1 percent) and could see even more red-zone work after Allen’s injury. The matchup against Eric Berry (PFF’s seventh-best safety) was an extremely tough one in Week 1. He’s in a much better spot this week: He boasts the fifth-highest projected ceiling on FanDuel against a Jacksonville defense that gave up the sixth-most FanDuel points to TEs last year. Per our Trends tool, home favorite tight ends on FanDuel with similar salaries and point projections produced 4.31 points above expectation.
News Updates
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